UFC Fight Night: Stephens vs. Choi Quick Picks
Please Note: Both the Cummings/Alves fight and the Hall/Belfort fight have been canceled!!!!
Happy New Year and welcome to the UFC St. Louis Quick Picks! We have a whopping 13-fight card and I’m very hopeful each fight stays intact for the Sunday edition of UFC this week.
Though the prizes aren’t top notch, the card is a great taster for next week’s UFC 220 that features both the HW and LHW titles, and DraftKings should really blow the prizes out of the water there. Until then, I’ve given away some of my favorite plays for the St. Louis card.
NEW TO MMA PREMIUM: I’ve decided to add my personal bets, betting breakdown videos and strategies to MMA Premium, which you can find in the link below.
If you want FULL BREAKDOWNS of every single fight on the card, projections, rankings and more, you can find that in the Premium Section here. We’ve also launched the MMA LINEUP BUILDER which you can access with my projections if you purchase the premium content.
Cash Game Plays
1. Kamaru Usman, 9.4k
People will make the mistake of paying up for fighter in a similar pricing tier as Kamaru Usman in cash games, but Usman is the clear No. 1 overall cash game option on the slate, and I’m doing everything I can to fit him in my lineups.
In theory there are other “safe” options at the high end, but the floor of most of those fighters don’t come close to reaching Usman’s level. Kang hasn’t fought in three years, Hall is a clear boom or bust option, and Frevola has never fought in the UFC before.
Usman is potentially the best Welterweight on the planet right now, and he’s the heaviest favorite on the card at -700, with an ITD line of +134. His fighting style also provides safety because he’s an elite wrestler with good cardio. The fight is setting up for Usman to land many takedowns and passes, assuming he chooses to take the easiest path to a victory.
He may be tough to pay up for, but in cash games, but I’m taking the highest-floor and safest option on the card and anchoring my lineups with Usman.
2. Jeremy Stephens, 7.7k
If you want to read my full breakdown of the main event, that’s available for you in the MMA Premium section. But if you’re looking for a spoiler, I think this fight between Jeremy Stephens and Dooho Choi has the opportunity to be competitive and last the full five rounds.
Both fighters are in play in all formats for me personally, but if I have to ride with one solo in cash games, I’ll take my chances with Stephens. The simplest explanation is the price, we need to find fighters below the mid-range that allow us to pay up for other safe options, and Stephens allows us to do that at 7.7k.
Stephens won’t land at a massive rate, but he should hang in there for the majority of 25 minutes, and his experience and power gives him real potential to pull off the victory over a young prospect like Choi. Regardless, I consider Stephens to have a high floor comparative to many other options in his range, based on the five-round potential, and I think he’s an obvious cash game target this weekend.
Tournament Plays
1. Kyung Ho Kang, 9.2k
Two of the more popular fighters on the card could be Usman and Uriah Hall, who are priced at 9.4k and 9.1k respectively. I understand wanting to pay up for them in tournaments, but I also like another group of fighters in the top range who could be lower owned.
Kyung Ho Kang sits in between Usman and Hall at 9.2k, and I’m expecting him to be low owned for that reason, which makes him an excellent tournament option. He hasn’t fought in three years due to a mandatory military service in South Korea, so the public won’t remember him anyways. There’s risk here clearly, but he’s getting a soft return matchup against Guido Cannetti.
I like Kang because he’s a big, physical grappler with excellent transitions and a high-level submission grappling game, and he should have major advantages on the ground over Cannetti. I prefer him in GPPs because of the aformentioned risk, but he has a real chance to land takedowns, passes and earn a submission within the first two rounds.
With an ITD line of +110 I think that’s a reasonable outcome, and it would give him the potential to score 110 points, which we would like at that price. The combination of ownership, fighting style and finishing ability puts him squarely on my radar in tournaments.
2. Dooho Choi, 8.5k
It’s only fair that I speak to the opposite side of the main event, and why I prefer Choi over Stephens in tournaments. As I mentioned, there aren’t many obvious underdogs on the card, and Stephens price and name value will push a ton of ownership his way.
I expect Stephens to be the most popular underdog on the card, and since there are plenty of obvious targets at the top end, that might bring Choi’s ownership down a bit in tournaments. The public is still acting like Stephens is the favorite in this matchup, yet Choi is still a -155 favorite and has a much better ITD line than Stephens at +114.
Choi also fights at a higher pace than Stephens, and lands at 5.58 significant strikes per minute, compared to Stephens 2.99. Essentially, I like Stephens more in cash because of his price, and safety, but I like Choi for his ownership and upside in tournaments.
Over the course of five rounds I expect one of these two fighters to put up a strong score, and if the public is siding with the underdog, I think that’s a good opportunity to pivot onto the higher-upside favorite at a lower ownership in tournaments.
Fade of the Week
1. Danielle Taylor, 7.9k
My original fade of the week was Uriah Hall, a brilliant thought in my opinion, but of course that fight gets canceled and shakes up the entire landscape of the slate. Honestly, I think every other fighter is in play at this point, though I could easily write up Meek or Cannetti as a fade.
Instead, I’ll share someone who I think could be popular but I’m not as high on as others, and that’s Danielle Taylor. She’s won her last two fights by split decision and she often comes in under priced compared to her odds, which we see again this week. She’s currently a -110 on the betting line and she could very reasonable beat JJ Aldrich this week.
The problem I have with her is that she strikes at a very low rate and she’s at a massive seven-inch reach disadvantage. I think she could have trouble landing enough significant strikes to pay off her price tag, and she’s not likely to land more than a takedown. She also has a very low chance to finish at +595 ITD.
So although she could scrape by another split decision win, I have trouble seeing her score more than 70 points, and I think it’s unlikely she ends up on the optimal lineup. For those reasons, combined with her potential ownership, I will likely be underweight to her this weekend.
Sneaky Fight to Target
I’ll throw another free tip in there for you guys, I think the opening fight between Mads Burnell and Mike Santiago is very sneaky for tournaments. Neither fighter should be heavily owned as both have only fought once in the UFC, and both were submitted by much better opponents.
Santiago is a pressure fighter and both he and Burnell will ultimately want to get the fight on the mat. Santiago has potential to win by KO or land many takedowns, and Burnell has a shot at a submission to go along with some wrestling. For their respective prices of 8.7k and 7.5k, I think the winner of Santiago and Burnell will have a good opportunity to score well, and I’m willing to target both sides in tournaments.