UFC Fight Night: Pettis vs. Moreno Quick Picks
Welcome to the UFC Mexico City Quick Picks! This is the only card in August, and honestly, I could use a break! We still get Mayweather vs. McGregor in late Aug. which I’m sure most of you are excited for, but I doubt DraftKings will cover that.
So it’s this card, and then we wait until early September, where things start picking back up again. It’s not the best card name wise, but there should be some fun fights.
If you want FULL BREAKDOWNS of every single fight on the card, projections, rankings and more, you can find that in the Premium Section here. We’ve also launched the Beta version of the MMA LINEUP BUILDER which you can access with my projections if you purchase the premium content.
Onto the fights!
Cash Game Plays
1. Jose Quinonez, $8,200
There’s not a lot to be confident in on this card, how can we be, most of these fighters have fought in the UFC two times or less, and Mexico City brings another level of variance with it’s extreme elevation which can gas out even the most in shape fighters.
So in these cases, I look toward value, if there is any. This week there is some value and the biggest discrepancy is with Jose Quinonez at 8.2k. Quinonez opened at +100 but was insta-bet up all the way to -245, and he’s settled around -230. For whatever reason DraftKings priced him as a even money fighter, which means he has significant odds value.
Quinonez is facing Diego Rivas, who is coming off a brutal KO victory over Noad Lahat. He can win like that again, but most likely Quinonez just out works him. Quinonez strikes at a high rate and constantly wrestles, and I think he can take advantage of Rivas’ sub par ground game. For the odds, along with my perception of this fight, he’s an easy cash game play.
2. Brandon Moreno, $8,500
Don’t mistake this as me comfortably picking Moreno to win this fight, I think he’s in a close contest with Sergio Pettis. But he’s the favorite for a reason, and I think he’s a strong cash play at 8.5k.
Moreno can strike, he throws with a lot of power, but he’s been especially good on the ground and that’s a potential weakness of Pettis. I expect Moreno to have early success with his wrestling, and that gives him a high floor, especially in a five round fight. Even if he loses, I think it’s highly likely that this fight goes the distance because Pettis isn’t a great finisher and has very poor odds to win ITD.
Pettis himself isn’t a bad cash play for the price, but I think Moreno has the higher floor and the odds back him up, so he’s my preferred play in cash games.
Tournament Plays
1. Jordan Rinaldi, $9,000
Again, there is not a lot to be comfortable with on this card, so we need to take some risks. One of those risks is Jordan Rinaldi for 9k flat. He’s only fought once, a short-notice bout with Abel Trujillo which he lost by decision.
But he showed some promise in that fight, good wrestling and grappling, and most importantly cardio. I think he has a significant advantage in those areas over Alvaro Herrera, and it gives him a clear path to a high score, even with a moderate finish prop of +200. The main concern is Herrera is coming down from 170, so he may be a bit bigger, and he also has KO power.
Trujillo has more KO power though, and Rinaldi escaped that, so I’m at least semi-confident Rinaldi can get through the early portion of this fight. If he does that, he should cruise to a win and hopefully a high score at a projected low ownership.
2. Rani Yahya, $8,900
The best part of this pick is that people will fade Rani Yahya because he looked bad in his last fight and gassed early. I totally understand it, now he’s fighting in Mexico and his cardio issues may be worse. There’s no reason to force him into lineups, especially as his odds dip.
But that will lower his ownership, and he still has very high upside, too high to ignore. He’s a world class grappler and facing a sub-par fighter in Henry Briones. If Yahya wins this fight, it’s almost certainly going to be through the takedown, and he has a strong chance to win by submission if it gets there. His ITD odds are +188 which are stronger than many fighters surrounding him.
Briones is a decent play on the flip side because if he can withstand the early shot from Yahya, he should have the cardio and striking advantages late and he may just beat Yahya up. It feels like that’s what people are expecting. But I think it’s mistake to completely overlook Yahya, and I suggest getting some exposure to him in tournaments.
Fade of the Week
1. Alexa Grasso, $8,300
There aren’t many fighters I’m dying to fade because so many of them are high variance and could pull off a finish. Even Alexa Grasso is in that category but I think the most likely outcome of her fight is a decision. And that’s enough to pull the “fade” card out.
She’s facing Randa Markos who is hittable, but she’s tough and will try and get the fight down. I don’t expect her to be super successful but she has a habit of making fights close. Grasso might pour the strikes on late but I doubt she gets many grappling points, and her odds to finish are +485. Not great.
She’s also a fairly big name in comparison to this card, so she may have a bit of exposure, in which case I will look to be extremely underweight to the field, and likely fade her altogether.