UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Till Quick Picks
Welcome to another edition of the UFC Quick Picks! We crushed the UFC Chile slate last week and I’m hoping we can crush this weekend’s UFC Liverpool card, which is a Sunday morning event.
Again, the prize pools are amazing for this slate but an edge is an edge. Plus we only have two weeks left before UFC 225 which should be a huge sell, and another month after that before UFC 226. Lots of exciting events to come.
If you want FULL BREAKDOWNS of every single fight on the card, projections, rankings and more, you can find that in the Premium Section here. We’ve also launched the MMA LINEUP BUILDER which you can access with my projections if you purchase the premium content.
Onto the fights!
Cash Game Plays
1. Neil Magny, 9.5k
To me, Neil Magny is in a tier of his own this weekend, and he’s definitely the first fighter I’m looking to in cash games.
He’s fighting a newcomer named Craig White who is coming in on short notice to replace the originally scheduled Gunnar Nelson, and White is just not as tough of a matchup. He’s been finished six times on the regional scene and his overall game is not up to UFC standard.
As with any matchup there’s some path to victory for him, but it’s slim, and that’s why Magny comes in as a -650 favorite, the biggest line on the card by far. Magny should be able to stand at range and beat White, but he should also be able to take him to the ground, advance position and look for a finish. His ITD line is also the best on the card at -175.
Based on those metrics and based on Magny’s ability to wrestle, he’s by far the safest play on the card. He’s who I’m plugging in as my cash game anchor this week.
2. Gina Mazany, 7.7k
I’ll be honest, I have little to no faith in Gina Mazany winning this weekend. But I have zero faith in her opponent Lina Lansberg either.
Both fighters are lower-level talents, period. But as I’ve mentioned many times, I do have longterm faith in Vegas, and Mazany is currently the slight favorite at -115, giving her the best odds value on the card for her 7.7k price tag.
Plus, Mazany is going to try and wrestle from the clinch, which is a good way to score DraftKings points. There are no real obvious fighters to play below the mid-range, outside of the potential main event favorite in Darren Till, so you are going to need to save money somewhere.
I’ll take my chances on team Vegas and target Mazany this weekend, her metrics and ability to wrestle give her a high floor for 7.7k and that’s what we need in cash games.
Tournament Plays
1. Eric Spicely, 8.7k
He’s my nemesis, but there’s no arguing Eric Spicely is in a high-upside position this weekend against Darren Stewart. For all that Spicely lacks, he’s a solid submission grappler and he’s fighting an opponent who has been submitted in both of his last two fights.
Stewart has an overaggressive style that generally leads to him gassing by the second round, and if he can’t finish Spicely with his wild early techniques, I don’t expect him to have the cardio to be effective for 15 full minutes. Spicely should be able to get a takedown and a submission at some point in the fight, again if he can survive that early burst.
His ITD line is +105 this weekend which is strong for this slate, and we know he can wrestle and grapple. For 8.7k, he has clear tournament-winning upside and I’m willing to take some risks on him.
2. Nordine Taleb, 9.1k
This play is more of a contrarian play than anything else, I don’t expect Nordine Taleb to get a ton of ownership this weekend.
He’s priced up at 9.1k which is expensive for his general talent and fighting style. He’s not the most aggressive fighter, he doesn’t wrestle a ton, he doesn’t have a ton of knockouts. But he’s a legitimate striker and he should have all the stand-up advantages in this spot against Claudio Silva.
Silva is coming off a four-year layoff and he’s now 35 years old, he’s a grappling-first fighter. If Silva can’t get the early takedowns, he’s probably going to gas out and be at a major disadvantage on the feet.
If that happens, Taleb will have an opportunity to knock him out. This outcome is not so likely as a Taleb decision, which is why his ownership will be low and his ITD line is only +180. But the narrative is there, and I’m willing to get some exposure to him in large-field tournaments and hope that he can pull off the finish.
Fade of the Week
1. Elias Theodorou, 9.4k
The fighter I am least interested in from the top tier this week is Elias Theodorou at 9.4k. He’s just too expensive compared to the risk of not paying off the price.
Theodorou will have to win by early knockout against Trevor Smith to reach 100 points, which is possible considering Smith has a sub-average chin. But Theodorou is still not a power puncher, and the Over 2.5 line on this fight is -275.
With Magny $100 more expensive and some better finishers in the mid-tier, I just won’t have enough room to get a strong dose of Theodorou this weekend, especially not with an ITD line of +250. He’ll have to prove to me he can get the quick knockout in these situations before I ever target him in this matchup at 9.4k.