UFC Fight Night: Silva vs. Bisping Beat Down
Below is my full fight card analysis for UFC London. Enjoy the fights!
MAIN CARD
Anderson Silva vs. Michael Bisping
Fight Odds: Silva -310, Bisping +255
Odds to finish: -180
Salaries: Silva 10.8k, Bisping 8.6k
Weight Class: 185
It’s quite difficult for me to separate my bias from my analysis on this fight, and I’ll say upfront that I’m #TeamBisping all the way here. I really enjoy watching Bisping fight and talk for that matter, and Silva’s PED suspension turned me off to him completely.
If you’re picking Anderson Silva… You think that Silva is still in or close to his prime self. His striking, his power, his technique, his cardio weren’t affected by his age and PED use, and he’s still a powerhouse MMA fighter.
Furthermore, you just simply think Michael Bisping doesn’t have the talent to beat a guy like Silva. Bisping is easy to hit and easy to hurt, and it’s only a matter of time until Silva lands a sharp shot and puts Bisping away.
If you’re picking Michael Bisping… You don’t think Silva is the same fighter that he was during his undefeated stretch, and while he’s still a very talented striker, his aura is diminished. Michael Bisping has always been a top tier fighter and he works extremely hard, his cardio is elite, and this is the perfect time for him to fight Silva.
Yes, you’re aware that Bisping is easy to hit and that there’s a decent chance Silva could catch him with a hard strike and put him away. BUT, there’s also a chance that Bisping makes it into the third round. If that’s the case, this fight is anyone’s for the taking.
Bisping strikes at a much higher volume than Silva and he’ll be able to pressure and wear Silva down as the fight progresses. It will probably be a close fight either way, but with a hometown crowd behind him, Bisping has a legitimate shot to take this on the score cards.
DFS Analysis… I’ve heard people reccomend taking a flyer on a solo Silva or Bisping in cash games, but I don’t really understand that. I think there’s a very reasonable chance that Bisping can take this fight deep, and if that’s the case, he’ll put up a big score even in a loss. I think he’s probably safer for that reason than Silva, as his price tag is bottom-barrel.
Of course I like Silva in all formats because he’s likely to win (ableit not a sure thing) and he still has the upside of a first-round knockout. I personally recommend stacking this fight in cash games and letting others pick incorrectly.
In tournaments, you probably need one of the two, and I’m slightly leaning toward Bisping. Even though he’s unlikely to finish, he can put up 40 points in a loss or 90-100 points in a decision win. If Silva doesn’t land a KO in the first or second round, he won’t pay off the price, he’s too singular of a striker.
Plus, I expect HUGE levels of ownership on Silva. If he’s 70% owned in tournaments or something crazy like that, I absolutely love the fade.
Fight Prediction: Bisping by Decision #YOLO #TeamBisping
Gegard Mousasi vs. Thales Leites
Fight Odds: Mousasi -325, Leites +265
Odds to finish: +135
Salaries: Mousasi 11k, Leites 8.4k
Weight Class: 185
Gegard Mousasi is the second highest priced fighter on the card, but he’s currently the 4th heaviest favorite, and with little finishing upside, I’m questioning whether he’s worth a play against Thales Leites.
I do think Mousasi wins this fight, he’s the better striker in my opinion and even though he was knocked out against Uriah Hall, I’m not questioning his chin just yet. I also think he can compete with Leites if the fight gets on the ground, and he might have the wrestling to keep the fight upright, which should favor him.
On the opposite side, I think Leities is worth a punt play for cash games, similar to the way Fasholz was last week. Even in a loss, the fight should go three rounds, and I think Leites could land some significant strikes here or there to pay off the price. The bottom line is that I don’t think this fight provides enough upside to target in tournaments, and I’m not sure it warrants much exposure in general.
Fight Prediction: Mousasi by Decision
Tom Breese vs. Keita Nakamura
Fight Odds: Breese -1,000, Nakamura +650
Odds to finish: -390
Salaries: Breese 11.4k, Nakamura 8k
Weight Class: 170
I guess I’m late to the party on Tom Breese, but he’s looked pretty outstanding in his two fights in the UFC, which both ended in quick first round knockouts. And thanks to the UFC, he’s likely to make that three in a row against Keita Nakamura, who was surely brought into this bout to increase the Breese hype train.
The question here is not whether you think Breese will win, he’s a four-digit favorite with some of the highest upside on the card, and he’s facing a very hittable opponent whose only chance is to wrestle Breese down to the mat. The question is whether you can pay that 11.4k price tag on Breese.
Personally, I think yes. There are a couple of other moderate favorites like Gegard Mousasi but Breese isn’t that much more expensive, and he’s almost a lock to win with a high chance to finish. If you can afford him in cash games, I say do it.
In tournaments, he’s going to be tricky to squeeze in. If I told you Breese WILL finish in the first round, you’d probably force him in, but what if he finishes in the second round, or god forbid, earns a decision? I will definitely have exposure to him in GPPs for the upside, but I don’t think he’s a must play.
Fight Prediction: Breese by TKO, RD 1
Francisco Rivera vs. Brad Pickett
Fight Odds: Rivera -220, Pickett +180
Odds to finish: -150
Salaries: Rivera 10.4k, Pickett 9k
Weight Class: 135
This should be one of, if not the most exciting fight on the card between Francisco Rivera and Brad Pickett. I think both will be popular but I can’t say I disagree with some exposure on both sides.
I put Rivera in my Daily Fantasy Takedown video this week for his upside, which I think is high compared to his 10.4k price tag. Rivera is a very solid boxer with powerful punches, and Pickett hasn’t shown the best chin in his recent fights. Even if Pickett is winning the fight, I could see Rivera landing some hard shots that put Pickett away.
Even though I like Rivera, there are some things that concern me with him, and his chin has been in question for a few fights. Pickett hasn’t earned a TKO stoppage in a while, but if Takeya Mizugaki could knock out Rivera, I think Pickett is certainly capable, and if these two are brawling, it wouldn’t shock me to see Rivera fall.
I actually think Pickett’s best chance to win this fight is to get it to the ground with his wrestling and look for a submission, and that’s where his big advantage should be. I’m really not sure he follows through with that game plan though, and I expect the fight to take place on the feet more often than not.
From a DFS perspective, I really can’t argue with taking either guy in cash games or tournaments. Both have the upside, and both have enough safety in their significant strikes to warrant a look.
Fight Prediction: Rivera by TKO, RD 1
UNDERCARD NOTES
Mike Wilkinson vs. Makwan Amirkhani
Fight Odds: Amirkhani -185, Wilkinson +160
Odds to finish: -175
Salaries: Amirkhani 10.2k, Wilkinson 9.2k
Weight Class: 145
I’m not sure how sneaky it is but I like to target both sides of this fight between Mike Wilkinson and Makwan Amirkhani in GPPs. Amirkhani is another guy I added to my video because he certainly has the upside for a quick submission victory.
He’s earned two very quick finishes in his first two UFC fights, and he’s training with Conor McGregor and company in Ireland for this bout, and I think he’ll have the confidence to get a takedown and submission.
Wilkinson isn’t an easy fight though, and he’s had some quick finishes himself. He was submitted by Rony Jason, but Jason is a superb submission grappler and that alone doesn’t make me think Amirkhani will win. It is something to note, though, and I think Amirkhani is a strong enough scrambler and submission fighter to warrant tournament exposure.
If the fight stays on the feet, I’m not sure Amirkhani will win. He got a quick KO against Andy Ogle but I think Wilkinson is the better striker and he’ll have a great chance to derail Mr. Finland’s hype train. There just isn’t enough UFC tape on these guys for me to trust them in cash games though, and that’s why I’m advising both as tournament options.
Fight Prediction: Amirkhani by RNC, RD 1
Davey Grant vs. Marlon Vera
Fight Odds: Grant -175, Vera +155
Odds to finish: -140
Salaries: Grant 10.5k, Vera 8.9k
Weight Class: 135
Davey Grant’s first and only fight was a loss to Chris Holdsworth in the TUF 18 finale in 2013, and he, along with Holdsworth, have been injured ever since.
Marlon Vera is 1-1 in his UFC career with a submission victory coming most recently against Roman Salazar. This fight is difficult to pick from the sense that Grant hasn’t fought in such a long time, and it’s hard to say if he’s as healthy or strong as he used to be. If he’s in prime shape and has no health issues, I think he beats Vera.
Both Grant and Vera have won most of their fights by submission and I expect Grant to try and take the fight to the ground. I don’t think Vera is good enough to assume that he’d get a submission off his back against Grant. If the fight stays on the feet, it’s anyone’s game, but I think it will be competitive.
Vegas thinks this fight is surprisingly likely to finish, so I think both warrant tournament exposure, but I especially like Grant. He’s not my favorite play of the weekend, but he’s a nice contrarian option.
Fight Prediction: Grant by Decision
Scott Askham vs. Chris Dempsey
Fight Odds: Askham -335, Dempsey +275
Odds to finish: -185
Salaries: Askham 10.6k, Dempsey 8.8k
Weight Class: 185
I’m not super high on either of these fighters in general, but Scott Askham is the only play you should consider and I think he’s fine for cash games or GPPS.
Askham is a pretty strong striker, especially in the clinch, but more importantly, Chris Dempsey just doesn’t seem like a good fighter. He earned a split decision against Eddie Gordon but has been wrecked in both of his other two UFC fights. I think it’s very reasonable to predict a quick finish by Askham.
Fight Prediction: Askham by TKO, RD 2
Arnold Allen vs. Yaotzin Meza
Fight Odds: Allen -350, Meza +290
Odds to finish: -101
Salaries: Allen 10.9k, Meza 8.5k
Weight Class: 145
Arnold Allen is the Sage Northcutt of the UK, except he’s a better overall fighter and a legit prospect that can compete now, even though he’s super young and will undoubtedly grow in the UFC. He already beat Omer Allen who is a tough, tough fighter, and although Arnold Allen was losing that fight at stages, he looked solid.
Yaotzin Meza is capable of winning this fight. He’s a good wrestler and he has high fight IQ, and Ben Henderson plays a MASSIVE role as his cornerman. Meza will want to take the fight to the ground and look for a submission, which I think he can have partial success with early because Allen’s takedown defense is penetrable.
However, once this fight hits the latter part of the first round, I really don’t see Meza having continued success. He’s going to be at a huge striking disadvantage, and his wrestling advantage isn’t that strong. I could see Allen scrambling and reversing Meza if he gets taken down.
Even though I consider Meza somewhat of a live dog, I fully expect Allen to win and probably finish the fight. I wouldn’t touch Meza on DraftKings but I think Allen makes for a great GPP play. I don’t love him as much for cash games because Meza may force Allen to grapple too much to land enough significant strikes. But sooner or later, I think Allen can land some heavy shots or get himself in a good position on the ground, and because of that high upside, he’s a very strong tournament play.
Fight Prediction: Allen by TKO, RD 2
Bradley Scott vs. Krzystof Jotko
Fight Odds: Jotko -165, Scott +145
Odds to finish: +135
Salaries: Jotko 10.1k, Scott 9.3k
Weight Class: 185
This is another really close fight between Brad Scott and Krzystof Jotko but I don’t think it has too much fantasy relevance. There’s simply more fighters I’m confident in winning and there’s certainly more fighters I’m confident in finishing.
I was very impressed with Jotko in his victory against Scott Askham and I think he’s the more consistent of the two, so I’m taking him to win. I won’t have much, if any, of either fighter on DraftKings.
Fight Prediction: Jotko by Decision
Norman Parke vs. Rustam Khabilov
Fight Odds: Khabilov -250, Parke +210
Odds to finish: +190
Salaries: Khabilov 10.7k, Parke 8.7k
Weight Class: 155
For his price, there’s no chance I’m paying up to roster Rustam Khabilov. At his best, Khabilov is an ultra-aggressive wrestler with good submission grappling skills but I don’t think this matchup against Norman Parke is one where he’ll shine.
Parke is a tough out in the UFC and although he’s not a huge threat to finish, he’s very well-rounded. I think Khabilov can have success getting the fight to the ground but it won’t be easy and Parke will make him work for it. On the feet, I give a slight advantage to Parke for his output.
From a DFS perspective, the only play I’m considering is Parke in cash games. This fight should go to a decision and Parke could potentially grind his way to a victory, but there’s little to no upside and it’s not worth a look on either side in tournaments.
Fight Prediction: Khabilov by Decision
Daniel Omielanczuk vs. Jarjis Danho
Fight Odds: Omielanczuk -110, Danho -110
Odds to finish: -185
Salaries: Danho 9.8k, Omielanczuk 9.6k
Weight Class: HW
There’s no way I’d consider touching this fight in a cash game but it’s heavyweight MMA so it has tournament value. Last week’s heavyweight clash didn’t produce a ton of points and I wouldn’t be surprised if this fight replicated that to some sort. It only carries a -185 prop to finish, which is extremely low for the division.
As far as the matchup, Jarjis Danho is making his UFC debut and he’s huuuuge. He’ll have a significant size and probably power advantage over Daniel Omielanczuk. Danho has his issues though. He basically ONLY throws hooks and uppercuts. He’s also a powerful wrestler but he’s not a good submission grappler.
Omielanczuk should have a cardio advantage but we’ve seen his chin fail before, and we’ve seen him rushed into the cage and taken down. I think that’s a potential possibility for this fight. I also think Omielanczuk’s experience could play a huge advantage, and he’s clearly capable of landing a knockout himself.
I’m not super high on this fight in general, and as always, it’s an extremely difficult fight to call. Target both sides in GPPs or ride one if you feel more comfortable that way, but this fight is a toss up.
Fight Prediction: Danho by Decision
Teemu Packalen vs. Thibault Gouti
Fight Odds: Gouti -130, Packalen +110
Odds to finish: +105
Salaries: Gouti 9.9k, Packalen 9.5k
Weight Class: 155
This fight is accurately tagged as a pickem between Teemu Packalen and Thibault Gouti. Packalen lost a decision on short notice to Mickael Lebout in his debut, and now TUF member Gouti gets his shot at a short-notice debut.
I really don’t have a strong read on this fight, but I think Packalen is the stronger submission grappler and he’ll want to get the fight to the mat. Gouti will most likely want to keep the fight on the feet. There are plenty of fights that Vegas likes to finish, and this isn’t one of them.
I’m not a huge fan of targeting this fight in general for the lack of upside.
Fight Prediction: Packalen by Decision
David Teymur vs. Martin Svensson
Fight Odds: Teymur -145, Svensson +125
Odds to finish: +105
Salaries: Teymur 10k, Svensson 9.4k
Weight Class: 155
The general consensus on this fight is that David Teymur is a much, much stronger striker and Martin Svensson is the stronger grappler. If Teymur can keep the fight standing, he’ll have a great opportunity to earn the win and a finish.
I think Teymur’s wrestling defense is strong enough to keep the fight standing, and I don’t mind targeting him in any format. Especially for his price, I think Teymur is a very solid option this weekend.
Fight Prediction: Teymur by Decision