UFC Fight Night: Iaquinta vs. Cerrone Quick Picks
Welcome back to another edition of the UFC Quick Picks!
We head up to Ottawa, Canada, this weekend for what should be a fun night of fights, headlined by Al Iaquinta vs. Donald “Cowboy” Cerrone.
If you want FULL BREAKDOWNS of every single fight on the card, projections, rankings and more, you can find that in the Premium Section here. We’ve also launched the MMA LINEUP BUILDER which you can access with my projections if you purchase the premium content.
Onto the fights!
Cash Game Plays
1. Macy Chiasson, 9.4k
On a slate where there are only three favorites north of the -175 mark, targeting Macy Chiasson at -800 makes quite a lot of sense for cash games.
Yes she is expensive at 9.4k, but given the other favorites on the slate you could argue she still carries price value. Chiasson will be taking on Sarah Moras, an average submission grappler with limited wrestling and grappling skills, and Chiasson should have enough tools to pass this test.
Chiasson won the TUF Featherweight season and will have many physical advantages as well, dropping to Bantamweight against Moras. She carries a -205 ITD line which is the best on the slate by a large margin. Based on those metrics, and her pace of fight, Chiasson is definitely the safest and one of the highest upside fighters on the slate, and should definitely be considered in cash games.
2. Vince Morales, 7.2k
If you’re looking for a fighter to save salary on, I think Vince Morales is an adequate choice at 7.2k.
Morales is only +130 to win against Aeimann Zahabi, so he has excellent price value and that’s one of the more important aspects to look for in cash games. He’s also relatively likely to fight for a full 15 minutes, with a -275 line for this bout to hit Over 2.5 rounds.
Morales doesn’t have a ton of upside but he’s very cheap and should be able to compete at range with Zahabi, and potentially beat him on volume. I’d be happy if Morales came through with a victory, but frankly, if he puts up 30 points in a loss that would pay off the cash game price tag as well.
Definitely not a must-target here, but Morales is one of the better salary-savers on the card.
Tournament Plays
1. Walt Harris, 8.9k
I don’t enjoy rostering Walt Harris, or any Heavyweight for that matter, but I cannot deny many of them carry upside.
All 11 of Harris’ professional wins have come by knockout, and he’s currently +100 ITD in his matchup this weekend with Serghei Spivac, who is making his UFC debut.
Spivak is 9-0 but he’s fought terrible competition on the regional scene, and I’m suspect of his skill level. He’s certainly live in the sense that there’s a ton of variance in the HW division, but I’m not sure he’s even been hit yet.
Harris packs a lot of power and is capable of winning by knockout, and that’s all I care about. At 8.9k, with the second best ITD line on the slate, I do think Harris has tournament winning upside and I am willing to target him on a handful of lineups hoping he earns victory No. 12 this weekend.
2. Merab Dvalishvili, 8.6k
He’ll be the chalk of the slate, but it’s hard to overlook Merab Dvalishvili in any format at 8.6k.
Dvalishvili has averaged 7.33 takedowns per 15 minutes in his three UFC bouts, and has attempted a whopping 53 takedowns. That’s the best way to score on DraftKings, and even in his two losses he’s never scored less than 70 points.
Dvalishvili is likely to attempt takedowns at a high rate this weekend against Brad Katona, and he’s also likely to continue to struggle holding his opponent down. Which just means more takedown attempts for him.
As long as Dvalishvili gets a win, and he’s currently -170, I expect him to post a score competitive with the optimal lineup. He’s a very strong play in all formats this weekend.
Fade of the Week
1. Nordine Taleb, 9.3k
I don’t mind Taleb as a play in a vacuum, but at 9.3k he’s simply too expensive for me to invest in for tournaments. He’s only priced $100 less than Chiasson, and he’s priced many other solid options in the upper 8k range.
For Taleb to even be competitive with the optimal lineup, he needs a quick finish, and his current ITD line is +265. He’s facing a smaller opponent in Kyle Prepolec who may fall short on short notice, but even if Taleb puts up a big score, he’s too expensive to kill you.
More than anything, I struggle to pay that price on Taleb this weekend, and that’s why he’s my fade of the week in tournaments.