UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Oleinik Quick Picks
Welcome back to another edition of the UFC Quick Picks!
We have a Saturday morning card in Russia this week, which is nice on occasion, and should go by quickly on the ESPN+ platform. There’s still more than $150K up for grabs and a few qualifier seats, so I’ve listed some of my favorite plays below to help you get started.
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Onto the fights!
Cash Game Plays
1. Alistair Overeem, 8.9k
When in doubt, target the Main Event in cash games, and Alistair Overeem is the favorite this week at -250 against Aleksei Oleinik, and priced up at 8.9k on DraftKings.
The problem is that if Overeem loses, it’s likely to come inside the distance and more likely inside the first two rounds, but on paper, this this a strong matchup for Overeem. Not only is he a high-level striker and a superior technician to Oleinik, he has a very capable submission grappling game as well.
In fact, Overeem has only been submitted once in 61 professional fights, by Fabricio Werdum in 2006. It will be a difficult task for Oleinik to take Overeem down and find a finish, and that’s generally his most likely path to victory. Of course anything can happen in the HW division, but over the course of five rounds, Overeem should be able to win the range exchanges and probably earn a finish.
At -250, with a -185 ITD and five rounds to work with, I think Overeem makes for a strong cash game play at 8.9k.
2. Rafael Fiziev, 7.7k
Not a must play, but targeting value is always at least worth considering and Rafael Fiziev is a clear value play at 7.7k.
Fiziev opened at +140 which is why he’s priced at 7.7k, but has been slowly bet up to a -125 favorite, meaning he holds approximately $500 of price value. In cash games, targeting value will give you an edge over the long term.
Fiziev is making his UFC debut though and that’s the risk, against Magomed Mustafaev who has not fought since 2016. Mustafaev is wild and explosive and there will be danger here, but Fiziev is a solid prospect, a technical muay-thai striker coming from a good camp.
I’m willing to consider the value this week with Fiziev at 7.7k in cash games.
Tournament Plays
1. Michal Oleksiejczuk, 8.8k
If I’m being honest, I think the value is actually against Michal Oleksiejczuk, as he currently stands as a -220 favorite against Ghadzimurad Antigulov. I consider this closer to a pick ‘em but what’s most important is the line for this fight to end inside the distance at -365.
Not only does the line support the fight ending in a finish, but Antigulov is generally a finish or be finished type of fighter. He is aggressive in landing early takedowns and is a capable submission grappler, but if he fails, he gasses out and generally gets knocked out.
So in theory, Antigulov will either win by submission and hit the optimal lineup at 7.4k, or he’ll gas and let Oleksiejczuk finish at 8.8k. The fight as a whole is a very strong tournament option for that reason, and as a -220 favorite with a -130 ITD line, I definitely think Oleksiejczuk is worth considering.
2. Movsar Evloev, 9.1k
He’s making his UFC debut here, which is the risk, but Movsar Evloev looks to be a high-level wrestler and grappler coming from the M1 organization in Russia.
That definitely peaks my interest from a fantasy perspective, but so does his stylistic matchup against the debuting Seungwoo Choi, who is a kickboxer from South Korea. There’s risk in the sense that while this fight stays standing, Choi will be at an advantage and could land damaging strikes.
But once the fight hits the mat, I expect Evloev to take over. At 9.1k, with a +100 ITD line, Evloev has enough grappling and finishing potential to target in tournaments, and he may come in as a sneaky under-owned option.
Fade of the Week
1. Antonina Shevchenko, 9.3k
Again this will come down to the price, I’m not opposed to the idea of Antonina Shevchenko finishing Roxanne Modafferi this weekend, but that’s her only chance to hit the optimal lineup.
She carries a poor ITD line of +330, far off from the +100 range of the other fighters at this price, who also have potential to grapple. I don’t expect Shevchenko to land in high volume or wrestle, so we really need that finish. The +330 line suggests it’s not the most likely outcome and I would rather pay for other options this weekend.