UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. Caceres Quick Picks
I’m sure most of you are anxiously awaiting UFC 202 in two weeks, starring Conor McGregor and Nate Diaz, and I’m positive everyone reading this is excited to see McGregor make easy work of Diaz (joking….or am I?).
Until then, we get a tasty fight card that features plenty of exciting fights and a fantastic card to play on DraftKings. The pricing gods had some laughs this week and basically threw darts at each fighter to determine their value. Nearly every fighter is mis-priced, some are minor and some are major. I strongly suggest looking at the betting lines in comparison to the pricing before finalizing your teams.
There are also several newcomers on this card and many more inexperienced fighters, so there aren’t a lot of locks to rely on. I didn’t have time to run through a full breakdown of each fight, so I’m rolling out a throwback-style article that features some of my favorite cash plays, tournament plays and my fade of the week.
If you want more analysis, be on the look out for an episode of The Daily Fantasy MMA Podcast that should air Thursday night, and follow me on Twitter at BrettAppley and at DailyFanMMA for the latest content.
Cash Game Plays
1. Yair Rodriguez, $10,500
Regardless of the pricing, I like to find safety in main events, and this week, I think Yair Rodriguez is a good place to start. He’s fighting Alex Caceres in the main event, and while I’m not expecting this to be a one-sided beatdown, I think the combination of Rodriguez’ output and price make him a solid play.
He’s currently listed as a -325 favorite with a wins inside distance prop of -120, and he’s the second heaviest favorite on the card. On DraftKings, his price of 10.5k is the fifth highest, meaning he has significant price value. Add in the fact that he has a relative floor of five rounds and is very unlikely to get finished, and you have yourself an easy cash game target.
Of course, I expect him to be extremely popular, and if he was priced above 11k, I don’t think he’d have the same value. Caceres is a live dog in this fight in my opinion, and Rodriguez is still extremely raw and fights without any noticeable process. That doesn’t concern me for cash games, though, and I don’t want to miss out on a potential 100 points when 80 percent of the field is on him.
2. Cub Swanson, $10,300
I’ll be honest, I wasn’t planning on rostering a whole lot of Cub Swanson this week, but at 10.3k, I can’t ignore him in cash games. What I don’t love about Swanson is his matchup with Tatsuya Kawajiri, not in the sense that he’s unlikely to win, but in the sense that Kawajiri is a grinding opponent and his only goal in life is to take dudes down and lay on them. Often times he’s very frustrating, and he’s talented enough to make his game work at a high level, even at age 38.
What I love about Swanson this week are his Vegas odds (don’t roll your eyes). He’s currently the heaviest favorite on the card at -400 with a finish prop of + 134. I’m not necessarily expecting a finish, but at his price, we don’t need a finish. If Swanson was 11.5k I wouldn’t be touching him because you really need 100+ points at that price, but in the low 10k range, especially on a card with the screwy pricing, I’m completely fine with a decision win.
If you really want guys with HUGE upside in cash, taking Swanson won’t limit you. There’s little to no reason to avoid rostering the biggest favorite in cash.
Tournament Plays
1. Joseph Gigliotti, $9,300
Before salaries were released, Joseph Gigliotti was already going to be one of my favorite tournament options. He’s making his UFC debut with a 7-0 record and seven finishes, and he’s taking on veteran Trevor Smith, who’s well past his days of domination (if those days ever existed).
Gigliotti is a moderately interesting prospect and I’m curious how he’ll fare in the UFC, I think he has potential to be a contender down the line, but at age 22, he obviously has room to grow. Gigliotti is a short stocky wrestler with powerful hands, and he’s likely to strike until he feels the fight is better served on the ground.
He’s not a technical striker, throwing mostly power hooks, but I’m OK with that. He’s a risk obviously, but if he lands those hands on Smith, I think he’s got a good chance to win by knockout. Smith has been knocked out in four of his six losses, and there’s no reason to suggest his chin is getting any better. I do think Gigliotti could take the fight to the ground if needed, but I’m not completely sure of what gameplan he’ll come in with.
The best part, Gigliotti is a -135 favorite with a finish prop of + 105, and he’s only priced at 9.3k. As a newcomer, I don’t think he’ll be super highly owned, so I plan to take advantage of the pricing and roster him a whole lot this weekend. Fighting in Salt Lake City, it wouldn’t shock me to see him gas and lose to an experienced guy like Smith in his debut, but all I’m looking for in tournaments is that 120 point upside, and I believe Gigliotti has that.
2. Marcin Tybura, $9,500
Last week, the sole heavyweight fight was Anthony Hamilton vs. Damien Grabowski, and many people faded it because they thought it would be a slow grinding decision. I thought that was crazy and I made it known prior to the fight, as it was the third most likely fight to end in a finish, and it was a friggen heavyweight fight! We’ve seen what happens when two 265 lb. dudes collide. Sure there’s a chance for it to go to decision but there’s too much upside to completely pass on in my opinion.
I see a similar phenomenon taking place this weekend with Marcin Tybura vs. Viktor Pesta. This fight isn’t as likely to end quickly as most heavyweight fights, as both guys are grinders and much more submission based. Still, the fight is -190 to end in a finish, and I think Tybura makes for an excellent tournament target.
Tybura is a pretty high-level submission grappler for the heavyweight division, and if he can get in top control on Pesta, I think he can secure a submission. Pesta is coming off a knockout to Derrick Lewis, so we know his chin isn’t granite, and it wouldn’t shock me to see Tybura get a TKO either.
Tybura is currently sitting as a -150 favorite and he’s only priced at 9.5k. I understand if you want to fade this fight because you personally see it as slow and grinding to a decision, but I think Tybura is worth a few shots, especially at the price tag.
Fade of the Week
1. Zak Cummings, $10,000
At this point, you know I love my hot takes, and this week, my hot take is to fade Zak Cummings. I have a few reasons behind my madness.
First of all, I expect Cummings to be relatively popular. Not as popular as Francis Ngannou persay, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see him garner a 20 percent ownership. People like Cummings after his last win and I respect that, and I’ve already heard a lot of chatter about betting him as an underdog against Santiago Ponzinibbio.
Cummings is currently a + 130 underdog, but he’s overpriced at 10k. To make matters worse for Cummings from a DraftKings perspective, his odds to finish are + 443, which means he’s one of the least likely fighters to finish on the card.
Sure, Cummings has some pop in his punches but he’s a submission grappler, which mean’s his floor is low in general. Unless he gets a quick submission, which Vegas says is very unlikely, he won’t be on winning lineups. In a decision win, which is plausible, I don’t think he’ll score enough points to make him worth rostering in tournaments. Especially if he’s going to be popular, there’s no reason for me to play him.
Other Notes
— Teruto Ishihara is one of my favorite plays in a vacuum, but it’s hard to pay that price on him. With all the pricing errors, I think it’s fine to pay up for him if you want, but you will need 100+ points and I’m not sure it’s worth it. It may be sad, but fading Ishihara sounds like a smart strategy this week. I’ll probably have a shot or two on him, but not much more.
— Maryna Moroz is another solid target. I think I’ve exposed the fact that she’s not an elite fighter but she is aggressive and can finish fights. She’s fighting a newcomer who is so tiny. Moroz will have a seven inch height advantage which is pretty massive. I don’t think a quick finish is out of the question for Moroz, so keep your eye on her this weekend.
— One of my favorite fights to target in tournaments is Justin Ledet vs. Chase Sherman but I have 0 clue who is going to win. The fight is extremely likely to finish, and neither fight is high-level. Ledet is the favorite and is cheaper than Sherman so I’m going to lean to him, but I think you should have exposure to both this weekend.