UFC Fight Night: Lawler vs. Dos Anjos Quick Picks
Welcome to the UFC Winnipeg Quick Picks! My original write-ups for this card had to be scratched once the Tim Elliot fight was canceled and he was removed from the slate. I thought he was the best play on the card.
That makes things trickier with 22 fighters instead of 24, which also means condensed ownership. Still, there is plenty of money to be won on DraftKings I’ve done my best to give you a few names who I want exposure to this weekend.
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Onto the fights!
Cash Game Plays
1. Julian Marquez, $9,100
We’ve seen much success from fighters coming off Dana White’s Tuesday Night Contender Series, and Julian Marquez is another fighter who I expect to have success, taking on Darren Stewart this weekend. I was hoping to conserve Marquez for GPPs this weekend, and I really liked Tim Elliot as a cash game play, but the Elliot fight was canceled which really limits our options.
Marquez is now the heaviest favorite on the card at -310 and has the best odds to finish at -132. I don’t love trusting fighters making their UFC debut, but I do like to trust the odds longterm, and the odds suggest Marquez is a very strong play against Stewart.
Stewart is coming off two ugly losses but the most recent one was against Karl Roberson in November. Stewart looked awful on the feet and I don’t expect a better version here, so he really needs to force the grappling on Marquez to win. It’s possible early, but I think Marquez is good enough defensively, and has the better striking and cardio to get the job done.
2. Alessio Di Chirico, $7,600
Going with the value theme for this second pick, Alessio Di Chirico is priced well below the mid-range at 7.6k and is actually a small favorite. He’s by far the most underpriced fighter on the card compared to his Vegas odds, and those are spots I like to target.
What makes this play difficult is that Di Chirico isn’t very good, and it really wouldn’t be a surprise if he lost. But his opponent is Oluwale Bamgbose who we know is also bad and simply isn’t a UFC-caliber fighter. Although the odds are close, that is why Di Chirico is a favorite here. Bamgbose has shown no ability to fight outside of round one and cannot grapple either.
Di Chirico should have an opportunity to finish the fight or win rounds based on his grappling alone, but I do think he’s the more technical fighter here. Regardless, I love his price and compared to the odds, he’s someone you should consider for cash games.
Tournament Plays
1. Abel Trujillo, $8,900
One of the fighters I expect to be most popular in tournaments after the Elliot cancelation is Abel Trujillo at 8.9k. People were already heavy on him but Elliot was priced at 9k, and I expect many lineups to jump down to Trujillo.
Trujillo is taking on John Makdessi who has shown durability issues as of late, and although Trujillo isn’t trustworthy in the slightest, he still hits very hard. I think it’s somewhat likely Trujillo can hurt and finish Makdessi early in the fight. His ITD line is fairly strong at +162, and although there is risk, the reward is a first round finish and that’s something I would like exposure to.
Because Trujillo will be very popular, I do think Makdessi warrants some exposure as well at his dirt cheap price tag, hoping he can pull off a split decision type victory in his home country at low ownership.
2. Jordan Mein, $8,400
I could go with a variety of options for the second pick, there are many strong tournament targets. I’m choosing someone in the mid-range in a fight that I do expect to end in a finish, as Jordan Mein takes on Erick Silva.
My lean here is slight, but it’s with Mein who I do think is the more technical striker compared to Silva. Clearly the fight will start on the feet and Mein has enough in the tank to do damage early. Silva has a terrible chin and will be exposed early to a potential knockout.
The reason it’s a difficult fight to rely on is because Mein likely doesn’t have more than 5-10 minutes of action before he gives up stops trying, which he has been known to do. If Silva can survive I wouldn’t be surprised to see him take over late and finish with a submission. But I’ll take the chance on Mein in hopes he can put Silva on the ropes early, and with an ITD line of +150, I think Mein is worth targeting in tournaments.
Fade of the Week
1. Ricardo Lamas, $9,300
He’s fine as a cash game play but Ricardo Lamas is someone who I’m not planning on targeting in tournaments, even though the Elliot news removes one of the better options in his pricing tier. Simply put, there are plenty of strong tournament targets on this card, and there are a handful I prefer in the top tier more than Lamas.
Lamas is fighting Josh Emmett, and while I expect him to win, it’s possible the fight could be competitive. It’s not likely that Lamas lands five or more takedowns, or scores 100 sig. strikes, and with an ITD line of +207 I’m not expecting a finish from Lamas. He’s the most expensive fighter on the card and not easy to pay up for.
But if I am looking to pay up into the top tier, I prefer Marquez and Trujillo more than Lamas. Even if Lamas does come through with a finish it’s possible guys priced below him finish as well, so there’s really not a ton of risk to fading Lamas.