UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Arlovski Beat Down
Welcome back to another edition of the UFC Beat Down, and we come into this event on a super hot streak. I’ll toot my horn a little bit and brag about the fact that I had my best week of MMA last event, as I took down the Takedown on DraftKings.
I did receive a lot of messages and I appreciated them all, and I’m hopeful that everyone reading can share in my success and score some of their own this week. If you do the research, it will pay off.
I’m also excited for this card because Josh Emmett of Team Alpha Male is making his UFC debut on short notice. I’ve watched Emmett a quite a few teams on the regional circuit and I’m happy to see him get his chance, he’s a stud. He defeated my friend and former BJJ coach Brandon Ricetti in a tough 5-round fight to take home the West Coast Fighting Championship, and Ricetti was previously 7-0 undefeated with seven quick submissions. You can watch that fight here and you can watch another one of Brandon’s top fights against a stud striker here.
Follow me on Twitter at BrettAppley and at DailyFanMMA to get the first look at a new episode of The Daily Fantasy MMA Podcast, and check out another edition of the Daily Fantasy Takedown on RotoGrinders.
Onto the fights!
MAIN CARD
Alistair Overeem vs. Andrei Arlovski
Fight Odds: Overeem -225, Arlovski +185
Odds to finish: -700
Salaries: Overeem 10.3k, Arlovski 9.1k
Weight Class: HW
As soon as you think you have a read on the Heavyweight division, you get bit from behind, and that’s always something to remember when analyzing fights. While it may be obvious that one fighter is better, these men each posses the power to end the night with one punch, and that’s why HW fights are never locks.
On paper, this looks like a pretty good matchup for Alistair Overeem, and as the main event favorite in a five-round fight, I definitely like him for the price. Same goes for Andrei Arlovski, if he wins, it’s likely to be a high scoring affair and most likely a quick knockout.
Overeem is the more technical striker in my opinion and he’s looked sharp in his past few fights, most recently knocking out Junior Dos Santos. Arlovski has been knocked out plenty of times before and it wouldn’t surprise me if Overeem scored an early finish. I also think he’s capable of out-striking Arlovksi in a decision.
I ALSO think it’s possible that these two men stare at each other for 25 minutes and the fight is extremely boring. But, I’m willing to take the chance that these fighters look for the finish, and I’ll have exposure to both in cash games and tournaments.
One interesting factor that favors Arlovski is that he gets the full attention from Greg Jackson and co. and they’ll be cornering him this weekend against teammate Overeem. It’s likely that Arlovski will come in with a good gameplan and look to exploit some of Overeem’s weaknesses, but it’s another thing for him to be successful doing so.
Fight Prediction: Overeem by TKO, RD 2
Antonio Silva vs. Stefan Struve
Fight Odds: Struve -190, Silva +165
Odds to finish: -565
Salaries: Struve 9.9k, Silva 9.5k
Weight Class: HW
I honestly don’t know how or why Antonio “Bigfoot” Silva is still in the UFC but since he tested positive for PEDs in 2013, he’s 1-3 inside the Octagon and he’s been knocked out in the first round in all three losses. Prior to that he was explosive and had a granite chin, but now he’s a mere mortal and I’m going to target his opponent nearly regardless of who it is.
This time around, Silva gets Stefan Struve, a heavyweight who’s frustrating in his own special kind of way. At 7’0” tall, you would think Struve would have learned how to use his size and reach efficiently but he does not, and his questionable chin only adds to his inconsistencies. He went on a 6-1 streak between 2010-2012 where he finished all six of his opponents and looked like he might get a title shot, but he followed that up with two TKO losses, a heart injury, and a couple more meh performances.
With all that said, I still like Struve to beat Silva because I feel like any reasonably talented HW should beat Silva. Bigfoot’s only win since Feb 2013 came against Soa Palelei, who is no longer with the UFC.
I’m hoping beyond hope that Struve comes out aggressively and looks to strike with Silva, and if he does that, I’m expecting a quick finish. If he’s too passive and let’s Bigfoot clinch with him and build some momentum, I can’t rule out a TKO from Bigfoot, and I think a decision victory from Struve is also a possibility.
I won’t say he’s my most confident play, but I will have plenty of exposure to Struve in tournaments, and I think he’s a worthy cash game play as well. As much as I hate to say this, I expect Bigfoot to go overlooked and based on his projected ownership, I think he’s a reasonable tournament play as well.
Fight Prediction: Struve by TKO, RD 1
Albert Tumenov vs. Gunnar Nelson
Fight Odds: Tumenov -170, Nelson +150
Odds to finish: -135
Salaries: Tumenov 10.5k, Nelson 8.9k
Weight Class: 170
This is a classic striker vs. grappler matchup between Albert Tumenov and Gunnar Nelson. It’s simple in that sense, if Tumenov can keep the fight standing, he should have no problem out-striking jiu-jitsu ace Nelson to a win. If Nelson can get the fight to the ground, he’ll have a great chance to submit Tumenov.
Because the fight is black and white, I will lean toward it in GPPs as opposed to cash games. For the price, I definitely think Nelson is worth a look, but I still have to side with Tumenov as my pick. He’s been taken down before, but Nelson doesn’t have elite wrestling and I think Tumenov will have success keeping the fight on the feet.
Nelson is pretty tough so I don’t think this is a lock to finish if the fight stays standing, but I’ll have some exposure to Tumenov regardless. He’s shown the ability to KO opponents enough times that I know the upside is there.
Fight Prediction: Tumenov by Decision
Germaine de Randamie vs. Ana Elmose
Fight Odds: Randamie -420, Elmose +335
Odds to finish: -140
Salaries: Randamie 10k, Elmose 9.4k
Weight Class: 135
Germaine de Randamie may very well be one of the most technical female strikers in the UFC, in the upper tier that includes Joanna Jedrzejczyk, Holly Holm and others. She’s coming off an impressive TKO finish against Larissa Pacheco and she gets a good matchup here against 3-0 newcomer Ana Elmose.
Whether or not you believe in the striking of Randamie or Elmose, who has won all three fights by TKO, Randamie is extremely underpriced compared to her odds to win and finish. As a -420 favorite, she’s the second heaviest favorite on the card besides Kyoji Horiguchi, and I think she makes an excellent play for that reason alone.
Elmose is an interesting fighter because she’s super aggressive and has heavy hands, but she won’t be able to compete with Randamie on the feet. Her best chance to win is by bull-rushing Randamie into the clinch and looking for a takedown, which I’ve thought at times is a possibility. But, Randamie is a world class muay-thai striker and she should be much better than Elmose in the clinch.
This fight may be close early but I think the longer it goes, the more Randamie will break through and land shots on Elmose. Target her in all formats.
Fight Prediction: Randamie by Decision
Nikita Krylov vs. Francimar Barroso
Fight Odds: Krylov -210, Barroso +175
Odds to finish: -240
Salaries: Krylov 10.1k, Barroso 9.3k
Weight Class: 205
Even though both fighters have burned me in the past (I haven’t forgiven you Mutapcic), I’m pretty confident in Nikita Krylov in this matchup against Francimar Barroso. It mostly comes down to a matchup of styles for me: I’m not a fan of Barroso because he only throws one-punch combinations and he loads up on big shots. He’s not a knockout artist by any means, and when he’s not throwing that single shot, he’s not really doing anything.
Barroso has decent wrestling and grappling but he hasn’t shown to be effective in the Octagon. This is a guy who lost to Hans Stringer and did not look impressive against Mutapcic or Ryan Jimmo, and I just can’t target him in this fight.
Krylov on the other hand is ultra-aggressive, which can sometimes spell disaster for larger fighters when they can’t get the early finish, but Krylov has been extremely successful with his gameplan and has finished four of his last five fights in the first round.
As long as this fight stays standing, I expect Krylov to be winning. He simply strikes much more and lands much more than Barroso, which makes me think Barroso will look for the takedown. Krylov has shown sub-par takedown defense at times but he’s also shown an ability to scramble and look for submissions.
I really like Krylov as a GPP play because if he wins, I think it’s likely an early finish.
Fight Prediction: Krylov by TKO, RD 1
Karolina Kowalkiewicz vs. Heather Jo Clark
Fight Odds: Kowalkiewicz -265, Clark +225
Odds to finish: +190
Salaries: Kowalkiewicz 11.2k, Clark 8.2k
Weight Class: 115
This fight between Karolina Kowalkiewicz and Heather Jo Clark should be simple enough to break down for DFS purposes. Kowalkiewicz is way over priced and I really don’t think there’s any need to pay up for her. I like her, she’ll probably win this fight and score 70 points, and if you want safety and have the savings, go for it. But there are so many higher upside targets with a low price tag and I firmly expect many of them to come through, so I’ll be fading Kowalkiewicz this weekend.
I’m not a fan of Clark either, even though she has odds value. I don’t expect her to land many significant strikes or get the win. This fight is a hard pass for me.
Fight Prediction: Kowalkiewicz by Decision
UNDERCARD
Rustam Khabilov vs. Chris Wade
Fight Odds: Khabilov -210, Wade +175
Odds to finish: +163
Salaries: Khabilov 10.4k, Wade 9k
Weight Class: 155
This is another fight between Rustam Khabilov and Chris Wade that I don’t want much if any exposure to. Khabilov isn’t much of a finisher and he doesn’t land many significant strikes, so I don’t want the 10.4k price tag on him.
Wade isn’t much of a finisher either, and both guys like to grind which makes me think this fight will take place in the clinch against the cage for the most part. I’m going to side with Vegas for the pick overall and take Khabilov, but I don’t want any part of this in fantasy.
Fight Prediction: Khabilov by Decision
Magnus Cedenblad vs. Garreth McLellan
Fight Odds: Cedenblad -355, McLellan +255
Odds to finish: -165
Salaries: Cedenblad 10.6k, McLellan 8.8k
Weight Class: 185
I really like Magnus Cedenblad in tournaments against Garreth McLellan in this fight. Cedenblad is risky because he hasn’t fought since October 2014 and he doesn’t land many significant strikes. But, the upside is there to finish, and Vegas tagged him with a -115 prop to win inside the distance, which is pretty high.
McLellan won pretty impressively in his last fight, but I can’t and won’t trust fighters out of EFC Africa. Cedenblad is the much better fighter and if he’s healthy and strong coming off the long layoff, I expect him to dominate and possibly score an early submission. I expect his ownership to be extremely low so I target him as a contrarian upside option.
Fight Prediction: Cedenblad by RNC, RD 1
Jon Tuck vs. Josh Emmett
Fight Odds: Tuck -145, Emmett +125
Odds to finish: -150
Salaries: Emmett 9.7k, Tuck 8.6k
Weight Class: 155
There are two parts to breaking down this fight between Jon Tuck and Josh Emmett. The first is that based on odds, Tuck is a supreme value and he’s worth targeting in both cash games and GPPs. I think that’s true to a sense, but I have a good read on Emmett and I’m not at all confident in Tuck’s chances to win.
Emmett is an undefeated Team Alpha Male product who will beat people in the UFC. He’s a good wrestler, he’s extremely strong and he has good kickboxing and cardio. His wrestling is good enough that if he wants to keep the fight standing, he’ll use it defensively, and if he wants to get the fight to the ground, he usually can.
I think Emmett will want to keep the fight standing against Tuck because Tuck is legit on the ground and poses the biggest threat there.
The second part is that Emmett took this fight on less than a weeks notice, and not only does he have to cut the weight in a short amount of time that he probably wasn’t prepared for, he also has to travel across the world. And he has to deal with any potential UFC jitters.
I would definitely pick Emmett to win if this fight was announced a month ago, but I’m not confident at all on 5 days notice. I can potentially see Emmett cracking Tuck and landing some heavy GNP for a finish, so I don’t hate targeting him in tournaments, but don’t go crazy on him. I also think Tuck is worth a play but it’s more based on the price and less on the fact that I love his upside and safety.
Fight Prediction: Emmett by Decision
Yan Cabral vs. Reza Madadi
Fight Odds: Cabral -175, Madadi +155
Odds to finish: +140
Salaries: Cabral 10.2k, Madadi 9.2k
Weight Class: 155
If I’m targeting this fight at all between Yan Cabral and Reza Madadi, I’ll be having a small share of Cabral in tournaments. This should be a grindy, grapply fight that likely ends in a decision and likely does not end in a first round finish. For the small chance that Cabral jumps on a quick sub, I’ll say that he’s viable, but I’m not in love with the play.
Madadi has a very limited floor and a +768 finish prop, so that equates to zero upside.
Fight Prediction: Cabral by Decision
Kyoji Horiguchi vs. Neil Seery
Fight Odds: Horiguchi -600, Seery +450
Odds to finish: +155
Salaries: Horiguchi 10.7k, Seery 8.7k
Weight Class: 125
Kyoji Horiguchi is the heaviest favorite on the card, and he’s priced below two fighters and close to many more. I think he’s a great option in cash games against Neil Seery for the price value alone, but I don’t expect him to have a ton of trouble in this bout.
Horiguchi is one of the best fighters in the division, and although I think Seery is a tough out, Horiguchi is on another technical level. He should have the striking advantage in part because he’s so much more difficult to hit, and I also think he’ll have a wrestling advantage.
I’m not super high on his upside because I respect the toughness of Seery, so I’m hesitant to pull the trigger in tournaments. I’m not a fan of targeting Seery at all in this fight, so I’ll stick to a fair amount of Horiguchi.
Fight Prediction: Horiguchi by Decision
Leon Edwards vs. Dominic Waters
Fight Odds: Edwards -265, Waters +225
Odds to finish: -150
Salaries: Edwards 10.9k, Waters 8.5k
Weight Class: 170
I know a few people will be on Dominic Waters in this fight against Leon Edwards, but I won’t be one. Even if Edwards wins a decision, which I think is his upside, I don’t think it will be a high scoring affair. His price is cheap obviously, and he has the path to win. Edwards isn’t the best wrestler and Waters can probably get the fight to the ground if he’s on his A game, but I don’t think he can do much from there and I don’t expect him to exceed 60 in a win.
For those reasons, I’ll be off Waters, but I definitely like Edwards as a tournament option. I think Edwards is also cash viable because he has the upside to finish and he’s a significant favorite, but he strikes at 2.17 per minute, and his floor is relatively low for that reason.
I don’t think Waters is on the same level on the feet as Edwards though, and I think Edwards will realize that quickly. I wouldnt’ be surprised to see him land early and push the action and secure a stoppage, so I definitely think he’s worth targeting in tournaments.
Fight Prediction: Edwards by TKO, RD 2
Ulka Sasaki vs. Willie Gates
Fight Odds: Gates -150, Sasaki +130
Odds to finish: -210
Salaries: Gates 9.6k, Sasaki 9.1k
Weight Class: 125
Ulka Sasaki and Willie Gates are a couple of super-talented fighters in one aspect of the MMA game, but they are very flawed on the whole and that makes for a great DFS matchup. In fact, this is probably my favorite fight to target in tournaments.
Sasaki is a legit submission grappler with first-round finishing upside, and he’s proven that in the UFC. He’s also a walking punching bag on the feet, and if he can’t get the fight to the ground early, there’s a good chance he’ll get KO’d.
Gates is a good striker for the flyweight division and he has knockout power and I expect him to light up Sasaki while fight plays out on the feet. He is, however, awful on the ground and if he gets taken down even once, that might be it.
Essentially, this fight comes down to whether Sasaki can get the fight to the ground, and I’m not confident enough in either side to plant my flag. I suggest having exposure to both in tournaments, and although I think Gates is viable in cash as well, he makes me a bit nervous because his floor is so low.
Fight Prediction: Sasaki by RNC, RD 1