UFC Fight Night: Maia vs. Usman Quick Picks
Welcome to another edition of the UFC Quick Picks! Unfortunately we don’t have the top prize pools coming off UFC 224 and heading to UFC Chile for this weekend’s event, but there’s still money to be won!
And there’s actually some solid, fun fights on free TV, what’s not to like?
If you want FULL BREAKDOWNS of every single fight on the card, projections, rankings and more, you can find that in the Premium Section here. We’ve also launched the MMA LINEUP BUILDER which you can access with my projections if you purchase the premium content.
Onto the fights!
Cash Game Plays
1. Tatiana Suarez, 9.3k
There are two massive favorites on this card, Kamaru Usman and Tatiana Suarez, and with Suarez climbing to -900 on the betting line, she’s very arguably the top overall play on the slate.
It’s not just the betting line, it’s her fighting style. She’s a world-level wrestler and very strong for the 115 division, and her opponent Alexa Grasso is not a great defensive wrestler. Grasso allowed four takedowns to Randa Markos and two to Felice Herrig, and it’s very likely she allows some to Suarez.
Along with that, Suarez has shown a strong ability to advance position on the ground and search for a submission. Wrestlers score the highest on DraftKings and a solid wrestler with a -900 betting line is just too good to pass up, even for 9.3k.
2. Gabriel Benitez, 8.5k
There are routes to go which don’t include Gabriel Benitez in your cash lineups, but I do think he’s one of the better value plays on the card and should be considered in this format.
Benitez is -225 to win against Humberto Bandenay and only priced at 8.5k, so he has about $300 of value on that tag. Even though Benitez is unlikely to wrestle, he can strike at a high rate and has a strong ITD line at +134. So even though we’re targeting him for safety in comparative to the odds, he offers upside as well.
Targeting the best value plays from a odds vs. price metric is a very simple method to help you make solid cash game teams in this sport, and it’s something I will always look toward in the long run. Benitez is a solid value play and therefore a solid cash game play as well.
Tournament Plays
1. Andrea Lee, 9.2k
I love the top tier for tournaments this week, almost every play is a very strong one, so we’re splitting hairs here, but one play I like who could be under-owned is Andrea Lee at 9.2k.
Lee is making her UFC debut as a highly touted prospect, and whether or not you believe she has the deserved hype, she’s the favorite in this matchup for a reason. Her opponent Veronica Macedo has only fought once in the UFC, two years ago when she was 20, and she was smashed by Ashlee-Evans smith.
Lee is absolutely a better striker than Evans-Smith and arguably a better submission grappler, so if she can get Macedo on the mat we could see a similar result. And her ITD line of +120 is among the best on the slate. Macedo’s game is mostly tied to spinning kicks and leg locks, so there’s a real chance the two years off haven’t turned her into a legitimate UFC talent.
Lee has risk, but for her lower ownership I’m absolutely willing to take some chances on her in hopes she can mimic the Evans-Smith result and put Macedo away.
2. Enrique Barzola, 8.9k
Going with the theme of targeting wrestlers, nobody wrestles at a higher rate on this card than Enrique Barzola (besides Suarez). Barzola has landed 5.4 takedowns per 15 minutes in his five UFC bouts.
He’ll be fighting Brandon Davis this Saturday, and it should be obvious what he needs to do, which is get the fight on the ground. I think he’s capable of that, but I also DO NOT think he can just hold Davis down for three full rounds. I expect Davis to get back up to his feet because he’s fairly athletic and Barzola struggles to control fighters on the ground.
And this is why Barzola has that upside and wrestles at a high rate, he has to land more than one takedown to get a big advantage. He’s landed seven and nine takedowns already in a UFC fight and I think he’s capable of putting up five or more in this matchup as well.
For 8.9k, if he can mix in some significant strikes and a few advances, he’s capable of reaching the upside we look for in tournaments.
Fade of the Week
1. Frankie Saenz, 9.1k
As I mentioned earlier, I love the top tier.
Luque, Barzola, Reyes, Lee, Suarez, Silva and Usman are very viable tournament options.
But I can’t play them all, and with Frankie Saenz stuck in there at 9.1k, he simply doesn’t make the cut. He has the ability to wrestle and strong odds to win, it’s possible he puts up a high score. I just don’t want to invest my money in him when I have so many other strong options, and his odds of putting up that tournament-winning number is just not that high.
At 9.1k, Saenz is too expensive for my taste, I think he’s a fairly easy pass this weekend.