UFC Fight Night: Shogun vs. Smith Quick Picks
Welcome to another edition of the UFC Quick Picks!
We have a Sunday Funday card this week, nothing like waking up to an event with half the fighters on it making their UFC debut. It’s going to be a high-variance slate for that reason, but there’s still plenty of money to be won on DraftKings and that’s why we are here.
If you want FULL BREAKDOWNS of every single fight on the card, projections, rankings and more, you can find that in the Premium Section here. We’ve also launched the MMA LINEUP BUILDER which you can access with my projections if you purchase the premium content.
Onto the fights!
Cash Game Plays
1. Anthony Smith, 8.7k
It’s not that I love the game of Anthony Smith, it’s not that I’m overwhelmingly confident in him beating Shogun Rua, but I think it makes sense to play Smith in cash games at 8.7k.
Obviously the most important factor here is that Smith is the Main Event favorite and lined in Vegas at -210, so even if he has a poor fight and wins a decision, he’ll put up a strong score. He only lands at 3.15 sig. strikes per minute and doesn’t wrestle much, but his price is very fair.
Plus, there’s a strong chance Smith wins ITD with a line of -130, so his upside is great for the price as well. Overall I think Smith makes sense as a cash game staple for this card.
2. Bartosz Fabinski, 7.8k
Another popular target will be Bartosz Fabinski, but putting his ownership aside, I think he’s a great cash game option at 7.8k. Fabinski only knows one thing, which is marching forward, pressing his opponent against the cage and landing takedowns.
He will press this game plan for a full 15 minutes, and it’s led to him landing 16 takedowns with 16 advances in two combined UFC fights. That means in a decision, he’s very likely to score 100 points, just from the wrestling.
Fabinski is facing Emil Meek, who has given up takedowns to both his UFC opponents and likely will give up takedowns here as well. Fabinski is actually the underdog, he hasn’t fought for a couple years and this isn’t a lock spot, but the potential in cash games is too much to pass up.
Tournament Plays
1. Manny Bermudez, 9.1k
If we’re looking for upside, I think Manny Bermudez is a strong target at 9.1k. He’s a legit submission grappler, many of his wins come inside the first round and his overall game is limited.
While that can be a bit scary, it’s good that we know his focus, which is putting himself in position to find a choke. His opponent Davey Grant has been submitted twice in the UFC and has a tendency to grapple in spots he shouldn’t. I wouldn’t be shocked to see Bermudez lock up a submission early.
His metrics line up as well, he’s one of the biggest favorites on the card at -280 and his ITD line is +100. Plus, Bermudez will likely try and get the fight to the ground where he can advance position, so he fights with a style that is set up to score well on DraftKings.
There’s no guarantee he can pull it off, but an early submission from Bermudez is a realistic possibility and one that would put him in contention for the optimal lineup.
2. Glover Teixeira, 8.6k
I like this fight on both sides, but there’s no arguing Glover Teixeira has major upside this weekend against Corey Anderson.
For what Anderson does bring to the table, his chin has failed him time and time again, and he will have to work hard to avoid the power shots from Teixeira. At 8.6k, with potential to win ITD at +105, I’m absolutely willing to take chances on Teixeira.
And on the flip side, if Teixeira can’t get the job done inside the distance, Anderson likely lands takedowns en route to a decision victory, making this fight a strong target overall.
Teixeira is still my preferred play and someone with clear upside at 8.6k.
Fade of the Week
1. Nick Hein, 8.5k
I’ve heard some people talk Hein up because he’s facing Damir Hadzovic who has failed to stop takedowns in multiple UFC fights, but this is a different matchup to me. Hein is capable of wrestling, but he averages less than one takedown per 15 minutes and I can’t expect him to 5x that average.
Plus, his ITD line is super poor at +465 and he lands at an extremely low rate on the feet. In six UFC fights, Hein has never scored more than 71 points.
Of course it’s possible he puts up a big number, but there are plenty of solid options this week and really no reason for me to put a big investment in Hein at 8.5k.