UFC Fight Night: Rivera vs. Moraes Quick Picks
Welcome to another edition of the UFC Quick Picks! We had a super fast turnaround here with a card last Sunday and a card on Friday this week, but the more MMA the better.
Next week is one of the best cards of the year in UFC 225, I personally can’t wait for that and to see the prize pools. For now, it’s UFC Utica which is actually a solid event with some fun fighters.
If you want FULL BREAKDOWNS of every single fight on the card, projections, rankings and more, you can find that in the Premium Section here. We’ve also launched the MMA LINEUP BUILDER which you can access with my projections if you purchase the premium content.
Onto the fights!
Cash Game Plays
1. Gregor Gillespie, $9,500
The top overall play on the slate is also the top priced fighter on the slate, but Gregor Gillespie is still someone I would like to pay up for at 9.5k. We say it all the time with these wrestlers like Tatiana Suarez, Colby Covington etc., wrestlers just make for the best DraftKings plays.
Gillespie is a D1 National Champion level wrestler and he’s already landed nine takedowns in four fights, averaging nearly 5.5 per 15 minutes. He’s relentless, he’ll shoot for 12 takedowns in a single round if you let him, and I love to see that aggression and cardio from fighters.
Plus when he gets in top position, he’s been able to advance and work for submissions, which has led to him scoring 100 points or more in all four fights. He’s topped 125 points on two of those four occasions as well.
His matchup with Vinc Pichel is a step up, but I feel that unless Pichel can knock him out, Gillespie will rack up those takedowns and advances and put up a high score. He’s a -380 favorite with a +100 line to win ITD, and those numbers combined with the ability to wrestle and grapple at a high place make him an essential lock for me in cash games.
2. David Teymur, $9,100
There’s no clear must-have outside of Gillespie on this slate, obviously the main event is a good place to start but one of my other favorite options is David Teymur who is priced at 9.1k.
Teymur is fighting Nik Lentz, so the dynamic in this matchup is very clear. Teymur is far and away the better striker, he lands in volume and has five inches of reach over Lentz. If this fight stays standing he should pick Lentz apart.
Lentz can try to work for takedowns but Teymur has shown an excellent ability to defend and/or scramble back to his feet. I think he’ll have success defending takedowns in this spot and will make Lentz pay in the clinch. If he can secure the win, he’ll certainly land enough significant strikes to put up a comfortable total.
I’m slightly concerned about Teymur being able to finish Lentz, and his ITD line is +281 which doesn’t jump out as super strong. But for cash games I’ll take the -290 favorite with a high-volume of significant strikes and be comfortable getting 80 points in a win.
Tournament Plays
1. Walt Harris, $9,300
One of the top tournaments option on the slate is Walt Harris, and although there’s always risk with heavyweight fights, Harris has clear potential to win ITD.
It didn’t work out so well with Spicely last week, but we’re targeting upside here, not the plays who are most likely to win. We want finishes, we want a high number of points in a win. There’s a path for this fight to be a stinker but there’s also a path for Harris to knock his opponent out in the first round.
He’ll be fighting Daniel Spitz, who is coming off a win against Anthony Hamilton, and I haven’t been impressed with what I’ve seen so far. He’s long and lengthy but not very technical or physical.
Harris has an ITD line of -155 which is the best on the card and his prop to win in round one is +125, also the best prop on the card. For 9.3k, if you can’t afford to pay up for Gillespie, Harris makes for an excellent tournament option in the top tier and someone I definitely want to have exposure to.
2. Jake Ellenberger, $8,600
It must be said from the start that I like both sides of his fight with Ben Saunders in tournaments, mostly because it’s very likely to end inside the distance. The prop on this fight finishing is -300, which is crazy high for a non-HW matchup.
Both Ellenberger and Saunders have major chin issues, both have been knocked out plenty of times and it doesn’t seem like either can take much punishment. So the general thought here is someone is going to get knocked out.
I lean with Ellenberger because he’s more athletic and has more power, and he can also wrestle if he wants. I am worried about him being tentative, but I think he’s more likely to hit Saunders hard early than vice versa. For 8.6k, with an ITD line of -105, I will absolutely target Ellenberger this weekend.
Fade of the Week
1. Belal Muhammad, $9,400
As always I try to pick someone expensive for this section, and of course I’m never comfortable fading a near -400 favorite. But the problem is his price tag of 9.4k, he’s priced between Gregor Gillespie and Walt Harris, two clear better options on this particular slate.
I expect Muhammad to win but he’s facing a durable newcomer in Chance Rencountre, and someone who I’m not convinced will just get blown over in the first round. Muhammad has an ITD line of +281, which for the price is not good. Daniel Teymur has a similar ITD line and he’s 7.4k, as does Ben Saunders for 7.6k.
So if Muhammad doesn’t finish, if he doesn’t land five takedowns, it’s just going to be hard to pay off the price. The only reason to play him is 1) In cash games if you can afford him with Gillespie or 2) If you want a low-owned option in large-field tournaments.
I respect both of those routes but I like lots of guys in the top range and so my exposure to Muhammad will be limited at best.