UFC Fight Night: Lee vs. Iaquinta Quick Picks
Welcome back to another edition of the UFC Quick Picks!
This is the UFC’s last Fox card before they switch to the ESPN platform and it’s actually a very solid slate with solid prize pools. Of course we are all waiting on the Jones vs. Gustafsson rematch that takes place December 29, but this will do for now.
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Onto the fights!
Cash Game Plays
1. Kevin Lee, 9k
Not only is Kevin Lee the Main Event favorite but he’s climbed to a -350 favorite on the betting line, making him the second heaviest favorite on the slate. That means we also get a few hundred dollars of value on Lee, as he should be priced in the upper 9k range.
Lee also excels as a wrestler and submission grappler which is the best way to score on DK and he has an ITD line of -145 which is very strong. He’ll be taking on Al Iaquinta who beat him four years ago and there’s certainly some danger coming from Iaquinta, who has potential to hurt and even finish Lee with his boxing.
I’m not against playing Iaquinta in your cash lineups as well, but it’s almost impossible to ignore Lee at the 9k price tag in cash games and he’s one of the top overall targets on the slate. Even in a decision, I would expect Lee to put up a strong score and easily pay off his price.
2. Dan Ige, 8.5k
There’s a bit of value on Dan Ige as well at 8.5k, as a -175 favorite with an ITD line of +175.
Ige came storming out of the gate in his last fight and finished Mike Santiago with ground-and-pound in the first round, and that’s what we’re hoping for here too against Jordan Griffin. He doesn’t necessarily need the finish for cash games, but Ige comes in with a wrestling-heavy game plan and is more than willing to advance position to try and find the submission.
That scores well on DK and it gives him a high floor, and as long as he can survive the striking threat of Griffin I expect Ige to show well and score points. In cash games, he’s not too expensive or difficult to fit in, and he seems like one of the safer options on the board considering his price and fighting style.
Tournament Plays
1. Juan Adams, 9.5k
There’s a decent chance that Juan Adams is overhyped and that he’ll struggle sooner or later, but there’s no arguing the upside in this matchup with Chris De La Rocha.
Adams is coming off a Contender Series win and is a massive -450 favorite with an ITD line of -290. Yes he’s expensive, but his prop to win in round one is insanely high at -125 and Rocha is a very weak opponent.
If the fight goes well, Adams has real potential to finish quickly and top 100 points and that makes him a very strong tournament option for 9.5k. I would recommend considering him if you have the salary to spend up.
2. Charles Oliveira, 8.9k
Another obvious tournament option is Charles Oliveira at 8.9k, who is a -330 favorite with an ITD line of -179. We know the submission upside that Oliveira has and he’s a bit of a value here at 8.9k.
Oliveira is actually in a rematch against Jim Miller which he lost eight years ago, but it seems Oliveira is on the rise and Miller is reaching the end of his career. He will likely be popular but I have no problems targeting Oliveira in tournaments hoping he can snatch up a submission once again, and if he does that, he will certainly be in play for the optimal lineup.
You can also consider Miller as a sneak underdog option given the ownership on Oliveira and his tendencies to break in fights. This fight as a whole is -350 to end inside the distance so if Oliveira can’t get that submission, there’s a good chance Miller has success.
Fade of the Week
1. Drakkar Klose, 9.3k
There are very strong options in the top tier, and right above Drakkar Klose is Dwight Grant and Juan Adams who are preferred options. Below him is Kevin Lee and Charles Oliveira.
Klose needs a massive score to be even in contention for the optimal lineup and although it’s possible, it’s not an investment worth making. His ITD line is only +426 against Bobby Green and his odds are dropping quickly as he’s -240 to win.
In general Klose is not a power puncher or volume wrestler so he simply doesn’t have a great chance to score well compared to the field and I’m not willing to pay 9.3k to see what happens.