UFC Fight Night: Jacare vs. Brunson 2 Quick Picks
Welcome back to the UFC Quick Picks! Coming off a great UFC 220, we have a rematch six years in the making with Jacare Souza and Derek Brunson.
The prizes aren’t fantastic, but we have six more consecutive weeks of fights before our next break, and this is only the beginning!
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Cash Game Plays
1. Gregor Gillespie, $9,500
There are two clear, elite cash game options this week, Gregor Gillespie and Mirsad Bektic. Both fighters are hovering near the -600 mark, and both make for excellent plays, but my preferred play is Gillespie at 9.5k.
Besides the odds, Gillespie is just a very safe fighter, with a high upside as well. He’s a former NCAA D1 National Champion wrestler and he fights like one, landing nearly six takedowns per 15 minutes of action through his three UFC fights. He also has the cardio to continually push the pace for it’s entirety, which many of his opponents cannot.
We need to target wrestlers on DraftKings because they score so much more on average than strikers and don’t need a finish to reach their upside. Not only is Gillespie safe in terms of being a massive favorite, but he has the ability to land many takedowns throughout the fight, and that gives him an incredibly high floor. He’s my top cash game target this weekend.
2. Cory Sandhagen, $8,300
Another cash game option I like is one of value in Cory Sandhagen. This fight was booked very recently and DraftKings had already made the salaries before its odds were released.
Sandhagen is priced at 8.3k, and based on the other fighters on this card, he should be around -130. But he’s -220 currently, making him a value of approximately 8.9k. That means he has the most value on the card by far, and I love to target these values in cash games.
I do think he’s more well-rounded than his opponent Austin Arnett and can hopefully land a few takedowns en route to a decision win. There’s a level of volatility in this sport and nothing is a lock when fighters are making their promotional debuts, but I think Sandhagen’s value is too much to pass on.
Tournament Plays
1. Mirsad Bektic, $9,400
As I mentioned earlier, the other elite option on this card besides Gillespie is Mirsad Bektic, who comes in at 9.4k. Bektic has more finishing potential than Gillespie and should be strongly considered as an anchor in tournament lineups.
Bektic is facing Godofredo Pepey who is an all-or-nothing, first round finish type of fighter. If Bektic can get past the first few minutes he should coast to a win, potentially earning the finish as well with a strong ITD line of -135. Bektic has the ability to power strike with Pepey, he can land knockdowns, and he can also wrestle and land shots on the ground.
Essentially, Bektic has a relatively high floor and has multiple paths to reaching the 110 points mark, but he also has a strong chance to win inside the distance which makes him a very strong play in tournaments.
2. Frank Camacho, $7,300
One cheap fighter I like in tournaments is Frank Camacho, who is one of the lowest priced fighters on the card at 7.3k. Camacho is a brawler, he landed 154 significant strikes in his last fight and loves to get in a high-paced scrap.
Camacho is fighter Drew Dober who is a solid striker and improving wrestler, and Camacho will likely need to keep the fight standing first and foremost. If he can do so, he can look to press the action and land more power shots, and he’s confident he can take more damage than his opponent.
Generally, Camacho fights end up with a high score, which is half the battle. I obviously like tournament plays that both win and score highly. I’m not so worried about this fight NOT scoring highly, both Dober and Camacho have big potential. But for 7.3k, I am very confident that if Camacho wins he will pay off his tag, and that puts him squarely in play for me.
His chances to finish aren’t super high at +313, but he will land enough significant in the process to pay off at 7.3k with a win, and I will definitely get exposure to him on Saturday.
Fade of the Week
Justine Kish, $9,200
As you know I like to throw out a high priced fighter in this section, even if it’s a risk. I like Justine Kish overall, she’s a high-paced fighter with potential, but I just think she’s too expensive this week.
The problem isn’t necessarily with her, it’s that both Gillespie and Bektic are priced right above her, and Price and Dober are priced right below her. In tournaments, I would prefer all four of those fighters over Kish. We have to take stands somewhere, we can’t target every single fighter on the slate, and so I’m narrowing down my player pool by eliminating Kish.
I wouldn’t be shocked if she scored well, but I would be pretty surprised if she outscored each of the other four fighters I named, and that’s the key.
Weak Chin of the Week
Dennis Bermudez
I haven’t written up this section in a while but here’s a name to throw out for weak chin, Dennis Bermudez. He has incredible recovery but he gets hurt a lot and it’s cost him multiple fights in his UFC career.
Bermudez is taking on Andre Fili this week who is more than capable of landing a heavy shot in 15 minutes. I don’t trust Fili specifically, but he’s in play for me in tournaments based on the shaky chin of Bermudez.