UFC Fight Night: Holm vs. Shevchenko Beat Down
Welcome back to another edition of the UFC Beat Down, hope you all had some fun during UFC 200 fight week as I sure did! Don’t let the post UFC 200 blues get you down though, we have another excellent card this weekend and another card next Saturday to cap off July.
The toughest part about this card is navigating through the wrestling based fights to find the ones with a good chance to finish. Oh, and there’s also a HW fighter priced at 11.5k, so good luck with that!
We’ll be hopefully releasing an episode of The Daily Fantasy MMA Podcast on Twitter at BrettAppley and at DailyFanMMA, so be sure to check there for up to date content. In the meantime, I’ve done my best to break down the fights for this weekend, so let’s win all money ok?
Onto the fights!
MAIN CARD
Holly Holm vs. Valentina Shevchenko
Fight Odds: Holm -220, Shevchekno +180
Odds to finish: +130
Salaries: Holm 11k, Shevchenko 8.6k
Weight Class: 135
On an average fight card, I think stacking the main event in cash games and going nearly all-in on the main event in tournaments is a solid strategy, but Holly Holm vs. Valentina Shevchenko gives me pause.
I expect this fight to play out on the feet for its majority, and I would not be surprised at all to see it play out with a slow, technical pace. What I like best about Shevchenko is her striking defense, she’s very patient and hard to hit. She’s technical enough to compete with anyone on the feet. What concerns me with Shevchenko in general is her size, as she’s small for the 135 lb. division and should probably be fighting at 125 lbs, and her opponent in Holm is a huge 135er.
Holm is a technical striker herself but I think her advantages lie in her kicking game and distance striking. Shevchenko will look to do most of her damage off the counters and in the clinch, and I think Holm will take the lead and look to keep the fight at distance.
If this was a three-round fight I wouldn’t really be considering it from a fantasy perspective. Neither fighter strikes at a high rate and there’s little to no upside for a finish. In a five round fight, I think those striking numbers could expand to a targetable range, but the price on Holm is a heavy one, not to mention her odds have fallen significantly since opening at -350.
For the price on Holm and her upside, I think she’s a fade for me in tournaments, and while I can’t see the upside for Shevchenko, a decision win would most likely be good enough in tournaments, so I suppose she’s worth a look. I still think the stack or one side of this fight is in play in cash games, but I don’t think it warrants the same exposure as a typical main event.
Fight Prediction: Holm by Decision
Edson Barboza vs. Gilbert Melendez
Fight Odds: Barboza -225, Melendez +185
Odds to finish: +135
Salaries: Barboza 10.4k, Melendez 9k
Weight Class: 155
Edson Barboza has never looked better and Gilbert Melendez will be an interesting test for him. Melendez is coming back from suspension after testing positive for PEDs, but he’s only one fight removed from a split decision loss to the current champ Eddie Alvarez.
Barboza should have the clear striking advantage in this fight while Melendez will have the grappling advantage, and I’m going to lean with Barboza, but I don’t think there’s a ton of upside. Barboza doesn’t land with the highest output and it wouldn’t shock me at all if Melendez stalled his striking game a bit. Melendez has also never been knocked out, so I’m not going all in on Barboza hoping this is the first time.
Melendez inside distance prop is over +500, which isn’t great, but he does have a route to victory. I’m concerned with the amount of strikes he’d land in that victory though, so I will probably look away from this fight in general.
Fight Prediction: Barboza by Decision
Francis Ngannou vs. Bojan Mihajlovic
Fight Odds: Ngannou -700, Mihajlovic +500
Odds to finish: -400
Salaries: Ngannou 11.5k, Mihajlovic 7.9k
Weight Class: HW
It’s not often when we get a heavyweight fight with a favorite priced higher than -350 on the Vegas lines, but Francis Ngannou is -700 against Bojan Mihajlovic. I always have to mention that this is the HW division, so anything can and will happen, but I will admit this looks like good matchup for Ngannou.
Ngannou is an athletic freak and he should dominate Mihajlovic with his size and athleticism, and that alone will be a task to overcome for the newcomer Mihajlovic. The best and most likely route to victory for Mihajlovic is to try and push Ngannou against the cage and get him down, but Ngannou has faced stronger wrestlers and grapplers in his previous fights, and he works hard to get back to his feet. I don’t think Mihajlovic can keep him down and I don’t think there’s a great chance he can finish.
If the fight stays standing I have to think Ngannou has a great chance to knockout Mihajlovic, and if you’ve seen Ngannou’s fight with Luis Henrique, you know the power he has.
Of course, if you want to lock in Ngannou for his upside, you’ll need to pay the premium of 11.5k, which is nuts for any fighter let alone a heavyweight with eight career fights. Based on the odds though, and his -265 prop to win inside the distance, Ngannou is an elite play on the card and by far the most likely fighter to get a quick finish. I have zero problem with starting cash games or tournament lineups with Ngannou, but if you want to risk the fade, I think that’s OK too.
Fight Prediction: Ngannou by TKO, RD 1
Felice Herrig vs. Kailin Curran
Fight Odds: Curran -115, Herrig +105
Odds to finish: +145
Salaries: Curran 9.8k, Herrig 9.6k
Weight Class: 115
The fight between Felice Herrig and Kailin Curran is the closest on the card according to Vegas, and it’s very difficult to have a strong lean. Kailin Curran has only fought six times in her career, and her game is nowhere near perfect.
Curran was dominating Alex Chambers until she got submitted late in the fight, something that could have and should have been avoided. Herrig has only lost to Paige VanZant, Tecia Torres and Carla Esparza since 2011, and she’s much more experienced than Curran which should play to her advantage.
Honestly, I think this fight could be crazy action packed and it could take place all over the Octagon, and I’m not too sure who will come out ahead. I will say that I’m surprised Curran is the favorite and I think Herrig makes for the stronger play on DraftKings. I think her experience, combined with Curran’s inexperience could create some openings for Herrig, and I don’t know if Curran’s offense is strong.
Vegas doesn’t think there’s a ton of upside here but I think it’s a sneaky fight to target in GPPs.
Fight Prediction: Herrig by RNC, RD 2
UNDERCARD
Frankie Saenz vs. Eddie Wineland
Fight Odds: Saenz -160, Wineland +140
Odds to finish: +155
Salaries: Saenz 10k, Wineland 9.4k
Weight Class: 135
I think this will be one of the higher paced fights on the card, but that doesn’t necessarily mean there’s a ton of fantasy value. I think it’s a moderately interesting fight to target.
Frankie Saenz is a D1 wrestler who’s aggressive and has cardio for days, and he’ll probably threaten Wineland with takedowns. Wineland has some of the best takedown D in this 135 division, in part because he keeps his hands way too low, but he’s a sprawl-and-brawl fighter.
I do think Wineland is at the tail end of his career, he’s had his jaw broken and has been knocked out multiple times, and I’m not sure he can keep up with Saenz. It is a close fight though, and although there’s limited finishing value, I think both are in consideration for their price
If Wineland wins, it’s because he strikes his way to victory and defends the takedowns. Saenz can win with his wrestling or he could out-pace Wineland on the feet, so I have to lean his way.
Fight Prediction: Saenz by Decision
Darren Elkins vs. Godofredo Pepey
Fight Odds: Elkins -185, Pepey +160
Odds to finish: +105
Salaries: Elkins 10.3k, Pepey 9.1k
Weight Class: 145
Darren Elkins is generally a fighter you never want to target and you never want to target his opponent. He broke through that mold a bit in his last fight with a win over Chas Skelly where he landed 104 significant strikes. Elkins is one of the biggest grinders in the UFC and he is tough to shake free from, and it would not surprise me at all if Elkins completely dominated this fight from start to finish with that recipe.
What’s great about Godofredo Pepey is that he’s a finish or be finished type of fighter, and he’s won his last three fights with a flying triangle, triangle/armbar and flying knee. I think there’s a real chance Pepey jumps on something quickly and wins this fight, so I think he’s worth targeting in tournaments.
I also think because of that risky nature of Pepey, he can leave openings for Elkins to jump on a submission or land some good strikes, so for the relatively cheap price tag of 10.3k, I don’t think Elkins is an unreasonable target. Especially on a card where finishes aren’t easy to come by, this fight gives some hope that it could end before the final bell.
Fight Prediction: Elkins by Decision
Kamaru Usman vs. Alexander Yakovlev
Fight Odds: Usman -240, Yakovlev +200
Odds to finish: +160
Salaries: Usman 10.8k, Yakovlev 8.6k
Weight Class: 170
Kamaru Usman is currently the second heaviest favorite on the card at -240, and he’s one of the top prospects in the 170 lb. division. He’s an absolutely elite wrestler and his striking is good enough to keep him alive in most cases.
Alexander Yakovlev burned be badly with his first round TKO win over George Sullivan, and he’s looked generally solid in the UFC, but I’m not seeing a ton of upside on this fight. Yakovlev’s biggest strength is his grappling and I just don’t think he’ll have the advantage in this fight. At best, he can somewhat neutralize Usman.
On the feet, it’s possible Yakovlev outstrikes Usman but I don’t think either fighter gets the finish standing, and I expect the grappling exchanges to control the pace of this fight.
There are several wrestling-predominant fights on this card, and it’s hard to gauge which ones will play out to a slow decision on paper, but I won’t be high on this fight and I think a general fade is a good strategy.
Fight Prediction: Usman by Decision
Michel Prazeres vs. J.C. Cottrell
Fight Odds: Prazeres -235, Cottrell +195
Odds to finish: +165
Salaries: Prazeres 10.9k, Cottrell 8.5k
Weight Class: 155
If I had to pick one, Michel Prazeres is my contrarian, sneaky tournament play of week. For one, I expect his ownership to be extremely low as he’s priced right below Holm and Ngannou, and he’s generally not a finisher.
J.C. Cottrell is making his UFC debut, and he looked good on the tape I watched, but Prazeres is a horrible matchup for just about anyone. Prazeres is in the class of Brazilian grinders and he’s built like a rock. Prazeres has already fought and beaten much tougher competition in Maribek Taisumov, and I don’t think Cottrell has the wrestling chops to keep Prazeres from taking him down.
With a +165 line on this fight to end in a finish, and the high price tag of Prazeres, it’s hard to put too much exposure into this fight. Cottrell is +800 to win inside the distance which pretty much eliminates him in my book. I do think Prazeres has a chance of grinding Cottrell down early and locking in a submission or finishing with ground and pound, and I just doubt that Cottrell has faced anyone with his skill set, size and athletic ability.
Vegas has Prazeres tagged at +240 to win inside the distance which is respectable. I’ll probably throw a dart or two at him in tournaments but I’ll be fading this fight otherwise.
Fight Prediction: Prazeres by Decision
Alex Oliveira vs. James Moontasri
Fight Odds: Oliveira -225, Moontasri +185
Odds to finish: -165
Salaries: Oliveira 10.7k, Moontasri 8.7k
Weight Class: 170
This is one of the few fights I think has solid upside and I expect to target both sides in tournaments. I actually think Alex Oliveira will be one of the more popular fighters on the card, but I don’t think he’s a lock to win.
Oliveira is a brawler and that opens up holes on both sides, but his fight IQ isn’t the highest and he’s shown huge weaknesses in his overall game. James Moontasri has shown an equal amount of weaknesses, but he’s a decent striker and can hit hard. He enjoys the spinning techniques as much as he throws a jab, which is painful to watch if you’re rooting for him to win, but that does provide upside on both sides.
Overall, I think both fighters will present each other with opportunities to land strikes and I think it’s worth investing in. For the low ownership I expect on Moontasri, I think he’s a great tournament play, but I don’t mind either side in cash games or gpps.
Fight Prediction: Oliveira by TKO, RD 3
Hector Urbina vs. George Sullivan
Fight Odds: Sullivan -200, Urbina +170
Odds to finish: -105
Salaries: Sullivan 10.5k, Urbina 8.9k
Weight Class: 170
I was pretty heavy on George Sullivan in his last fight against Alexander Yakovlev, but Sullivan got outgrappled and knocked out in the first round. Not fun.
Fortunately, he gets a much easier matchup in Hector Urbina and I will be forced to target him again. Sullivan is the classic aggressive, walk-forward striker with good power and decent grappling. I am nervous about the fact that he was knocked out and there’s a chance his chin might fail him, but I definitely think he’s the better striker and he’s shown toughness throughout his career.
Hector Urbina won his first UFC fight with a quick guillotine but was grounded out in his second fight and lost by decision. I think he has some upside here, especially if the chin of Sullivan can’t hold up. He does have a legit guillotine choke and that’s probably his best bet to finish quickly.
He also has plenty of downside, as he’s just not that talented of a fighter and Sullivan is a pretty tough matchup. I think it’s likely that he gets beat up on the feet and TKOd at some point, and I don’t think he has the wrestling to get the fight down.
This is a good fight to target in my opinion, but I am much higher on Sullivan than Urbina.
Fight Prediction: Sullivan by TKO, RD 2
Jim Alers vs. Jason Knight
Fight Odds: Alers -200, Knight +170
Odds to finish: +160
Salaries: Alers 10.6k, Knight 8.8k.
Weight Class: 145
This is a tricky fight between Jim Alers and Jason Knight. From an odds perspective, there’s not a ton of upside as Alers and Knight have respective finishing props of +379 and +386.
It’s not that I don’t think Alers could finish, but he’s priced between Oliveira and Sullivan and I think both make for much stronger plays, so my exposure on Alers will be limited-none. Knight has only had one fight in the UFC and he was held down for 15 minutes by Kawajiri, which is typical.
Both fighters have submission grappling strengths and have a combined 18 wins by submission. Alers is much more of a top control, take your back, choke you out type of fighter while Knight is comfortable off his back and can throw up subs from guard. He had some sneaky rubber guard that almost worked on Kawajiri and I think he can finish Alers if he’s not careful.
My gut says play the guys around Alers for the higher upside and have a dose of Knight for his submission ability and price. Don’t touch this fight in cash.
Fight Prediction: Knight by Triangle, RD 1
Luis Henrique vs. Dmitry Smolyakov
Fight Odds: Smolyakov -160, Henrique +140
Odds to finish: -365
Salaries: Smolyakov 10.1k, Henrique 9.3k
Weight Class: HW
Dmitry Smolyakov is making his UFC debut and I expect him to be popular, I can’t strongly disagree as he is the only fighter besides Ngannou to have good odds to finish at -131. Yes, Henrique was brutally knocked out by Ngannou in his last fight but he also took Ngannou down and grappled well for a bit.
Henrique is a very strong wrestler and I think if he gets the fight down, he could have success. Smolyakov seems to have decent wrestling ability and I think the most likely outcome is that he keeps it on the feet and knocks out Henrique quickly. But this is a close fight, don’t forget that and it’s in the HW division. If Smolyakov is going to be 30% owned and Henrique is 10%, I definitely want some Henrique.
I wouldn’t normally suggest this, but I think Smolyakov is viable in cash games only for the fact that he has 120 point upside and there’s really only one other fighter who can compare. He’s a risk, but I think Smolyakov is definitely worth the price, just don’t completely forget about Henrique.
Fight Prediction: Smolyakov by TKO, RD 1