UFC Fight Night: Machida vs. Brunson Quick Picks
Welcome to the UFC Sao Paulo Picks! I am super excited for this card, it’s one of the best free events of 2017. And UFC 217 is right around the corner, which will be one of the best cards of the year!
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If you want FULL BREAKDOWNS of every single fight on the card, projections, rankings and more, you can find that in the Premium Section here. We’ve also launched the MMA LINEUP BUILDER which you can access with my projections if you purchase the premium content.
Onto the fights!
Cash Game Plays
1. John Lineker, $9,400
It’s not a huge stretch but I think John Lineker is the best cash game play on this card. He’s a massive -550 favorite for good reason, and there’s still value in his 9.4k price tag. Lineker lands at high rate of 5.01 significant strikes per minute, and carries an ITD prop of -127.
He’ll be taking on Marlon Vera who has won a couple fights recently with impressive finishes, but he’s simply overachieving. Once Lineker can close the distance, he should land at will on Vera, and I’m not confident Vera can withstand the powerful hooks. To top it off Lineker is notoriously hard to hurt, and extremely difficult to take down for a wrestler of the caliber of Vera.
There is built in safety when targeting favorites this heavy, and even though he’s expensive, I think Lineker is worth targeting as an anchor in your cash games.
2. Deiveson Figueiredo, $7,300
For the record I am picking Jared Brooks to beat Deiveson Figueiredo, but on DraftKings picking the winners is nowhere near the most important aspect of the game. And in cash games, I am looking for value on the cheap end so that I can pay up for expensive favorites like Lineker.
This week, one value I like in cash games in Figueiredo, who only costs 7.3k. Figueiredo is only a +145 underdog, which means he has several hundred dollars of odds value compared to his price. He’s also a Flyweight, and the Over on 2.5 rounds is -235.
Generally, Flyweights fight at a fast pace and that’s what I expect here. I’m not looking for 100 points. I’m not even looking for a win, but if Figueiredo can last a few rounds, that’s enough to pay off the price in cash games. Plus, Figueiredo actually looked strong in his UFC debut while Brooks did not, so there’s a legitimate chance he can pull off the upset here.
There’s really no risk in punting with a fighter like Figueiredo in cash games, and I think it’s a sharp play.
Tournament Plays
1. Marcelo Golm, $8,800
There’s little tape out there on newcomer Marcelo Golm, but he’s 5-0 with five quick finishes. The combined record of his opponents are 2-10. It’s hard to feel confident in a fighter like that, but he’ll be facing Christian Colombo this weekend, and that’s enough for me to target Golm in tournaments.
Colombo has only fought twice in the UFC, but he hasn’t shown enough ability to be competitive, and it’s clear the UFC is bringing him in here to lose. I don’t know how Golm will react if the fight gets past the first round, maybe he will blow it, but Colombo is about the easiest fight he could.
Golm has very strong odds to finish at -133 ITD and +165 odds to win in the first round. He’ll likely grapple his way to victory, and if he can pull off the quick finish, he will more than pay off his 8.8k price tag. Sure there is risk here, but in tournaments he’s worth the risk.
2. Antonio Carlos Junior, $9,400
I think Antonio Carlos Junior is a strong tournament pivot off John Lineker. I expect Lineker to be more popular, he’s sort of the obvious favorite and in a good spot, and Junior has let many people down in the past.
Junior is a world-class submission grappler, and he’s facing Jack Marshman, a pure boxer. If Junior can’t get the takedown, he’s likely going to lose and probably get knocked out, but I expect him to have a massive grappling advantage. Marshman has only stuffed one of five takedowns in the UFC, against competition worse than Junior. He also doesn’t have anywhere near the grappling credentials of opponents Junior has faced in the past.
Junior has a -165 line to win ITD, which is the best on the card. And we know he’s going to have a grappling-based gameplan, which is the best way to score on DraftKings. It’s a very real possibility he lands takedowns, passes, and earns a submission in the first or second round, and that will likely be enough to surpass the score of Lineker if both win.
Regardless, Junior makes for an excellent tournament option.
Fade of the Week
1. Francisco Trinaldo, $8,600
I say it all the time but I try to put myself out there in this section, and take a risk. Most of the time that includes “fading” someone I think is likely to win. I think Francisco Trinaldo is likely to beat Jim Miller this week, but I’m not going to invest anything significant on DraftKings.
Trinaldo is facing Jim Miller, who is a very strong submission grappler. While Trinaldo does look for the takedown in fights, I don’t think he’s going to grapple much here, it would give Miller a path to victory. Without the grappling, I don’t know how high of an upside Trinaldo has. He only strikes at 3.34 significant strikes per minute, which is fair but not overly impressive.
So for 8.6k, I would really like a finish, assuming he doesn’t grapple. And Jim Miller is one of the toughest dudes in the UFC, he’s only been knocked out once in 38 fights. Trinaldo’s line to finish is +305, which is extremely poor for the price.
Trinaldo should be able to win two or three round with his striking here, and score 70-80 points in a decision win, but that doesn’t excite me enough and I’d rather target other favorites more heavily.