UFC Fight Night: Maia vs. Condit Quick Picks
Welcome back to another week of fights. How great was UFC 202!?!? After re-watching, I’m 100 percent confident McGregor came away with the victory and I’m glad the judges got that one right.
Due to a bit of a short week for me, I’ve pulled out my Quick Picks article, where you’ll find a couple cash game and tournament options, along with my fade of the week.
If you want full breakdowns of each fight, don’t fear, I spent an hour and a half breaking down the card with fellow analyst LeRoiStephon on The Daily Fantasy MMA Podcast. You can watch that full episode here.
Follow me on Twitter at BrettAppley and at DailyFanMMA.
CASH GAME PLAYS
1. Chad Laprise, $9,000
Going against the grain, my first cash game play isn’t a fighter in the main event, but instead it’s Chad Laprise at 9.9k. Laprise isn’t going to terrorize the division and get a title shot with a win here, but for the price, he’s a fantastic value.
Laprise is the heaviest favorite on the card at -280 with an inside distance prop of +200. He’d normally cost you around 11k to roster, but due to another week of awkward pricing on DraftKings, he becomes an instant intrigue at his sub 10k price.
He’ll be taking on Thibault Gouti who hasn’t looked great in his two UFC fights. His debut ended with a near instant finish against Teemu Packalen, and his second fight ended with a Round 3 submission against Olivier Aubin-Mercier.
Both Laprise and Gouti are strikers so I expect the fight to play out on the feet, which means Laprise has a high enough floor. I think he’s the more technical fighter of the two, and although there are minor chin concerns for both, I still think Laprise has the advantage. He may not be the most likely fighter to win by 1st round KO, but he’s a safe play in your cash game rosters.
2. Alessio Di Chirico, $11,000
It feels a bit weird recommending Di Chirico as a cash game play at 11k, but here we are. You can scoff at his price or 0-1 record in the UFC but here’s the bottom line: Di Chirico is a very large favorite in comparison to the majority of fighters on this card at -250, with a finish prop of +100, and even though he costs a lot, he should be fairly easy to fit in.
He’s fighting Garreth McLellan who failed to impress me for the third time in the UFC, as he nonchalantly suffered a TKO against Magnus Cedenblad in May. I don’t think Di Chirico is as good of a prospect as Cedenblad, but but he should have advantages here and I like his chances to get the win.
He landed 4.33 significant strikes per minute in his debut against Bojan Velickovic and landed a couple takedowns as well, and as long as this fight stays on the feet, he shouldn’t face too many road blocks. I do think Di Chirico will face an early test of his takedown defense, but he should hopefully fight through that.
Even though he’s expensive, I think he’s worth targeting in cash games as a safer-than-most bet to come away with a victory.
TOURNAMENT PLAYS
1. Anthony Pettis, $10,400
Coming off of three not-so-great losses, Anthony Pettis is dropping down to 145 lbs. to make his Featherweight debut against Charles Oliveira, and I’m really liking Pettis in this spot.
In his losses to Dos Anjos and Alvarez, the wrestling was Pettis’ kryptonite, and it’s clear that he’ll have struggles against high level wrestlers. In the loss against Barboza, it was the technical striking. I don’t think Oliveira has the wrestling to get Pettis down and I definitely don’t think he can compete on the feet.
Oliveira has also been known to quit in fights, or he looks for a way out if he can get things going quickly. It wouldn’t shock me if Pettis landed a body shot early that hurt Oliveira, and I think that may lead to an early TKO.
I’m OK with rostering Pettis in cash games, but I think the upside is what we want to target here, and if there’s going to be a declined ownership due to recency bias on his previous losses, I definitely want a lot of exposure to Pettis this weekend.
2. Adam Hunter, $9,700
Adam Hunter is your classic GPP fighter – he’s making his UFC debut with a questionable resume, but he’s got massive power in his hands. His inside distance prop sits at +114 and he’s only priced at 9.7k, making him a value for his -160 odds to win.
Hunter isn’t a great prospect overall and he’s fighting an opponent who will have a huge advantage on the ground. If that opponent, Ryan Janes, gets Hunter to the mat, this fight could be over quickly. But if Hunter can keep it standing, I think he has a great shot for a first round knockout. This is no safe play by any means, but there’s upside here, and I think Hunter is a strong play.
FADE OF THE WEEK
1. Demian Maia, $9,600
I definitely think Demian Maia has a chance to beat Carlos Condit in the main event, but I’m not concerned with that. What I am concerned with are his scoring opportunities on DraftKings.
Maia is a ground specialist who will only have success getting and keeping this fight on the ground, and he’s very good at that. I think he can get Condit down and win several rounds that way, possibly winning by decision or submission.
I don’t think his chances to finish are strong, however, and with a finish prop of +422, Vegas doesn’t have high hopes. If Maia can’t finish within the first two rounds, he won’t score enough significant strikes to make him worth while in tournaments. Even if he finishes late, I don’t think he’ll pass that 100 point mark.
Overall, Maia makes me shy away from the main event as a whole, but I’m definitely leaning toward fading Maia on his own completely.