UFC Fight Night: Rockhold vs. Branch Quick Picks
Welcome to the UFC Pittsburgh Quick Picks! We don’t have the best prize pools or title fights, but there are actually several fun fights on this card, and it’s on FREE TV! And as always there’s still money to be made on DraftKings, so let’s go get it.
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Onto the fights!
Cash Game Plays
1. Kamaru Usman, $9,200
The top tier is filled with solid plays this week, starting with Gregor Gillespie at 9.4, and including Luke Rockhold at 9.3 and Kamaru Usman at 9.2k. It’s hard to go wrong here but my pick from the bunch is Usman in cash.
Usman is the heaviest favorite on the card, currently at -800, so he has significant odds value compared to the other two. He has a high level of wrestling pedigree and has clearly improved on the feet. The concern with him is maybe he won’t need to wrestle in this spot, taking on a talented submission grappler in Sergio Moraes, but I think Usman has the advantages wherever the fight goes.
I don’t think Usman will be afraid to wrestle but it’s always nice putting your money on fighters who have the ability to put the fight where they want. There’s safety in that, and Usman is one of the safest plays on the card.
2. Mike Perry, $8,500
I’m not the biggest fan of Mike Perry, and to be quite honest I think his original opponent Thiago Alves would have given him trouble, but Alves pulled out and Perry got a new opponent on three days notice.
That opponent Alex Reyes is a true 155er, instead of 170 lbs. where the fight will be taking place, and I haven’t seen anything on tape to tell me he can beat Perry in this spot. But the price on DraftKings didn’t change, even though Perry’s odds moved from -140 to -470. That means he has significant odds value, and he’s hard to pass up, especially in cash games.
I don’t think Perry is a true lock for a quick knockout, and he will have high ownership, so he makes for an interesting tournament fade, however his price is too cheap compared to his odds to win, and that makes him an obvious cash game play.
Tournament Plays
1. Gregor Gillespie, $9,400
As I mentioned before, the top tier is filled with strong plays, with Usman being the safest and then likely Luke Rockhold. At the top is Gregor Gillespie, and based on who is below him, I don’t think Gillespie will field a high ownership percentage.
But unlike the other two, Gillespie needs to wrestle to win this fight, at least in theory. And Gillespie is a relentless wrestler who can land 10 takedowns if needed, and that gives him truly higher upside than anyone else on the card. For his ownership and price, I think he’s a very strong tournament play and I think people will have trouble spending the extra bucks to reach him.
Usman and Rockhold are fine tournament plays as well, but Gillespie is my favorite of the bunch at 9.4k because he has that grappling upside we need, and his odds to finish overall are still strong at -112.
2. Anthony Hamilton, $8,800
If you’ve been playing Daily Fantasy MMA for a while, you’ve probably been burned by Anthony Hamilton. He was an all-in type play by most people in the industry in his last fight, against a smaller, jiu-jitsu fighter making his debut on short notice. But Hamilton, the wrestler, decided to test his striking and paid for it, getting knocked out in the first round.
That’s enough for many people to avoid playing Hamilton ever again, trust me I hate the play. But he gets another opponent who is pretty awful in Daniel Spitz, and I think it’s smart to go back to the well in some regard.
Hamilton is likely better everywhere, certainly as a wrestler and probably as a striker. He can still lose in a similar fashion, but I think odds are on his side. With people scared to play him, I will be targeting him in tournaments at 8.8k, with an ITD line of +105, and I suggest getting some exposure as well.
Fade of the Week
1. Krzysztof Jotko, $8,900
There are a lot of strong plays at the top tier, and not much underdog value this week, but it’s tough to play EVERYONE priced above the mid range. My least favorite play is probably Krzysztof Jotko at 8.9k. There’s nothing terribly wrong with him, I just think he has less upside than many others surrounding him.
Jotko is facing Uriah Hall who gives up a lot of pressure and wrestling, as well as volume striking. It’s a good matchup for Jotko, but his odds to finish aren’t likely. Vegas currently lists them at +450, which is bad. Even Hall himself has a much better line at +319.
So without the finish we are counting on lots of wrestling, and I’m just not willing to invest much in Jotko hoping he becomes an elite wrestler. He’s the odd man out this week.