UFC Fight Night: Lineker vs. Dodson Quick Picks
Hello friends, it’s been a long, strenuous week for those of us in the Daily Fantasy MMA industry. As most of you know, the contests weren’t posted until late this afternoon, and with them came big scoring changes.
Here’s a rundown of the new scoring system:
- Rosters will now consist of 6 fighters
- Fighters in each event will accumulate points as follows:
Moves Scoring
Significant Strikes (SS): +0.5 PTS
Advance (ADVC): +3 PT
Takedown (TD): +5 PTS
Reversal/Sweep (REV): +5 PTS
Knockdown (KD): +10 PTS
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win (1rW+): +90 PTS
2nd Round Win (2rW+): +70 PTS
3rd Round Win (3rW+): +45 PTS
4th Round Win (4rW+): +40 PTS
5th Round Win (5rW+): +40 PTS
Decision Win (WBD+) : +30 PTS
This is a HUGE adjustment but it’s an exciting change that should help eliminate ties, among other things. Myself and gravycakes spent a good while talking about the changes, as well as UFC Portland on The Daily Fantasy MMA Podcast. You can listen to that here.
With salaries coming out last minute, there was little time for a full breakdown of this card, so I did my best to break down a few cash game and tournament options below. I also broke a SPECIAL ANNOUNCEMENT that you can find on the Podcast above, so check that out!
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CASH GAME PLAYS
1. Luis Smolka, $9,400
In a card that features several coin flip fights, it’s nice to roster a fighter that Vegas trusts. Luis Smolka is the heaviest favorite on the card at -470, with an inside distance prop of -180. At 9.4k, Smolka isn’t tough to roster and I think he makes for a nice anchor point in your lineups.
Smolka is facing newcomer Brandon Moreno, who’s from the current season of The Ultimate Fighter, and I like Moreno as a prospect. He seems like a fun fighter and he’s relatively well-rounded, and it would not shock me if he keeps up with Smolka for a while.
I’ve never necessarily trusted the striking of Smolka, but it’s hard to ignore his grappling. Moreno is a solid grappler but he’s shown weakness defending the takedown, and I think Smolka can exploit that and look for a submission on the ground. With the added points for takedowns and advances, Smolka is still in for a good score if he can take a decision.
2. Shamil Abdurakhimov, $7,400
Shamil Abdurakhimov is the fifth cheapest fighter on this card, yet he’s a -125 favorite against Walt Harris, and he has an inside distance prop of +187. He’s one of, if not the top value on the board, and for 7.4k, I think he’s in a good spot to save some money.
This is a heavyweight fight, so there’s risk, and Walt Harris is coming off a first round TKO against Cody East, but Abdurakhimov is the more experienced and well-rounded fighter in this match, and I’m trusting in his value.
Even if this fight is a snoozer and goes to decision, Abdurakhimov can still reach value at his low cost.
TOURNAMENT PLAYS
1. Ion Cutelaba and Jonathan Wilson, $8,700 and $7,500
I think the matchup between Ion Cutelaba and Jonathan Wilson is a great place to look for tournaments, on both sides. It’s a very close fight overall, with Cutelaba currently sitting as a -160 favorite, with a finish prop of -111. Wilson is the dog at +140, with a finish prop of +230.
I expect Cutelaba to be the higher owned fighter in this match, as Wilson is coming off a not-so-great knockout loss to Henrique da Silva, and it’s fairly easy to predict Cutelaba stopping him in this fight. Wilson doesn’t have the best cardio and for 8.7k, I will have exposure to Cutelaba.
But Cutelaba has only fought in the UFC once himself, and he lost by submission to Misha Cirkunov. Wilson has proven that although his skills are raw, he has upside to finish quickly. For 7.5k, at a projected lower ownership, I definitely want a piece of him. It would not surprise me in the least if he stopped Cutelaba inside a round and a half, and that could be a game changer in tournaments.
2. Keita Nakamura, $8,400
After earning a submission victory against Kyle Noke, Keita Nakamura gets Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos in another matchup where he could succeed. This should be a striker vs. grappler type fight, with Nakamura being the high-level submission grappler that he is, he should be able to exploit the grappling inefficiency of dos Santos.
Santos should have the advantage on the feet, but he’s been taken down constantly in the UFC, and I think Nakamura can get him to the ground. He has a great chance to lock in another rear-naked choke, and he stands out at 8.4k as a high upside fighter I want exposure to.
FADE OF THE WEEK
1. Hacran Dias, $8,500
The matchup against Andre Fili is one Hacran Dias should win, but I’m not confident in his ability to score.
Dias isn’t a finisher, and with an inside distance prop over +300, he doesn’t jump off the page as someone with upside, especially at the price. I think he could have a difficult time avoiding Fili’s constant offense, and although he should have a distinct wrestling advantage, I think there are better plays in his price range.