UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Pettis Quick Picks

Welcome back to another edition of the UFC Quick Picks!

Not my favorite card of the year as the UFC hits Nashville, but there’s still more than $150k and five Qualifier seats up for grabs, so as usual I’ve listed some of my favorite options for you below.

If you want FULL BREAKDOWNS of every single fight on the card, projections, rankings and more, you can find that in the Premium Section here. We’ve also launched the MMA LINEUP BUILDER which you can access with my projections if you purchase the premium content.

Onto the fights!

Cash Game Plays

1. Maycee Barber, 8.9k

She will be a popular target, but Maycee Barber at 8.9k is a very strong cash game play this week.

Barber is a decent value for her price with a line of -250 and a +125 ITD, and she fights at a high pace and is capable of wrestling. There’s not much more we can ask for. Barber will come forward, throw in volume and likely pick up a takedown or two in the course of 15 minutes.

If she does earn top position, she’s capable of ferocious ground-and-pound that could lead to a stoppage or at the very least, help her solidify rounds.

At 8.9k, with one of the better odds to win on the slate, I will be comfortably plugging Barber into my cash game builds this week.

2. Chris Gutierrez, 8.3k

Probably the best value play on the slate, Chris Gutierrez is only priced at 8.3k but he comes in with a betting line of -235 and an ITD line of +115.

Gutierrez will be taking on short notice replacement Ryan MacDonald who is making his UFC debut and has fought questionable competition on the regional scene, and Gutierrez has only really been beaten by high-level wrestlers.

This should be a better stylistic matchup for Gutierrez and I think he’s the more technical striker, but that value is hard to ignore. We always look for value plays in cash game builds as they give us an advantage in the long term, and at 8.3k, I think Gutierrez is an easy target this weekend.

Tournament Plays

1. Stephen Thompson, 9.3k

It’s not much of a hot take, but I get the impression Stephen Thompson could go overlooked this week at 9.3k against Anthony Pettis.

He hasn’t been much of a finisher as of late so I can understand the sentiment, but he does carry a reasonable ITD line of +135 and has five rounds to work with. There aren’t many obvious finishers on this slate and although I don’t have the utmost confidence in Thompson getting a finish, he does have the best chance to win on this card and has one of the better finishing props.

It also should be noted Pettis is moving up from Lightweight to Welterweight for this bout, and has even fought at Featherweight in the past. That extra size advantage could play a role for Thompson and we could see his strikes impact Pettis more than recent powerhouse opponents like Woodley and Till.

If he’s going to be lower owned than the Main Event favorite would be on a typical slate, I will probably look to target him in that top range and hope he can earn the finish.

2. Bobby Moffett, 8.8k

There are a half-dozen options who make for reasonable GPP targets in the same price range, but one I do like a bit more than others is Bobby Moffett at 8.8k.

Moffett is a grinder, he wants the takedown and he’s a black belt in jiu-jitsu. He’s capable of racking up takedowns, advances and potentially a submission, and that always intrigues me from a DraftKings perspective.

He’ll be fighting Bryce Mitchell who is a solid submission grappler in his own right, but Moffett trains out of the MMA Lab and I expect him to be a bit more dangerous in this matchup. His ITD line of +195 is more than reasonable and this is mostly a shot at the grappling upside he carries.

It still could be a competitive scrap but I’ll always put a few shares on fighters who I think have potential to grapple and earn a submission, and Moffett fits that bill this weekend.

Fade of the Week

1. Alexis Davis, 8.6k

I don’t particularly mind Alexis Davis but her price is a bit too expensive for my taste and there are several better options than her in the same price range.

Davis has never been a knockout threat so her best chance to exceed value is with a submission, and she’s currently only -130 to win and +455 ITD against Jennifer Maia. I just can’t make a heavy investment on Davis with options like Barber, Moffett, Figueiredo, Vera, Gutierrez in that same price range.

About the Author

bbbomb
Brett Appley (bbbomb)

One of the top MMA minds in the DFS industry, Brett Appley a.k.a bbbomb has been writing his weekly “Beat Down” article for RotoGrinders since the sport launched on DraftKings in 2015. Brett has earned multiple Top 10 rankings in MMA since that time and has taken down a handful of tournaments as well.