UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Hunt Quick Picks
Welcome to another edition of the UFC Quick Picks!
If you want FULL BREAKDOWNS of every single fight on this card, projections, rankings and more, you can find that in the Premium Section here. We’ve also launched the Beta version of the MMA LINEUP BUILDER which you can access with my projections if you purchase the premium content.
Myself and h3budda also broke down the card in full on Grinders Live, which can be found here.
Onto the fights!
Cash Game Plays
1. Alexander Volknanovski, $9,300
One of the main aspects we look for in cash games is safety, which can be gained through a variety of routes, including line value and fighting style. Alexander Volkanovski carries a bit of both in this spot against Mizuto Hirota, and I like him as a cash game anchor this weekend.
Volkanovski has only fought once in the UFC, earning a 2nd round TKO, and there’s still some question to how strong of a prospect he will become. But we do know he’s a super aggressive wrestler with power in his hands, and he’s a real offensive threat for those reasons. He will shoot for the takedown relentlessly, and I expect him to get a few in this fight, which raises his overall floor.
Although he’s priced at 9.3k, the highest on the card, he also has line value. He opened around -300 and has since moved -470, making him the biggest favorite on the card by a large margin. I expect him to earn a win here and put up a strong score, so I’m willing to pay the price in cash games.
2. Tim Elliott, $8,700
The cat’s out of the bag on Tim Elliott, and although I think he has the upside worth targeting in tournaments, I also think he makes for a strong cash play. He’s coming off a record-setting 176 point performance, which he earned in a decision win via 12 takedowns and 14 passes. That’s the kind of fighter he is, if he wins it’s going to be a grapple fest.
He’s now fighting Ben Nguyen, a prospect who I really like and enjoy watching, but Elliott should still have his grappling advantages here. If Elliot wins he’s going to land a lot of takedowns and earn a lot of passes, and I think he’s capable of doing that in this spot.
Nguyen should have a striking edge, potentially, but I don’t think he stops Elliott early, so even in a loss Elliott won’t kill your lineup, especially considering his potential high ownership. There’s too much upside on him to avoid Elliott at the price this weekend in any format.
Tournament Plays
1. Ion Cutelaba, $8,900
I’m actually pretty high on Ion Cutelaba as a potential prospect, he’s still a bit raw but he’s ultra-aggressive, durable and has more cardio than the average 205er, so he interests me.
He’s facing Henrique da Silva this week, someone who’s had clear ups and downs in the UFC. To me, this is mostly about the pace of the fight and concerns with Silva’s all-around skill level. I think either the cardio, pace or skill of Cutelaba will be able to expose Silva, and that will give Cutelaba an opportunity to earn a finish. He carries an ITD prop of +100 as a -320 favorite, which are strong numbers for his price of 8.9k.
If he can earn that finish, I think the pace of the fight will lead Cutelaba to a high-scoring total, and I think that makes him worth targeting this weekend.
2. Dominique Steele, $8,500
This is more of a gut play, but I think Dominique Steele carries sneaky upside for his price of 8.5k. He’s facing newcomer Luke Jumeau who’s shown the inability to defend a takedown in several of his fights on the regional scene.
If we know one thing about Steele, it’s that he’s going to come forward and use his strength to try and get the takedown. I do have a bit of concern with Steele’s chin, but he’s fought and beaten much more dangerous opponents than Jumeau, in theory at least, and I expect him to have significant advantages here.
If he can get Jumeau down a few times he should have the potential to earn a finish, which would more than pay off the price tag. He carries an ITD prop of +315 which doesn’t signify he has a great chance to earn a stoppage. But he also shouldn’t be super high owned, and so I’m willing to take some chances on him this weekend.
Fade of the Week
1. John Moraga, $9,200
This comes down to the price more than anything. John Moraga is a “decent” fighter everywhere but he rarely dominates fights, he’s more of an opportunistic fighter who can capitalize on opponents mistakes.
He’s fighting a newcomer in Askhan Mokhtarian, who looks athletic, but I do have concerns with his overall skill. He owns Australian Top Team gym and doesn’t train with any elite fighters, but this is the 125 pound division, and those fighters tend to be more technical than the average debutant.
I think Moraga can and probably should win this fight, but I don’t love the price tag on him. I also don’t love the fact that his odds have dropped significantly since salaries opened, he’s now only a -160 favorite. Even if he comes through with a 100 point score, he still may not payoff the price, which is ultimately why I’m writing him up in this section. Volkanovski has much higher upside, and there are plenty of options below Moraga, so even if he comes through spectacularly, it shouldn’t kill me.