UFC Fight Night: Machida vs. Anders Quick Picks

Welcome back to the UFC Quick Picks! We have what I consider a taster card in UFC Belem before the big prizes come out next week for UFC 221. I’ll be honest, this is a tough week, the mid-range is brutal and I am going to play lighter than I do on an average week.

But make no mistake, there is money to be won out there on DraftKings, and I’ve written up some of my favorite plays for the card below.

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CASH GAME PLAYS

1. Eryk Anders, 8.9k

Targeting one or both sides of the main event is generally a priority for me in cash games, and that’s what I’ll be looking to do this week with Eryk Anders at 8.9k. He’s facing an aging Lyoto Machida who just doesn’t put out enough offense at this point in his career and is coming off a brutal knockout loss with a quick turnaround.

Machida is definitely a more technical mixed martial artist at this point, but I’m not sure it matters. Anders has the athleticism of a former NCAA National Champion defensive linebacker and he’s faced the high-pressure situations of competition before. He’s also been training with Stephen Thompson in preparation for Machida, which I like because Thompson is a younger, faster, more explosive version of Machida at this point.

Essentially, Machida is going to look to knock Anders head off as he enters the pocket, and if Anders can avoid that situation, he should win. This is a five round fight so even if he loses a decision he will still score a decent amount of points, and he has definite potential to score 100 or more as well. His ITD line is -192 which is the best on the card, and it’s a sign of the fading durability of Machida.

Regardless of whether he wins or loses, I think Anders is a clear cash game option on DraftKings this week with both a high floor and high ceiling.

2. Valentina Shevchenko, 9.6k

There aren’t a ton of safe options this week, and I think a lot of people will look to fade Valentina Shevchenko because she’s expensive and may not pay off her price tag. She’s not a must play but she’s definitely the safest option on this card, which is why I’m writing her up.

I hate to use the word lock, but she’s as close to a lock to win as there is in MMA, with an overall line of -1000 and an ITD line of -151. She’ll be facing Priscila Cachoeira, an undefeated prospect who simply isn’t ready for the UFC. Shevchenko has moved from 135 to 125 and the UFC wants to set her up with a good win before throwing her into the title mix.

Cachoeira likes to walk down her opponents and brawl, and it sets Shevchenko up to dominate a counter-striking battle or get takedowns and potentially a submission. I don’t think there’s a guarantee that Shevchenko pays off her price in the sense of scoring 120 points, but she’s a near lock for 80-100 and by far the safest option on the card, which I like to target in cash games.

TOURNAMENT PLAYS

1. Marcelo Golm, 8.7k

There is plenty of uncertainty surrounding Marcelo Golm, mostly because he’s a 6-0 fighter with limited experience, facing a veteran in Timothy Johnson. But in tournaments, that fear and uncertainty is frankly irrelevant, because Golm has clear upside as well.

Golm is one of the new breeds of HW, he’s young, fast and seemingly well-rounded. Who knows exactly how far he can go but he does have a knack for finishing, and Johnson is nearing the end of his career. The UFC is clearly sending Johnson to Brazil to get smashed by the prospect, and there’s a chance it just might happen.

Golm has one of the best ITD lines on the card at +105 and has a prop to win in round one at +250, which is strong as well. If Golm wins there is a decent chance he wins with a quick knockout, and that’s the kind of upside I am willing to target in tournaments. There’s definitely a chance his inexperience leads to a poor performance, but you have to take some risks in tournaments and Golm’s upside is the worth the risk.

2. Damir Hadzovic, 7.2k

This is a high-risk, high-reward option I am looking at in the lower tier. Damir Hadzovic is a powerful striker facing a wrestling-based fighter in Alan Patrick, and so the fight will play out one of two ways.

Either Patrick can get the takedowns, and he will likely use them consistently to earn a decision, or he won’t. And if Hadzovic can stuff them, he should have a big advantage on the feet and has real potential to get a knockout. Hadzovic is coming off a fight where he was taken down four times, and so that’s why he’s cheap at 7.2k here, but I don’t completely trust Patrick.

I think Hadzovic is a bit more athletic and strong than some of Patricks’ previous opponents, so he may have more difficulty landing takedowns than we expect. That’s enough for me to take a flier on Hadzovic at his cost.

SNEAKY FIGHT TO TARGET

1. Deiveson Figueiredo vs. Joseph Morales

I’m not counting on Figueiredo vs. Morales to be ultra-popular, but I think it’s an under-the-radar tournament fight to target. Figueiredo is a high paced, power-based fighter with decent takedowns and heavy hands, but he also leaves himself open defensively.

Morales is a young Team Alpha Male prospect with slick submission skills and volume on the feet, but he generally has issues with takedown defense. I’m not 100 percent sure which way this fight will play out but I think both fighters have potential to score highly.

Figueiredo can land takedowns, he can land something heavy or maybe catch a guillotine. Morales can land in volume on the feet or grab a submission if he can earn top position. If the fight is super competitive than it might not score highly, but there should be enough grappling exchanges that if one fighter dominates, he could put up a solid tournament score for cheap.

About the Author

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Brett Appley (bbbomb)

One of the top MMA minds in the DFS industry, Brett Appley a.k.a bbbomb has been writing his weekly “Beat Down” article for RotoGrinders since the sport launched on DraftKings in 2015. Brett has earned multiple Top 10 rankings in MMA since that time and has taken down a handful of tournaments as well.