UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Anders Quick Picks
Welcome to another edition of the UFC Quick Picks!
We are just two weeks away from UFC 229 that features Conor McGregor vs. Khabib Nurmagomedov, and DraftKings has already announced their biggest GPP ever which features 100K to the winner! I am so stoked for that.
This week is not the best or most exciting card, but there is money to be won and that’s why we are here. I’ve listed some of my favorite plays below to help you get started.
If you want FULL BREAKDOWNS of every single fight on the card, projections, rankings and more, you can find that in the Premium Section here. We’ve also launched the MMA LINEUP BUILDER which you can access with my projections if you purchase the premium content.
Onto the fights!
Cash Game Plays
1. Livinha Souza, 9.6k
There are several strong options at the top but it’s hard to argue against Livinha Souza being the top overall play at 9.6k.
She’s a massive -1100 favorite and is a grappling-based fighter, who will look to takedown and submit her opponent Alex Chambers. Her ITD line is -208 so the upside is there as well, and based on the betting line and her grappling metrics, Souza has the highest floor on the slate.
Even if the fight stays standing, Souza should have a striking advantage over Chambers, so her path to a loss seems extremely limited. Maybe she doesn’t score the most points on the slate, but she’s certainly the most likely to earn a victory and in cash games, I’ll take that every time.
2. Thiago Santos, 8.6k
The Main Event is always a strong cash game target and the favorite this week is Thiago Santos at 8.6k against Eryk Anders.
I wouldn’t consider Santos a lock to win, but he’s -150 on the betting line and has an ITD line of -119. Anders has appeared a bit tentative to close distance in recent fights, and if he can’t do that against Santos, he will get picked apart at kicking range.
The fight will start out at the range which Santos desires, and I expect him to be winning this fight until the moment Anders can effectively close the distance. There’s definitely merit to stacking this fight in cash games but if I am picking just one fighter from this Main Event, it’s going to be Santos.
Tournament Plays
1. Charles Oliveira, 9.4k
I expect him to be a popular tournament target this week, but Charles Oliveira makes for a very strong play at 9.4k.
Oliveira is a dangerous submission grappler and has the ability to takedown his opponent, advance position and find a finish within the first round. There are very few fighters on this slate with similar upside, and that’s all we are looking for in tournaments.
Oliveira has an ITD line of -247 and is a -400 favorite on the betting line against Christos Giagos, if he can earn the victory he’s very likely to put up a score that finds its way onto the optimal lineup. On a slate with many strong GPP options, there’s no arguing Oliveira has as much upside as anyone on the slate.
2. Augusto Sakai, 8.8k
He’s not an overwhelming must-play, but Augusto Sakai is a very strong tournament option if you can’t afford to pay up to the top tier this week.
He’s only 8.8k and is fighting Chase Sherman at Heavyweight, who is notorious for taking lots of damage and has been hurt badly in consecutive fights. Sakai is making his UFC debut here, there is some risk and he’s not a guarantee to finish. But he’s also capable of hurting and finishing Sherman in the early rounds, and that’s more than enough to put him on the optimal lineup.
Sakai’s ITD line is +104 which is very reasonable for his price. Again, there are plenty of solid options this week, but I do think Sakai is someone worth consideration in the upper middle tier.
Fade of the Week
1. Sam Alvey, 9.2k
He’s not exactly a “Fade” for me but I’m always cautious about targeting Sam Alvey at a high price, and he’s 9.2k this week. Based on his limited offensive attack, and regardless of the opponent, Alvey needs a quick knockout to end up on the optimal lineup.
A third round KO won’t get it done, a decision win won’t get it done. And even if he wins by KO and scores 105 points, there are so many strong options in his pricing range that he still might be pushed off the optimal lineup.
I do think Alvey is live of a KO and his metrics are fairly strong, but there are simply too many strong plays this week at the top for me to make a heavy investment on a super boom or bust option in Alvey. I’d rather pay down a bit or pay up and get more safety, so that’s why Alvey isn’t one of my favorite plays this week.