UFC Fight Night: OSP vs. Okami Quick Picks
Welcome to the UFC Japan Quick Picks! We have a Friday night card for the hardcore fans this week, and then a week off prior to the big UFC 216, featuring two title fights and big prizes.
Before we start, make sure to get Charles Rosa and Mizuto Hirota off your lineups, as the fight was canceled late Thursday.
NEW TO MMA PREMIUM: I’ve decided to add my personal bets, betting breakdown videos and strategies to MMA Premium, which you can find in the link below.
If you want FULL BREAKDOWNS of every single fight on the card, projections, rankings and more, you can find that in the Premium Section here. We’ve also launched the MMA LINEUP BUILDER which you can access with my projections if you purchase the premium content.
Onto the fights!
Cash Game Plays
1. Dong Hyun Kim, 9.1k
There are two Dong Hyun Kim’s in the UFC, this is the smaller one, “The Maestro” and he’s only won one of his three UFC fights. But he’s facing Takanori Gomi this weekend, and anyone fighting against Gomi is essentially an auto-play.
Gomi was at the top of the sport years ago, but he’s no longer competitive with UFC competition and has been finished in the first round in four consecutive fights. In each fight he has hit the ground and essentially quits. Kim isn’t the best fighter in the world but there’s no reason to think he cannot earn a win here, and he’ll be the most popular play in cash games.
Kim comes in as a -370 favorite and has a ITD line of -255 which is massive. He also carries a -115 line to win inside the first round. Those odds provide safety and he’s my top cash game play this weekend.
2. Ovince Saint Preux, 9.5k
I wouldn’t consider OSP a must, as he’s expensive at 9.5k, but I do think he’s a safe play and someone you should consider for your cash games. He’s facing an aging veteran in Yushin Okami, who is fighting on very short notice.
More importantly, Okami is moving up from the 170 lb. division to fight at 205, which is two entire weight classes. It’s not something impossible to overcome, but it’s another mark on a tough situation.
Saint Preux is the heaviest favorite on the card at -440, and OSP carries an ITD line of -185. On a high variance card, OSP is someone you can consider for cash games, especially fighting in the five-round main event.
Tournament Plays
1. Gokhan Saki, 8.6k
This fight is super odd, Gokhan Saki is a world-class kickboxer who has only fought once in MMA, a fight in 2004 which he lost. He hasn’t even fought in a kickboxing match in the past two and a half years, but he’s a favorite over Henrique da Silva.
I think the fight itself is pretty clear cut. Either Saki can keep the fight standing in which case he will likely knock Silva out, or Silva will get the fight to the ground and win by submission. I know there will be people who fall on their sword one way or the other, there’s no reason for that, you should definitely play both sides in tournaments. My preferred play is Saki though, who has an ITD line of -138.
Arguably, the most important aspect is that the fight will start standing. Silva has to get the fight down. I’m sure he’s trained wrestling before but I haven’t seen any of it in the UFC, and all Saki has done for this camp is train takedown defense. It’s certainly possible, but I can easily see him wanting to test his striking, as opposed to going all out for the takedown. I think the most likely outcome here is an early knockout, and Saki is one of my favorite tournament plays.
But again, the proper play is certainly to hedge with Silva, or vice versa.
2. Jussier Formiga, 9.2k
The biggest reason behind this selection is that I think Jussier Formiga will be less popular than OSP above him, and Dong Hyun Kim below him. All three make for strong tournament plays, but I think people are overlooking the upside on Formiga.
He’s facing Ulka Sasaki, a good submission grappler. But Formiga is a far better submission grappler, and one of the best back specialists in the UFC. Sasaki is generally unable to outwrestle opponents, both offensively and defensively, and when Formiga has the wrestling advantage, he usually wins.
I think he can get the takedown here, which will lead to passes, which will likely lead to potential submission opportunities. Sasaki is good, but Formiga is world-class, and I think it’s possible he gets the finish. I also like the fact that he’s grappling dependent, meaning if he does get that finish there will likely be a ton of points to accompany it. His ITD line is only +173, but with the ownership, I’m definitely willing to target him.