UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Zombie Quick Picks
Welcome back to another edition of the UFC Quick Picks!
We have a fun action card this weekend for UFC Greenville, with at least $200k up for grabs and several qualifier seats. I’ve done my best to give you some of my favorite options below to help you get started.
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Onto the fights!
Cash Game Plays
1. Renato Moicano, 8.6k
As usual, the Main Event is a fight I am interested in getting a piece of when constructing my cash game lineups, and that puts both Renato Moicano and Chan Sung Jung squarely in play.
My preferred option is Moicano at 8.6k, he’s a -220 favorite with a +154 ITD line, which are solid metrics for the price tag. Moicano has landed 5.6 significant strikes per minute in his UFC career and should definitely be able to approach 100 points even in a decision victory.
I do have some concerns with his five-round cardio and ability to take damage, which is where Jung comes into play. But overall, Moicano is a very strong cash game option and definitely worth consideration at the price.
2. Bryan Barberena, 9.2k
Truthfully, I don’t think there are any must-play cash game targets this week outside of the Main Event, but one fighter I do want to single out is Bryan Barberena.
He’s a bit expensive at 9.2k, but he carries a -265 betting line which is one of the best on the slate. Barberena has landed 5.9 significant strikes per minute throughout his UFC career and has no problems fighting for a hard 15 minutes.
Coming off an impressive performance against Vincente Luque, he should be able to handle a step down in competition against Randy Brown. Barberena is also +130 to win ITD which only adds to his potential. He’s a very strong mix of safety and upside and so I think Barberena is worth consideration if you’re spending up in cash games.
Tournament Plays
1. Jairzinho Rozenstruik, 9k
With tournaments, we’re essentially only looking for upside, and that’s why I am interested in Jairzinho Rozenstruik at 9k.
Rozenstruik is a high-level kickboxer and this is the heavyweight division, there’s always a chance Rozenstruik can come through with an early knockout. He’ll be taking on Allen Crowder, who has absorbed quite a bit of damage from Justin Willis and Greg Hardy.
Rozenstruik has the best ITD line on the entire slate at -133, and that’s indicative of the skill discrepancy in striking between the two.
If this fight stays standing, I think Rozenstruik has potential to earn his second UFC knockout and he would be well worth the price on DraftKings in tournaments.
2. Anderson Dos Santos, 7.9k
There aren’t a ton of fighters priced below the mid-range that intrigue me, but one option I like is Anderson Dos Santos at 7.9k.
Santos will be taking on Andre Ewell, a very lengthy boxer who should hold the advantage while the fight stays standing. But Ewell doesn’t have a very strong ground game, and that’s where Santos excels.
If Santos can earn some top position, he should have potential to advance position, take the back and finish with a submission. He’s only -110 to win which is strong for the price, and has a decent ITD line of +218.
In tournaments, I’m absolutely willing to take some chances on a fighter with good value, good grappling potential and the ability to finish.
Fade of the Week
1. Ariane Lipski, 9.1k
While there aren’t several fighters that stand out as must plays in the top tier of pricing this week, there are a handful of options I would like exposure to. Some include Luis Pena, Derron Winn, Bryan Barberena, Jair Rozenstruik and more.
Ariane Lipski just isn’t going to make the cut for me at 9.1k. She has a decent chance to win, she may land with some volume and her ITD line is not terrible at +180, but I can’t prioritize her over any of those other options I named.
While she may score well, I’ll take my chances that Lipski does not end up on the optimal lineup this weekend.