UFC Fight Night: Souza vs. Hermansson Quick Picks
Welcome back to another edition of the UFC Quick Picks!
We have an action-packed card this weekend, the final seven fights are all expected to end inside the distance which could make for an extremely high scoring slate. It should also make for a fun one to sweat as well. I’ve listed some of my favorite options below to help you get started.
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Onto the fights!
Cash Game Plays
1. Roosevelt Roberts, 9.5k
He’s priced as the most expensive fighter on the slate, but I plan to pay up for Roosevelt Roberts in cash games this weekend.
Roberts is also the second heaviest favorite at -450, with an ITD line of -170 and clear wrestling and grappling potential. He’ll be taking on a UFC newcomer Thomas Gifford, whose earned a number of submission wins but struggles with defensive wrestling.
Roberts looks to be the better athlete, wrestler and grappler, and I expect that’s why his betting line continues to rise. He brings in safety with those metrics, and a solid floor based on his wrestling and grappling, and those are attributes I look for when paying up in cash games.
2. Jacare Souza, 8.9k
You can rarely go wrong with the Main Event favorite in cash games, and when in doubt, I will default to that pick. We have Jacare Souza taking on Jack Hermansson in the Main Event this weekend, and Jacare comes in as a solid favorite at -220, with a DraftKings price of 8.9k.
In theory, it’s a strong stylistic matchup for Souza. He’s a world-class submission grappler, and Hermnasson has had the most success when he’s been able to earn top position. That’s going be difficult in this matchup, and on paper, Souza should have advantages when the two tangle on the mat.
He’s also far more experienced and a solid boxer as well, and with five rounds to work with, I expect Jacare to put up a solid score in victory. Hermansson is live though, especially as the 39-year-old Souza tires, and that could be a concern down the stretch.
Still, in cash games, I think Souza makes for a strong option that you should consider to anchor your lineups.
Tournament Plays
1. Greg Hardy, 9.3k
Say what you will about Greg Hardy as a person, he carries high upside on DraftKings and that interests me from a tournament perspective. Yes he’s priced up at 9.3k, but he has the best ITD line on the entire slate at -240 and has a distinct chance to win by knockout in round one.
I expect Hardy to be a popular tournament target, but it’s hard to avoid him completely on this slate given his potential. His opponent Dmitrii Smoliakov has already been finished twice in his two UFC bouts, and the UFC is calling him back from the regional scene to most likely take another knockout loss in a high profile spot.
The analysis is simple and straightforward, there are many strong tournament options on this slate, but Hardy is among the best and I plan to have exposure to him this weekend.
2. Gilbert Burns, 9.1k
The entire top tier is filled with elite options, and another target I like for tournaments will be Gilbert Burns at 9.1k.
Essentially, I target Burns to some extent each and every time he fights. He’s a world-class submission grappler, with potential to wrestle, advance position and lock up a submission, which is the best way to score on DraftKings.
He’ll be taking on a legit prospect in Mike Davis making his UFC debut, one I am not underestimating while the fight plays out on the feet. But my hope is that Burns uses that strength as an opportunity to work his grappling game once again.
Burns has a strong ITD line of -129 and you get a bit of savings on him compared to the very top of the price range, as well as decreased ownership. We’re always searching for upside, and it’s pretty clear Burns has upside in this matchup this weekend.
Fade of the Week
1. Angela Hill, 9.4k
My Fade of the Week is a fairly easy one this week, there is just no chance I am paying up for Angela Hill in tournaments at 9.4k.
Hill is a heavy favorite and safe for cash games, but she’s priced in a range with Roosevelt Roberts, Greg Hardy, Gilbert Burns and Takashi Sato, each of whom have an ITD line north of 50 percent. There’s also the Main Event Jacare Souza priced down below that range, among others.
There are too many high-upside fighters on this slate, ones with real finishing potential, and Hill doesn’t fit that bill. She’s not a high-volume wrestler, and her ITD line of +474 doesn’t suggest she will come close to finishing this fight.
I won’t be surprised if Hill puts up 80 or 90 points in a decision, but for 9.4k, I absolutely need 100 or more on this slate. At that price, Hill is going to be an easy fade for me in tournaments.