UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Gaethje Quick Picks
Coming off the crazy UFC 223 card that only yielded nine fights, we have a whopping 14-fight card with a lot of options to choose from. And it should be a violently fun card as well with Justin Gaethje and Dustin Poirier headlining.
As usual there is plenty of money to be won on DraftKings so hopefully these picks will give you a head start!
If you want FULL BREAKDOWNS of every single fight on the card, projections, rankings and more, you can find that in the Premium Section here. We’ve also launched the MMA LINEUP BUILDER which you can access with my projections if you purchase the premium content.
Onto the fights!
Cash Game Plays
1. Gilbert Burns, 9.4k
If you can afford to spend up this week, I think Gilbert Burns is the safest play on the card at 9.4k. That doesn’t mean he’s the lock of the century to score 120 points, but it means his overall floor is higher than nearly any other fighter.
He comes in as a -620 favorite against newcomer Dan Moret, and although Burns isn’t normally a fighter to trust, this feels like a good style matchup for him. Moret likes to pressure his opponents, get the fight on the ground and attack for chokes.
Unfortunately, Moret doesn’t have the most technical wrestling game in the world, nor does he have an elite striking game. And so his best skill set just happens to be where Burns is best, and Burns is a world-class submission grappler. So even if Moret can get the fight down early, which is still not super likely, I don’t think he’s a real threat to Burns.
And if Burns gets in top position, he should be able to rack up advances and hunt for a submission. If Burns chooses to keep the fight standing, he should still be able to earn the win.
I like Burns in cash game as he’s the safest play on the board with the highest combined floor and ceiling.
2. Krzysztof Jotko, 7.4k
One of the better value options on the board is Krzysztof Jotko at 7.4k, and targeting value is the ideal strategy for cash games.
Jotko is only +115 on the betting line but he’s priced seven hundred dollars off the mid-tier, meaning he’s simply too cheap. He and Brad Tavares should fight competitively and I’m not expecting extreme upside for either, but in a close matchup like this, I’d much rather pay down and get Jotko who has a reasonable chance to earn the win.
Most of the fighters priced below Jotko are +200 or worse, many are even +300 or worse, so Jotko is as cheap as you can get for a fighter with a clear chance to win this weekend, and I’ll look to pay that price tag in cash games.
Tournament Plays
1. Luke Sanders, 9.3k
A strong pivot off Burns at the top end, Luke Sanders has a strong chance to win his fight against Patrick Williams inside the distance.
Williams likes to blow his gas tank early in the fight chasing a knockout, and if he cannot get the finish, he gasses to the point of no return and gets finished himself. Sanders is coming off a knockout loss, but he has the far superior cardio and overall skill to hang in there early.
And so as long as he can avoid the knockout, I expect Williams to gas once again and Sanders to probably earn the finish. He even has an ITD prop of -161, which is extremely high for Sanders and indicates a proper amount of upside.
Sanders can strike at a high rate and can wrestle, so the path to 120 points is there, and I’m willing to take some chances on him in tournaments this weekend.
2. Antonio Carlos Junior, 9k
This may be a popular play but it’s hard not to go back to the well on Antonio Carlos Junior each and every time he fights, because the upside is there. Junior is a world-class submission grappler and so if he gets in top position, his potential to earn the finish is real.
He’ll be fighting Tim Boetsch who could definitely give him trouble, but it doesn’t take away from the upside of Junior. If Junior can land a takedown early, he can potentially earn that submission, simple as that. And for 9k, with the chance at a 1st round finish and an ITD line of +105, you can bet I’m willing to target him in tournaments.
Boetsch has been submitted four times in his career and has been knocked out four other times, so he definitely can be stopped. I’m hopeful Junior adds to that number this weekend.
Fade of the Week
1. Arjan Bhullar, 9.2k
As usual it makes me nervous to recommend a fade on this play, Arjan Bhullar is a HW and a wrestler, two things that could lead to a high score. But he’s shown almost zero ability to finish on the regional scene, I don’t believe he’s a strong submission grappler or ground-and-pound artist, and so his chances to finish are not extremely high.
He’s also not likely to land five or more takedowns with 10 advances, numbers we’d look for at his price of 9.2k. He could easily land a few takedowns, maybe score 90 points in a win but he’s in this tier with Burns, Sanders, Adesanya, Junior and more, and he’s going to need to outscore most of them.
I just don’t think the chances of that happening are high, so I’m going to stick to the other fighters in this tier and avoid Bhullar for the most part.