UFC Fight Night: Swanson vs. Ortega Quick Picks
Welcome to the UFC Fresno Quick Picks! There are only three cards left in the 2017 calendar year, which will close with a high profile UFC 219 PPV. For now, we get a decent card that should be more fun to watch for the hardcore fans, and one that offers a bunch of difficult matchups to analyze.
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Onto the fights!
CASH GAME PLAYS
1. Davi Ramos, $8,700
We’re going to value town this week for cash game targets and the first is Davi Ramos at 8.7k. Ramos is the seventh most expensive fighter, but he’s the biggest favorite on the card according to Vegas at -430.
Regardless of your opinion on the matchup, it’s best to look at the odds blindly sometimes, and this is a case where doing that would clearly lead us to value. Ramos is extremely underpriced, and those are often targets I want on my cash game teams.
Ramos is facing Chris Gruetzemacher who could pose a problem for him on the feet, potentially. But Ramos is a world-class submission grappler and Gruetzemacher has little to no ground game, and no athleticism to back it up. The line is so wide because Ramos is a much better athlete and the he’s expected to get the fight to the mat and likely earn a submission. I’m on board with Ramos this week.
2. Alex Perez, $8,900
The other price that sticks out to me is Alex Perez at 8.9k, who has a Vegas line of -370. He’s the second heaviest favorite on the card and there are still four fighters priced above him. Perez is coming off Dana White’s Tuesday Night Contender Series where he earned a first-round submission, but I expect the line is so wide because people aren’t a fan of his opponent Carls John De Tomas.
Tomas is a decent wrestling coming off the Eastern Asian regional scene, but his game isn’t super well-rounded. Perez is fairly experienced and seems to be the better athlete, and unless he’s stuck in guard on the bottom he should earn the win.
Most importantly, the point I already mentioned, he has value built into his price and so he’s definitely in play for cash games for me.
TOURNAMENT PLAYS
1. Eryk Anders, $9,200
Pick your poison at the top of the price range this week, but I’ll choose Eryk Anders for my first tournament target at 9.2k. I expect him to be popular, he was way underpriced in his UFC debut and came through for everyone with a quick KO of Rafael Natal.
Now he gets another opponent who probably needs the fight on the mat to win, and who also can’t wrestle well enough, so Anders should have a strong chance at winning the fight. He also has a -125 line to finish the fight, which is the best on the card.
Anders is a former National Champion football player from Alabama, we know the athleticism is there and I’m hoping he continues to grow with another finish this weekend.
2. Antonio Braga Neto, $7,100
This is a complete dart throw on someone who I expect to be super low owned, Antonio Braga Neto is someone who I think has high enough upside for the price.
Neto hasn’t fought since June 2014, and his last fight was a split decision loss to Clint Hester. His new opponent Trevin Giles only has one UFC fight and won by TKO in round two, and who has also never lost a fight in his pro career.
Neto may very well gas and get finished if the fight makes it out of round one, but he does have a legitimate submission game that Giles may be susceptible too. Giles has shown weakness on the ground on the regional scene, but it’s gone unnoticed because he has won those fights.
There’s enough chance that Giles gets taken down and worked against a better grappler here that I’m willing to throw a dart on Neto, but it’s a tournament play only.
FADE OF THE WEEK
1. Liz Carmouche, $8,400
There’s been a bunch of talk about why Liz Carmouche will beat Alexis Davis this time around, even though she lost by decision to Davis only a few years ago. It may come to fruition, but Carmouche still needs to land takedowns to earn the win.
And what I really don’t like about this matchup for Carmouche is that IF she does get the takedowns, Davis will be completely fine to play from guard and try to work a submission. I don’t see her landing more than 50 significant strikes, and I don’t see her landing more than a few takedowns, so really her ceiling is about 70 points without a finish.
Carmouche’s odds to finish are +391, which are not great. I think there are plenty of better options in her price tier and she makes for a pretty easy fade in tournaments, even if she does get the win it should not burn you.