UFC Fight Night: Johnson vs. Bader Beat Down
Welcome back to another edition of the UFC Beat Down!
It’s been hard for me to adjust to this new two-weeks-between-fights schedule, but thankfully we get five cards in the next seven weeks, which will be nice, assuming every single main event fighter doesn’t get injured.
This is an interesting card from a DFS perspective and I think we’ll see a large range of lineups because there are little to no locks, and little upside.
Be on the lookout for an edition of the Daily Fantasy Takedown and a new episode of The Daily Fantasy MMA Podcast! Follow me on Twitter at BrettAppley and at DailyFanMMA.
Onto the fights!
MAIN CARD
Anthony Johnson vs. Ryan Bader
Fight Odds: Johnson -300, Bader +250
Odds to finish: -485
Salaries: Johnson 10.9k, Bader 8.5k
Weight Class: 205
I’m struggling on how to attack this fight from a DFS perspective in both formats but its directions are pretty obvious. In the red corner we have Anthony Johnson, who’s one of the most powerful strikers on the planet and an athletic specimen. And in the blue corner we have Ryan Bader.
I didn’t feel like breaking Bader down in that last sentence because he’s relatively boring and that sums up his fighting style well enough. He’s not a finisher. He’s a limited but efficient striker. He’s a strong wrestler but he’s not athletic enough to compete with the elite in this division.
And I consider Anthony Johnson one of the elite, minus one or two potential problems. His biggest challenge in this fight is his cardio/will. If he can’t secure the early knockout, how will he react? Will he gas out? Will quit?
Those are legitimate questions that we won’t know until the fight plays out but here’s how I’m looking at it. Johnson is a great fantasy play – he not only has one of the highest upsides on the card, which is a first round knockout, but he’s a near lock to last 3-5 rounds and holds a high floor because of that. I think he’s worth the price.
If Bader wins, it’s not going to be early, and it’s almost for sure that it’s a late submission or decision victory. Even if he gets past the first rounds without getting knocked out, he still may lose. For his price and five round upside, I think he’s worth a play in all formats, but I will have limited exposure to him.
Fight Prediction: Johnson by TKO, RD 1
Josh Barnett vs. Ben Rothwell
Fight Odds: Barnett -140, Rothwell +120
Odds to finish: -195
Salaries: Barnett 10.1k, Rothwell 9.3k
Weight Class: HW
Ah, Heavyweight MMA, how many different ways can I rant about it?
From an analytical standpoint, Josh Barnett is the more well-rounded fighter in this bout, and he’s the far superior grappler. If he gets the fight to the ground early, he’ll have a great chance to earn a quick finish, most likely by submission.
Ben Rothwell’s best chance to win is on the feet where he’s more or less the equal of Barnett. His main striking advantage is that he’s the more durable of the two – Barnett doesn’t have a great chin and even though he’s not at a huge disadvantage, he’s the more likely of the two to randomly fall unconscious after a punch.
From a non-analytical standpoint, this is HW MMA and there’s really no analyzing it. Rothwell has the confidence that’s for sure and he’s proven doubters wrong during his three-fight win streak.
I’m not touching this fight in cash games but of course both sides warrant GPP exposure. I personally favor Barnett and I think he’s the better fighter.
Fight Prediction: Barnett by Arm-Triangle, RD 1
Iuri Alcantara vs. Jimmie Rivera
Fight Odds: Rivera -170, Alcantara +150
Odds to finish: +125
Salaries: Rivera 10.2k, Alcantara 9.2k
Weight Class: 135
In what should be a fun matchup, Jimmie Rivera looks to build on his impressive debut with a win against Iuri Alcantara. Rivera has two consecutive wins in the UFC, a knockout over Marcus Brimage and a decision over Pedro Munhoz. I think Rivera is a legit top-15/top-10 Bantamweight and Alcantara is a good test for him.
Alcantara has 32 career wins and brings a little bit of everything to the table. In this match, I think Alcantara will need to use his grappling to win the fight. He’s a capable striker but I think Rivera is a touch better and I’d side with him in a striking battle.
From a DFS perspective, I’m honestly more excited to just watch the fight. Vegas expects this fight to end in a decision, and it’s a close enough bout to avoid from a cash game perspective. I can see the winner scoring 60-70 points in a decision but there’s much higher upside targets nearby, and I’d advise sticking with those.
Fight Prediction: Rivera by Decision
Sage Northcutt vs. Bryan Barberena
Fight Odds: Northcutt -320, Holbrook +260
Odds to finish: -195
Salaries: Northcutt 11k, Barberena 8.4k
Weight Class: 170
“Super” Sage Northcutt and his hype train hit the Octagon once again, and this time he gets a short notice opponent in Bryan Barberena and an entirely new weight class.
Originally, Northcutt was slated to fight Andrew Holbrook at 155, but after Holbrook got injured, Barberena took the fight at 170 lbs. There’s quite a lot of information to digest.
Northcutt is a strong offensive fighter but he’s relatively weak defensively and Holbrook could have taken advantage of that. Barberena is a very tough and aggressive fighter, but he’s not going to test Northcutt’s wrestling. In fact, I think Northcutt will have the wrestling advantage in this fight and I think it’s his easiest course to victory.
Barberena is capable of landing a lot of strikes when he’s at his best, but I think he’ll have trouble getting inside the reach of Northcutt and I also expect him to be on his back for a while in this fight. Again, he’s super tough and super tough to finish, and I don’t see Northcutt walking through him on the feet or on the mat.
When Northcutt isn’t pressured, he’s able to let go of his striking and that’s when he can land the damaging shots. I think Barberena will try to dictate the pace and force Northcutt to use his wrestling, and for that reason, I still don’t think Northcutt will pay off the price.
Fight Prediction: Northcutt by Decision
UNDERCARD
Tarec Saffiedine vs. Jake Ellenberger
Fight Odds: Saffiedine -255, Ellenberger +215
Odds to finish: +160
Salaries: Saffiedine 10.6k, Ellenberger 8.8k
Weight Class: 170
Even though Tarec Saffiedine has been injured since late 2014, I expect him to make a good showing in his return against Jake Ellenberger.
Saffiedine is a high-output striker, which is my favorite kind of DFS fighter to target. Ellenberger is a powerful striker but his career has fallen off a cliff, and unless he can knock Saffiedine clean out, he won’t be able to keep up on the feet. With that said, I don’t expect Ellenberger to force the fight to the mat either, which means the fight could play out on the feet for a large majority.
In 15 career victories, Saffiedine only holds one career TKO and five submission victories, so it’s safe to say the most likely outcome is a decision win. However, Ellenberger’s chin has failed quite a few tests and it wouldn’t shock me to fail another one in this bout.
I prefer Saffiedine for cash games, but I think he holds merit in tournaments as well, and I won’t be on Ellenberger.
Fight Prediction: Saffiedine by Decision
Olivier Aubin-Mercier vs. Diego Ferreira
Fight Odds: Aubin-Mercier -300, Ferreira +250
Odds to finish: Aubin-Mercier 10.4k, Ferreira 9k
Salaries: Aubin-Mercier 10.4k, Ferreira 9k
Weight Class: 155
I would love to watch this fight between Olivier Aubin-Mercier (OAM) and Diego Ferreira take place in a grappling tournament, but I’m not high on it from a fantasy perspective.
Both fighters are extremely talented submission grapplers, and both are high-level athletes, but I expect them to neutralize each other’s ability to score highly, and for that reason I’m likely to fade the matchup entirely.
OAM is still a young kid at age 26, training out of TriStar, and he’s fared quite well in the Octagon, winning three in a row since he lost the TUF Finale to Chad Laprise. Ferreira started his UFC career off hot with two finishes, but he’s lost two consecutive fights and he’ll need a strong performance to stay relevant in the 155 lb. division.
While neither fighter possesses strong striking, I don’t think that will factor much into this matchup. Maybe it was because he was fighting a strong boxer in his last fight, but OAM only landed THREE significant strikes against Tony Sims in a 15-minute decision. It was probably the correct strategy to avoid striking at all costs, but that doesn’t make me want to target him in Daily Fantasy.
Even if Ferreira strikes a bit more in volume than OAM, I expect OAM to initiate the grappling and look to get Ferreira to the mat where he’s most comfortable. Ferreira is an elite submission artist, but he’s not the best wrestler and I think OAM is more likely to control top position. I don’t expect a submission from either fighter, and it’s likely that this fight lasts into the latter rounds if not the full 15 minutes.
Enjoy the grappling scrambles and submission attempts but don’t put much action into this fight on DraftKings.
Fight Prediction: Aubin-Mercier by Decision
Rafael Natal vs. Kevin Casey
Fight Odds: Natal -170, Casey +150
Odds to finish: -105
Salaries: Natal 9.9k, Casey 9.5k
Weight Class: 185
Kevin Casey’s last fight against Antonio Carlos Junior ended quickly due to an inadvertent eye poke, but this fight may not be much more exciting. That’s harsh I know, but it was funny..right?
Casey and his opponent Rafael Natal aren’t the most exciting fighters, and they’re too inconsistent to lay heavy exposure on in DFS. Casey has a powerful fist that’s technically enough to give hlm a look in tournaments, as it’s plausible he lands it on Natal and earns a random KO. But if the fight stays standing, I favor the more technical striker in Natal.
On the ground, both fighters are technical but I expect it to be a wash. There are too many other fighters on this card that I like more for DFS.
Fight Prediction: Natal by Decision
Dustin Ortiz vs. Wilson Reis
Fight Odds: Ortiz -220, Reis +180
Odds to finish: +180
Salaries: Ortiz 10.3k, Reis 9.1k
Weight Class: 125
I like Dustin Ortiz, I think he’s an upper-echelon Flyweight but the upside in this fight is limited. Ortiz is a fast-paced striker with a very solid ground game, but he’s not going to want to expose that against Wilson Reis, who’s one of the best ground specialists in the division.
Reis is mostly a submission grappler and that’s where his upside lies. His goal is to get the fight on the ground, take the back and sink in a choke, and he’s been very successful in his career. In 27 pro fights, he’s never won by TKO, but he has nine submission victories and 10 wins by decision. He’s also never been submitted, and he’s only been TKO’d twice.
Ortiz has never been finished in his 19-4 professional career, and although he holds six wins by TKO, I don’t really see him finishing Reis in this bout. For a fight that’s highly likely to go to decision, I’m not much of a fan of Reis, as he’s really only worth playing if you expect him to get a submission. I guess he’s worth a flyer in GPPs but I’ll probably look elsewhere.
Because of the upside factor, I don’t think Ortiz has a ton of tournament value, but he’s likely to get a win and score between 60-70, which makes him playable in cash games. As long as Ortiz keeps the fight standing I expect him to outland Reis and avoid the grappler’s occasional power shots. I don’t think Reis can hold Ortiz down long enough to win out rounds, but the potential is there.
I’m taking Ortiz to outpace Reis and win a decision, but the fantasy outlook is dim.
Fight Prediction: Ortiz by Decision
George Sullivan vs. Alexander Yakovlev
Fight Odds: Yakovlev -130, Sullivan +110
Odds to finish: +160
Salaries: Yakovlev 9.8k, Sullivan 9.6k
Weight Class: 170
After one fight at 155, a win against Gray Maynard, Alexander Yakovlev is moving back to the 170 lb. division to take on gritty striker George Sullivan, who’s won three of his last four.
I’m a bit surprised Sullivan is the underdog here and I think he carries value this weekend, especially in cash games. I say that because he’s an aggressive, offensive fighter and he’s very durable. I expect him to have a much higher offensive output than Yakovlev on the feet, and that might be enough to get the victory.
Yakovlev isn’t bad, but he often gets stuck in counter-strike mode and that won’t be enough to out-land Sullivan if he fights at a slow pace. He’s a very solid wrestler as well, but he won’t have much (if any) of a strength advantage at the Welterweight Division, and Sullivan is great at getting back to his feet, even if his pure takedown defense isn’t the best.
I can see Yakovlev winning this fight if he’s able to be aggressive on the feet and land takedowns, but I don’t have enough confidence in that and I don’t think he possess enough upside to target in any format. Sullivan has the upside but I prefer him as a cash play.
Fight Prediction: Sullivan by Decision
Alex Caceres vs. Masio Fullen
Fight Odds: Caceres -300, Fullen +250
Odds to finish: -116
Salaries: Caceres 10.8k, Fullen 8.6k
Weight Class: 135
I’m not dying to roster either Alex Caceres or Masio Fullen, but I expect this to be one of the fastest paced fights on the night, and that’s enough to warrant a strong look on this card.
Caceres is young but he’s been around the block and he’s fought a high level of competition. He hasn’t always passed it with flying colors, but his upside is there. He’s a crafty striker that leads with his legs and possesses an excellent grappling game, but he’s also very inconsistent and that’s what has kept him for piling up win streaks.
Fullen isn’t terrible, he’s a similarly crafty striker that leads with his kicks, but he looked awful in his last fight against Makwan Amirkhani. Maybe awful isn’t the right word…he looked overmatched. Amirkhani immediately took him down, took his back and sunk in a choke.
That’s concerning to me.
If this fight stays on the feet, I actually think Fullen has a decent shot at winning. He might have the more powerful strikes and I don’t find it that unrealistic that he could pop Caceres a few times and control the fight on the feet. However, if his grappling isn’t up to snuff, I think Caceres will sniff it out and potentially stop him quickly.
Fortunately for Fullen, Caceres doesn’t have the best wrestling, but it only takes one grappling exchange to lose a fight, and for that question, I have to give Caceres the overall edge. From a DFS perspective I think Fullen is a solid play, especially for the price although I don’t expect him to get a finish.
Based on his inside distance odds of -116, I’ll have some exposure to Caceres in tournaments, but I think there are better cash plays in his range.
Fight Prediction: Caceres by RNC, RD 3
Matt Dwyer vs. Randy Brown
Fight Odds: Brown -170, Dwyer +150
Odds to finish: -270
Salaries: Brown 10.5k, Dwyer 8.9k
Weight Class: 170
Randy “Rude Boy” Brown is the newest UFC signee off the reality show “Looking for a Fight.” The other signee was Sage Northcutt.
I don’t say that as if it means much, however I don’t see the UFC purposely matching him up against someone they thought would walk through Brown. From what I know, Brown is a very good striker, and he’s a finisher. He lacks in overall experience (similar to Northcutt) but his upside is high.
Matt Dwyer is the perfect opponent for him because Dwyer has a name, he’ll let Brown strike with him and he’s defensively inefficient. I see this as being a close fight and I love it for tournaments, but I give Brown the edge because I believe he’ll be able to land shots on Dwyer and that might be enough to put him out.
With Dwyer’s experience and toughness, I can see him avoiding the power shots and out-striking Brown. Based on his Vegas odds, he’s actually a value at his price. This fight has some of the highest upside on the card, and I think it’s playable in all formats, even though I’d lean toward GPP.
Fight Prediction: Brown by TKO, RD 1
Damon Jackson vs. Levan Makashvili
Fight Odds: Makashvili -310, Jackson +255
Odds to finish: -110
Salaries: Makashvili 10.7k, Jackson 8.7k
Weight Class: 145
This fight plays out pretty simply for me, I don’t find either Damon Jackson or Levan Makashvili very interesting from a DFS perspective. Both fighters are grappling oriented and neither possess strong enough striking to produce a high scoring night.
Of the two, I think Makashvili will be the much stronger fighter and he should have an advantage in athleticism, and that may very will be the difference. Jackson is a good wrestler, but I just don’t think he’s athletic enough to take and keep Makashvili down, and I don’t think his striking will be enough to win rounds.
Makashvili seems like a safe option to get the win, but he’s 10.7k, and his lack of upside concerns me. Vegas has a higher prop on him than I would have thought, at +177 to win inside the distance, but he’s never won a fight by submission, and I think other fighters priced near him are more likely to earn the finish.
I wouldn’t talk you out of Makashvili as a cash play, if you’re looking for that safe win, but I don’t expect a high-scoring performance and I won’t have much exposure to either side of this fight Saturday.
Fight Prediction: Makashvili by Decision
Tony Martin vs. Felipe Olivieri
Fight Odds: Martin -185, Olivieri +160
Odds to finish: -190
Salaries: Martin 10k, Olivieri 9.4k
Weight Class: 155
It may be the first fight of the night, but Tony Martin and Felipe Olivieri both warrant tournament exposure in a bout that could end quickly.
The name of the game for Martin is grappling, and he’s going to look to get the fight to the ground and work a submission. He’s lost three of four fights in the UFC, but he holds seven submission wins in his career and Olivieri is an opponent whom Martin won’t want to stand with.
Olivieri is making his UFC debut out of Shooto Brazil, and he’s primarily a striker, and a finisher at that. He’s earned 10 of his 14 wins by TKO, and although they haven’t come against the highest of competition, he’s good enough to finish Martin if he can land the punches.
This fight makes for a great GPP target on both sides because Martin will either get the fight to the ground and most likely get a submission, or he won’t. And if the fight stays standing, Olivieri should be able to work his striking and probably earn a stoppage.
Fight Prediction: Martin by Kimura, RD 1