UFC Fight Night Preview: Makhachev vs. Green Odds, Picks and Prediction
MMA betting analyst Liam Heslin previews UFC Vegas 271 odds and breaks down everything you need to know to make your Adesanya vs. Whittaker picks.
When news surfaced that Beniel Dariush needed to pull out of his showdown with divisional boogey man Islam Makhachev, it was a very real possibility that this main event could fall through. Makhachev has had a difficult time booking fights against other ranked lightweight contenders, so the prospect of taking a fight with him in a five-round main event on two weeks notice is not most fighters’ idea of a good time. Enter Bobby “King” Green, fresh off of a career-best drubbing of Nasrat Haqparast earlier this month at UFC 271, who has decided he will step back into the octagon to fight Islam fourteen days after exiting the octagon in Houston. Bobby Green has been fighting with the UFC since February of 2013, so he will celebrate nine years with the company by ascending to his first main event billing.
The difficulty for Green is that he will be squared off against one of the most feared and respected competitors in the division, riding a 9 fight win streak that dates to 2016, and a career record of 21 wins and 1 loss. Oddsmakers and market forces have reflected the uphill battle in front of Bobby Green. Green opened a significant +350 (22.2%) underdog for this contest on offshore markets, with most US domestics opening Green +500 (16.7%) and above. Currently, the market average has Bobby Green a consensus +600 (14.3%) underdog, with the best available price resting at +700 (12.5%) on Bet365. Islam Makhachev on the other hand opened a significant -450 (81.8%) favorite before quickly shooting up to the prohibitive market average of -914 (90.1%), with the best remaining price at -835 (89.3%) on BetRivers and Unibet.
Islam Makhachev is familiar with his role as the betting favorite; through 11 UFC fights, he is 10-1 as a betting favorite, never having closed as an underdog. If you flat bet Islam on the money line in every UFC bout, you would have returned 22% ROI at an average odds of -287 (74.2%). Bobby Green on the other hand has been an underdog in 11 of his 17 UFC bouts. He emerged in the UFC by defeating Jacob Volkman in his octagon debut as a +363 (21.6%) underdog. Since his debut fight, Bobby has been an underdog in 10 UFC appearances, with a record of 4 wins and 6 losses (40% win rate) for a 14.5% ROI as an underdog. Green has actually been a much more reliable bet as a favorite, where he has accrued a record of 5 wins and 1 loss as a favorite for an 83% win rate and a 28.9% ROI (at an average odds of -199). Bobby Green’s overall UFC record (baring the Volkman fight) sits at 9-7 (56% win rate). He has gone off at an average odds of +109 (47.9%), returning his money line backers a 19.9% ROI since 2013. Both fighters have outperformed their odds range and their overall money line price in the UFC. Bobby Green has an expected win rate of 47.9% and an actual win rate of 56% (an 8.1% money line discount). Islam Makhachev has an expected win rate of 74.2%, but he has an actual win rate of 83% (8.8% money line discount). This means both fighters have been somewhat underrated by the market at times.
For Bobby Green, this fight represents an opportunity to make good on a nine-year UFC run by defeating a class of opponents he has yet to get on his resume through 42 professional bouts. Green has fought an absolute who’s who of the lightweight division, but he has never been able to break through with a signature win. To date, his best career wins include an overwhelming first round knockout that sent Al Iaquinta into retirement (November 2021 at UFC 268), a unanimous decision victory over Clay Guida in in 2020, a second-round submission of Daron Cruicksank in King of the Cage in 2010, and a split decision win over Josh Thompson in 2014. Otherwise, Green has beaten a largely middling crop of UFC fighters (Alan Patrick, Lando Vanatta, Nasrat Haqparast) while losing in entertaining and often competitive fashion to elite from the division like Dustin Poirier (Loss via KO1) and Rafael Fiziev (Lost via UDEC). If Green was to somehow win this fight, it would be his best win in MMA bar none, head in shoulders in fact above any other win he is yet to secure. It is for that reason the odds are so long on Bobby Green to emerge victorious on Saturday night.
Islam Makhachev has not had an easy run through the organization, but he has also not been tested by the division’s elite to this point. His hardest bout in the UFC was likely his bout with Arman Tsarukyan (17-2) a Armenian-Russian wrestling product with a dynamic game and explosive scrambles. Tsarukyan accepted the bout on short notice and performed admirably, offering strong resistance, but ultimately failing to best Islam for any significant portion of time. Since that fight, Makhachev has rattled off impressive wins over Thiago Moises (win via SUB4), Drew Dober (win via SUB3), and Dan Hooker (win via SUB1). Moises is a common opponent between the two fighters, and Green lost a narrow decision to Moises in a largely striking based affair. Makhachev has also proved that he can go fifteen hard minutes, besting solid grapplers Chris Wade and Davi Ramos in competitive fights that went to unanimous decisions in favor of Islam. Bobby Green is actually a lateral step in terms of competition for Islam, as he has been competing with top fifteen potential fighters in each of his last three bouts. Bobby Green has been historically underrated, but is thankfully getting his just due right in time for a main event showcase.
For me, this is a fight that will be won or lost on the ground, because Makhachev is insistent on closing distance (60+ % time spent grappling/clinching), and he is a smothering presence on top and in the clinch. I understand the significant favorite distinction on Islam Makhachev because he is an elite fighter with a well rounded skill set, he has most of the finishing upside in the matchup, and he is the fighter who was preparing for this showcase with a full camp. Bobby Green on the other hand fought for fifteen minutes fourteen days ago. Despite the fact that he won the fight soundly, I would have to think that as a thirty-five year old accepting a fight on short notice, the fifteen hard minutes you just went through can’t improve your physical preparedness. There is also reason to believe (social media posts) that Bobby Green may have been drinking and partying in the wake of his victory, only to quickly turn around, cut weight, and try to optimize himself for a five-round opportunity. Even for a fighter as magnificent as Bobby Green, I think he is trying to swim upstream into a current too strong. Islam Makhachev is one of the best fighters on planet earth, and I believe he proves so again on Saturday night.
Prediction:
Islam Makhachev defeats Bobby Green via SUB4 (Rear Naked Choke)
The Bet:
Over 1.5 Rounds @-175 on BetWay
● Green is a tough, positionally sound grappler. I think eventually the pace, pressure, and cardio overwhelms Bobby, but I think he is here to fight and will give an honest account of himself for at least 7.5 minutes before being finished. Given the trend of main event fights going to decision (aside from last week) I think this is a great spot at a discount.
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