UFC Fight Night: Ngannou vs Dos Santos Quick Picks

Welcome back to another edition of the UFC Quick Picks!

There will be fireworks this weekend as Francis Ngannou takes on Junior Dos Santos in the Main Event, and as usual, there will be plenty of opportunities to win $$$ on DraftKings. I’ve listed some of my favorite plays below to help you get started.

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Onto the fights!

Cash Game Plays

1. Jared Gordon, 9.2k

With a high-variance matchup in the Main Event this weekend between Francis Ngannou and Junior Dos Santos, I’m looking for a bit more safety elsewhere. In cash games, Jared Gordon fits that bill and makes for a strong target at 9.2k.

Gordon has landed 7.48 significant strikes per minute, along with 3.46 takedowns per 15 minutes through his first four UFC bouts, which means he is producing offense at an extremely high rate. That has led to massive DraftKings scores, and it gives Gordon an extremely high floor in comparison to other options in his range.

Gordon is -310 to beat Dan Moret this weekend so he holds safety in terms of the betting line, and we also get him at a bit of a discount compared to Dober and Anders. Gordon is my favorite cash game play on this slate.

2. Polo Reyes, 6.7k

There are no obvious punts or salary savers in cash games on this slate, in which case I tend to pay down as far as possible. Polo Reyes is priced at 6.7k, and that’s about the only reason I am willing to target him.

Reyes is a capable puncher with power in his hands, but he’s still +260 to win against Drew Dober, and I’m not necessarily expecting a strong performance. The problem is even if you pay up to 7.5k, you aren’t necessarily getting a better value.

Reyes has a reasonable chance to survive three rounds and he allows you to comfortable fit several high-priced options, which is certainly a strategy to consider this weekend.

Tournament Plays

1. Alonzo Menifield, 9k

With only one fight in the UFC, Alonzo Menifield has already proven he holds devastating knockout power, and is always going to be a threat for a first round finish.

He’ll take on Paul Craig this weekend, who is a grappling specialist and won’t be able to compete with Menifield while this fight plays out on the feet. Craig has already been knocked out in the UFC, and Menifield should hold a massive physicality and athletic advantage.

Menifield is -255 to win and -150 to win inside the distance, and he has legitimate first round knockout upside. For 9k, I am absolutely willing to take chances on Menifield in tournaments.

2. Dalcha Lungiambula, 8.7k

Sometimes, we have to play the numbers when looking for tournament upside, and Dalcha Lungiambula has very strong metrics this weekend against Dequan Townsend.

Lungiambula and Townsend are both making their UFC debuts, Townsend on very short notice, and Lungiambula is a large -325 favorite. But he’s only priced at 8.7k, which means there is significant price value on that line, and he’s also -160 ITD which is one of the best on the slate.

The simple truth is that Lungiambula has potential to win inside the distance, in the first or second round, and he’s priced very cheaply in comparison to his metrics. I am always interested in value plays with upside, and Lungiambula fits that bill for tournaments.

Fade of the Week

1. Ricardo Ramos, 9.1k

I don’t particularly mind Ricardo Ramos, but at 9.1k, it’s extremely hard to prioritize him over other options. He’s only +200 to win ITD, and fights at a relatively slow pace, which means he absolutely needs the finish to end up on the optimal lineup.

Even with a finish, there are so many other strong targets, including Dober, Anders, Gordon, Menifield, Roberts, Ngganou, Maia, Lungiambula and so on. I can’t play everyone in this tier, and I’d rather focus on the fighters with the most upside.

About the Author

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Brett Appley (bbbomb)

One of the top MMA minds in the DFS industry, Brett Appley a.k.a bbbomb has been writing his weekly “Beat Down” article for RotoGrinders since the sport launched on DraftKings in 2015. Brett has earned multiple Top 10 rankings in MMA since that time and has taken down a handful of tournaments as well.