UFC Fight Night: Magny vs. Ponzinibbio Quick Picks
Welcome back to another edition of the UFC Quick Picks!
We continue the long stretch of events with a card in Buenos Aires, Argentina! The fighters on the slate are the not the best or most talented, but there is still money to be won on DraftKings and that’s why we’re here.
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Onto the fights!
Cash Game Plays
1. Santiago Ponzinibbio, 9k
The Main Event favorite this week is Santiago Ponzinibbio who comes in at a 9k price tag against Neil Magny, and to me it makes sense to get cash game exposure here.
There are not a lot of safe plays on the card, Ponzinibbio is one of the heavier favorites at -280 to win and has potential to fight for five full rounds. Ponzinibbio should have the striking advantage against Magny, landing 4.23 significant strikes per minute and he’s certainly the more dangerous kickboxer.
Plus, Ponzinibbio has the best ITD line on the slate at -150 so there is upside here as well. The combination of safety and upside make Ponzinibbio a strong cash game target this week.
2. Alexandre Pantoja, 9.3k
The other fighter I am most willing to pay up for in cash games is Alexandre Pantoja at 9.3k.
He has a strong stylistic matchup this week against Ulka Sasaki, who thrives as a submission grappler in the 125 lb. division. But Pantoja is a better submission grappler than Sasaki and is a much more threatening striker, landing 4.42 significant strikes per minute.
Pantoja has some upside, with an ITD line of +145, but I mostly consider him a safe option with a betting line of -340 and a strong floor. If you are unwilling to play roulette in the mid-range this week and want to pay up for safety, Pantoja is definitely a strong option.
Tournament Plays
1. Khalil Rountree, 8.8k
In tournaments, we are always searching for upside and I think Khalil Rountree has solid upside for his price of 8.8k.
He’s facing a newcomer in Johnny Walker who has questionable striking defense, but the fight overall is -425 to end inside the distance and that intrigues me. Rountree has a -135 ITD line which is one of the best on the slate, and he’s coming off a solid knockout win against Gokhan Saki.
There is absolutely variance and risk in this matchup, but it seems likely to end in a finish and Rountree has a strong chance to earn the early knockout. He’s worth taking the risk on in tournaments, if you are searching for upside.
2. Cezar Ferreira, 8.4k
I always like to target Cezar Ferreira fights because he’s a strong submission grappler with questionable durability. Often times his fights end via submission, or end with him knocked out and I think those are both reasonable outcomes this week.
He’ll be fighting Ian Heinisch who is taking this fight on short notice and making his UFC debut, and although Heinisch has potential to earn the knockout, I also think Ferreira is live for the submission.
Ferreira is only priced at 8.4k and has an ITD line of +140, he has potential to score well in a victory. I am absolutely willing to take risks on both he and his opponent this week in tournaments and hope the fight ends inside the distance.
Fade of the Week
1. Ricardo Lamas, 8.7k
I actually don’t have a strong take this week, you don’t necessarily have to fade Ricardo Lamas but I do think he’s worth taking an underweight stance at 8.7k.
The problem with Lamas is that he doesn’t produce offense at a high rate, landing only 2.73 significant strikes per minute with 1.55 takedowns per 15 minutes. At his price, he won’t hit the optimal lineup without earning a finish, and he’s fighting the notoriously durable Darren Elkins.
With an ITD line of +235 and a high price tag, I think lowering your exposure to Lamas makes sense. He might be able to finish Elkins, but it’s not something I can count on and there are so many other strong plays on the slate.