UFC Fight Night: Oezdemir vs. Smith Quick Picks
Welcome back to another edition of the UFC Quick Picks!
The rest of 2018 should be filled with fun fights, big events and big prize pools. This week is not the most exciting slate in the world but it’s just a taster for what’s to come.
If you want FULL BREAKDOWNS of every single fight on the card, projections, rankings and more, you can find that in the Premium Section here. We’ve also launched the MMA LINEUP BUILDER which you can access with my projections if you purchase the premium content.
Onto the fights!
Cash Game Plays
1. Nasrat Haqparast, 9.7k
The slate this week is pretty clearly split into tiers, with several high-priced favorites at the top and a bunch of untrustworthy options in the mid-range.
I can’t fault you for targeting any fighter 9.4k and above in cash games, all make for elite cash game plays, but if I’m paying up my preference is Nasrat Haqparast at 9.7k. He’s just the safest option on the card, both in terms of floor and ceiling.
Haqparast is -900 to win which provides more safety than any other fighter, and his ITD is one of the best on the slate at -225. Plus he has landed a solid four significant strikes per minute and has a solid grappling game to back it up. He’s coming off a decision win over Marc Diakiese in which he scored 87 points.
Maybe it’s not enough to win tournaments, but in cash games he’s one of my favorite options on the slate.
2. Talita Bernardo, 7.5k
There aren’t many obvious places to save this week, but one of the cheaper fighters I have my eye on is Talita Bernardo at 7.5k.
Bernardo is facing Sarah Moras and neither woman projects as a legitimate talent in this division. Both have serious flaws. Both also focus on grappling more than striking and I expect this fight to hit the mat sooner or later.
Bernardo is reliant on the takedown and Moras has shown willingness to play off her back, I think there’s potential for Bernardo to last the full three rounds and score a few takedowns along the way. She’s also dropped to +150 on the betting line which is not bad value for the price.
Tournament Options
1. Te Edwards, 9.4k
Making his UFC debut after a first-round knockout in Dana White’s Tuesday Night Contender Series, Te Edwards is a legitimate prospect and has a high-upside matchup this weekend against Don Madge.
Edwards has a high-level wrestling pedigree but he’s always used that to keep the fight standing where he attempts to knockout his opponent, and that game plan has worked almost every time.
He’s an elite athlete and although there are still questions to be answered, I believe Edwards has upside for another first round KO this weekend. He’s priced up at 9.4k but he carries the best ITD line on the slate at -240 with a +140 prop to win in round one.
Edwards will need that finish to hit the optimal lineups but I’m willing to take some chances on him based on those metrics and his athletic prowess.
2. Volkan Oezdemir, 8.4k
Whether you side with Volkan Oezdemir or Anthony Smith in the Main Event, it’s hard to argue that Oezdemir has upside. He’s only priced at 8.4k and the fight as a whole is -925 to end in a finish.
If Oezdemir wins, there’s a strong chance it’s ITD and his line of -141 backs that up. He has legitimate knockout power and lands at a rate of 5.91 significant strikes per minute. Oezdemir has potential to win by knockout in round one or round two and that’s enough for me to invest in him at the price.
I will likely have shares of Smith as well in case he survives the early bursts and can punish Oezdemir late, but I believe Oezdemir has legitimate upside and is one of the better tournament options on the slate.
Fade of the Week
1. Arjan Bhullar, 8.8k
With so many heavy favorites who are likely to win inside the distance, I’m concerned with paying up for Arjan Bhullar at 8.8k. He’s only a few hundred dollars away from the big guns, and his metrics don’t come close to those above him.
He’s only -200 to win and has an ITD line of +370, which is not strong for the price. He’s also landed significant strikes at a low rate of 1.5 and has struggled to dominate on the ground. He has a strong chance to beat Marcelo Golm this weekend but I doubt he’s capable of reaching the optimal lineup without an impressive finish.
And based on his metrics, and the price, I will be taking an underweight stance to Bhullar this weekend.