UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Pettis Quick Picks
Welcome to the UFC Norfolk Picks! There are so many great events left in the year and a lot of good opportunities to win some money. The main event this week, Dustin Poirier vs. Anthony Pettis, should be fantastic and it’s a nice overall setup card as we head toward UFC 218 in early December.
Onto the fights!
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Onto the fights!
CASH GAME PLAYS
1. Matt Brown, 9.4k
I’m generally not one to target fighters who are entering their retirement fight, but it’s hard to overlook Matt Brown in this matchup. He may be fading as an athlete, but his opponent Diego Sanchez has faded far worse.
Sanchez has notoriously been durable and tough but has been knockout out in two of his last three fights. He’s now stepping up to 170 pound to take on Brown, and he will be at a distinct size disadvantage. He’s also lost quite a bit of his speed, and so it seems fairly likely that he gets pieced up again en route to an early stoppage. That’s why Brown is as highly favored as he is, at -330 with an ITD line of -157.
I don’t think Brown is a must play, but I think he makes for a strong option to anchor your cash lineups.
2. Nina Ansaroff, 7.2k
I think the best punt option this week is Nina Ansaroff at 7.2k, she not only has a higher floor than everyone below her, but she has a legitimate chance to win. Her opponent is Angela Hill, who’s a good athlete and a good striker, but she rarely dominates fights. She’s also shown a weakness in her grappling game.
Hill is a large favorite at -190 and that always makes me nervous, Ansaroff is talented enough to give her trouble. Ansaroff trains with the best fighters in the world at ATT and has a high-output striking game and a developing grappling game. If she loses at 7.2k, I ‘m completely fine with that. But I think it’s likely she lands 70ish strikes in three rounds and potentially lands a takedown, so her floor is north of 30 points in a decision.
Paying up for Matt Brown and potentially other 9k fighters will cost a lot of salary, and you will need to save salary in other spots. I think Ansaroff is your best option, especially in cash games.
TOURNAMENT PLAYS
1. Junior Albini, 8.9k
One of many legends of the sport whose durability has faltered in recent fights, it’s hard to count on Andrei Arlovski anymore. He’s lost five fights consecutively and has been finished in four of those fights.
He certainly has the experience and technical factors over his new opponent Junior Albini, but it likely doesn’t matter. Arlovski can’t take a punch, and that’s why we see Albini as a huge -330 favorite, along with the best ITD on the card at -181. Albini wins in round one prop is also +125, the best on the card.
Albini will likely be popular but he has massive upside, and I think makes for a very strong tournament play.
2. Tatiana Suarez, 9.2k
Another expensive fighter, I think Tatiana Suarez has sneakily high upside for her price. Well, she may not be super sneaky but I doubt much of the public knows who she is or what she’s good at. She’s an elite technical wrestler and a two-time bronze medalist in the world championships of freestyle wrestling.
Her opponent Viviane Perreira has won two fights in a row, but I doubt she has the skills to defend takedowns against Suarez for three rounds. In Perreira’s debut, she was taken down and mounted by Valerie Letourneau. She’s also very small for the division.
Suarez is a physical athlete for this division and most importantly, if she wins, it’s going to come through a grappling heavy gameplan. That means takedowns, passes and potentially a submission. Even if Perreira can get back to her feet, Suarez is still going to have to take the fight down to win, so she could get several rinse and repeat takedowns.
Again, we are targeting the potential here. There’s been enough promise with Perreira that maybe she can steal the win. But IF Suarez wins, I think she meets or exceeds value and makes for a very strong tournament play.
FADE OF THE WEEK
1. Raphael Assuncao, 9.2k
I’ve written up Raphael Assuncao several times in this Fade of the Week section, and he’s never let me down. He hasn’t scored 100 or more points in any of his last six fights, and that’s why I don’t target him even in strong matchups like this one.
Assuncao doesn’t strike at a super high rate and he doesn’t wrestle at a high rate, so he needs an early finish to pay off the price tag. Even if he does score 100 points with a finish, he won’t kill you. Fighters like Brown, Albini and Suarez are also priced highly, and there’s a strong chance one of them beats the score of Assuncao anyways.
He will be fighting Matthew Lopez this week, a decent prospect but someone who will want the fight on the ground. I think Assuncao can play the role of counter striker, defend the takedowns, and earn a decision win. But his upside and consistency from a fantasy perspective aren’t high enough for me to invest in him at 9.2k.