UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Dos Santos Quick Picks
Welcome back to another edition of the UFC Quick Picks!
We continue our long streak of fights with a trip to Wichita, Kansas this week, and although the prize pools aren’t as strong as UFC 235, there is still plenty of money to be won on DraftKings.
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Onto the fights!
Cash Game Plays
1. Tim Means, 8.8k
We have an awkward slate this week as the UFC heads to Kansas for the first time, there aren’t a ton of safe options and nearly every fight is competitive according to the betting line.
One play I feel comfortable with is Tim Means, who is priced at 8.8k. Means is -200 to win which is the second heaviest line on the slate, so he holds a bit of value and is in a favorable matchup against Niko Price.
Though he’s dangerous at times, Price isn’t the most technical fighter and Means should have advantages in most areas, especially on the feet, where he lands 4.78 significant strikes per minute. With the odds value, in combination with solid offensive volume, Means makes for a strong cash play at 8.8k on this slate.
2. Junior Dos Santos, 9.4k
In theory he’s not a safe option, Derrick Lewis can knock Junior Dos Santos out at any time and that’s always worth considering when targeting heavyweight fights.
But outside of the one punch KO, this is Dos Santos’ fight to win. He’s a vastly superior striker, landing 4.78 sig. strikes per minute compared to 2.76, and his cardio is much superior.
Dos Santos has proven capable of calmly outstriking opponents with limited tools for five rounds, like Ben Rothwell and Blagoy Ivanov, and I think that’s likely what happens here. He’s priced up at 9.4k, but Dos Santos is one of the heaviest favorites on the slate and certainly has upside as well with an ITD line of +111.
In cash games, given the five-round potential and strong metrics, I’m willing to take the risk on Dos Santos in cash games.
Tournament Plays
1. Beneil Dariush, 9k
There aren’t as many elite options on this slate as usual, but one fighter I am interested in is Beneil Dariush at 9k.
He’s coming off a strong grappling-based win and has potential to duplicate that performance in this matchup with Drew Dober.
Dariush is a high-level submission grappler with questionable durability, but his Fight IQ is high, and I expect him to once again aim to land takedowns. In theory he should have success, and will have potential to advance position and find a submission.
The finish is not a lock, Dariush has an ITD line of +205, but there’s certainly upside here and I’m willing to take the risk at 9k.
2. Tim Boetsch, 7.7k
This is a total boom or bust option, one that I’m not necessarily sold on but at 7.7k I think you need some exposure to Tim Boetsch.
He hasn’t fought to a decision in his last 10 bouts and has some potential for a knockout against Omari Akhmedov who has been finished multiple times late in fights. Boetsch has a very strong ITD line of +170 and that’s hard for me to ignore.
Even though it’s an extreme risk, clearly Boetsch has upside and for that price, and I’m willing to take a few chance. His ITD line is one of the very best on the entire slate and in the long term that’s something I always look to target.
Fade of the Week
1. Alex Morono, 9.1k
There are more than a few options worth considering as a fade this weekend, but Alex Morono at 9.1k is simply too expensive and I don’t plan to have much, if any exposure.
Morono is facing Zak Ottow, and I expect a decent performance out of him but his betting line has dropped to -165, and he’s clearly overpriced. He has yet to land a takedown in the UFC and is only reliant on sig. strike volume or finishing potential.
With an ITD line of +235, Morono will need a bit of luck to get the finish and have any hope for the optimal lineup. I’m not willing to take the risk on him at such a high price, so he’s my fade of the week.