UFC Fight Night: Ladd vs. De Randamie Quick Picks
Welcome back to another edition of the UFC Quick Picks!
Coming off a fantastic UFC 239, the UFC heads to Sacramento for the return of the legend Urijah Faber, along with several other high-action bouts. There’s plenty of money to be won on DraftKings as usual, and I’ve done my best to help you get started with some plays below.
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Onto the fights!
Cash Game Plays
1. Ricky Simon, 9.3k
There are two heavy favorites on the slate this weekend, and although I am interested in both fighters in cash games, I believe Ricky Simon is the safer option at 9.3k.
Simon will be facing veteran Urijah Faber, who is returning from his retirement in 2016 and has been out of competition since that point. Simon is -380 to win and +270 to win ITD, and should have significant physical advantages int his matchup.
Faber is still skillful, but he’s 40 years old and it’s difficult to trust him coming back from the layoff. Simon is more than a decade younger, a strong athlete and a capable wrestler and grappler. He should also have the faster hands and has more potential to damage.
There aren’t many safe options on this slate but I’m willing to pay up for Simon in cash games at 9.3k.
2. Andre Fili, 7.8k
One of the better value plays on the slate, Andre Fili is only -105 on the betting line but comes in at 7.8k on DraftKings.
We always aim to target values in cash games, and if you need a place to save salary, I think Fili is a strong option. He’ll be taking on a superior muay-thai technician in Sheymon Moraes, but Moraes tends to land strikes at a low volume and has questionable cardio.
Fili will have a length advantage and lands strikes at a higher rate, and also has potential to land takedowns. There’s a very reasonable argument to make that Fili will stick on the outside and simply outpoint Moraes to a decision.
Regardless, Fili is fairly safe and is a good value compared to his DraftKings price, which makes him a decent cash game option this weekend.
Tournament Plays
1. Mike Rodriguez, 9.4k
The heaviest favorite on the slate, Mike Rodriguez comes in at -450 with a -180 line to win inside the distance. Those metrics are far and away the best on the entire slate, and that makes Rodriguez an elite tournament option at 9.4k.
He will be extremely popular, but we need to target upside in tournaments, and only one other fighter has an ITD line north of +100. So if I’m paying up this weekend, I will aim to pay all the way up to Rodriguez, who is taking on newcomer John Allan on short notice.
Allan has power in his hands and will look to close distance, but Rodriguez should be the superior range striker and will have a seven-inch reach advantage. I expect Rodriguez to have success with his style, with potential to win by knockout. Even for 9.4k, I think Rodriguez is worth paying up for in tournaments.
2. Ryan Hall, 8.3k
I still consider Ryan Hall a boom or bust option, meaning he is not necessarily a safe target if you’re looking for 80 points or more. But Hall also carries elite upside, considering he’s a world-class submission grappler and is capable of submitting essentially any opponent he comes across.
Hall is coming off a first-round submission over BJ Penn, and is one of the best in the world in specific leg-lock positions, which very few opponents will have the proper defenses for. He’ll be fighting Darren Elkins this weekend who is known for taking damage, but that doesn’t necessarily translate into high-level submission defense.
Hall has one of the better ITD lines on the slate at +165 and will be at an advantage on the mat, and I’m willing to take some chances on him in case he comes through with another finish and hits the optimal lineup.
Fade of the Week
1. Mirsad Bektic, 8.8k
Many still consider Mirsad Bektic a top prospect, and he’s undoubtedly an elite athlete with high-level skills, but I prefer him in walk-over matchups and I think he’s too expensive this weekend at 8.8k.
Bektic has gotten the majority of his work done on the mat, and I expect him to have difficultly controlling Josh Emmett in that area. He’s also shown questionable cardio and durability in past fights, and could be in danger while the fight stays standing.
Bektic is only +290 to win and we essentially need a finish from him. It’s too high of a line and a price for me to make a heavy investment in tournaments.