UFC Fight Night: Holm vs. Correia Quick Picks
Welcome to another edition of the UFC Quick Picks! This is a rough card I will admit, as it starts at 1:30 AM on the West Coast, and takes place in good ‘ol Singapore. But there is still lots of money to be won, and I think there’s an edge to be had.
If you want FULL BREAKDOWNS of every single fight on this card, projections, rankings and more, you can find that in the Premium Section here. We’ve also launched the Beta version of the MMA LINEUP BUILDER which you can access with my projections if you purchase the premium content.
Myself and h3budda also broke down the card in full on Grinders Live, which can be found here.
Onto the fights!
Cash Game Plays
1. Colby Covington, $8,500
Colby Covington is one of the better prospects in the 170 lb. division, and he’ll be facing his toughest test in veteran Dong Hyun Kim. But regardless of how you feel about this matchup, who you favor, I think Covington makes for a strong cash game play.
If Covington is going to win this fight, he’s going to do so through the wrestling, that’s what he does. He’s an NCAA All-American wrestler and he’s landed 6-12 takedowns several times in fights before. We know that takedowns are the easiest way to create a high floor in your lineups, and there’s nobody more likely to land takedowns than Covington.
His odds have also moved pretty heavily in the last few days, all the way up to -325, which means he has built in value for his price of 8.5k. He may not be a lock in any sense, but I’m comfortable with rostering him in cash games.
2. Jon Tuck, $8,800
Honestly, there aren’t a ton of obvious options in cash games this week and I think we’ll be stuck targeting guys who have low floors and high upsides. Tuck is probably one of those guys at 8.8k, facing Takanori Gomi.
Tuck has lost a few fights in the UFC, but he’s durable at least, which you can’t say about Gomi, who’s lost three consecutive fights by first round TKO. Gomi is well past his prime and his chin is fading, and Tuck likely won’t have to do much to hurt him.
I can’t say Tuck is the best fighter in the world but he has great odds at -320 with an ITD prop of -145, so I think he makes sense in all formats for the price.
Tournament Plays
1. Walt Harris, $9,200
Again, there are tons of low floor, high upside fighters this week and Walt Harris is another one I expect to be popular. He’s fighting Cyril Asker, who has one win in the UFC but hasn’t really shown he’s a UFC-level fighter.
Harris has had ups and downs of his own, but he’s most likely the better boxer, wrestler and power puncher in this fight, and he’s arguably more durable. So there are a lot of reasons to think Harris can win this fight inside the distance.
He comes in as a -345 favorite with an ITD prop of -180, which is extremely high. I think there’s a strong chance Harris wins in the first round, with a prop of -105, so he makes sense to target in tournaments.
2. Marcin Tybura, $8,700
The other heavyweight fight is equally tasty, with Marcin Tybura taking on Andrei Arlovski. Similarly to Takanori Gomi, Arlovski’s chin has failed him late in his career, and he seemingly can’t take a shot. It doesn’t help that he’s in the HW division, because even the poor fighters have power.
Arlovski has lost four consecutive fights by finish, including three knockouts, and he’s been TKO’d 10 times in his career. Those aren’t good metrics, and I think Tybura can hurt Arlovski along the way.
Tybura is only a -240 favorite against the vastly experienced Arlovski, but he holds an ITD line of -130, and he’s a strong tournament target for 8.7k.
Fade of the Week
1. Holly Holm, $9,600
Really, this comes down to the price on Holm. I don’t see Correia being super effective, there’s only a couple ways she can contend in this fight. But Holm is often in slow paced, low scoring fights and I’m not willing to take the chance on her in tournaments.
Even if she were to finish, and she very well might with an ITD prop of -121, she’s going to need to outscore everyone from the top tier. I highly doubt Holm will look to grapple much, so her points may only come from a potential knockdown and strikes. There’s also the chance that few underdogs win on this card, and the winning lineup simply can’t afford to pay up for Holm.
So I do think Holm wins this fight, and she might win inside the distance, but I see little reason to target her on DraftKings.