UFC Fight Night: Till vs. Masvidal Quick Picks
Welcome back to another edition of the UFC Quick Picks!
We travel across the pond this weekend to London, where one of England’s brightest stars Darren Till gets a Main Event spotlight against Jorge Masvidal.
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Onto the fights!
Cash Game Plays
1. Nathaniel Wood, 9.4k
If I’m spending up in cash games this week, my favorite target is Nathaniel Wood at 9.4k, who is one of the heaviest favorites on the slate at -260.
Wood is a capable striker and grappler, and I don’t expect him to have much trouble producing more offensive than his counterpart Jose Quinonez. I also consider Wood more threatening, especially on the feet, and there’s real potential he can put Quinonez in trouble.
Quinonez is well-rounded but he’s not a strong finisher and likely won’t have success with his wrestling in this matchup. Plus, he’ll be traveling across the pond to take on the English prospect Wood, so there’s always potential for the judges to get swayed by the home town crowd.
Wood is clearly one of the safest options on the slate this weekend and I think he makes for a strong cash game target.
2. Mike Grundy, 7.3k
One of a couple obvious value plays, Mike Grundy is only +115 on the betting line but comes in at a super cheap price of 7.3k.
We always love to target values in cash games so Grundy peaks my interest in that regard, but he’s also a high-volume wrestler which should only increase his floor. Grundy will be making his UFC debut Saturday against Nad Narimani, and it could be a tough test for him, but Grundy has a high-level wrestling background and has fared well on the regional scene.
In order to pay up for the studs, we’ll need to find savings somewhere down the card, and Grundy is one of the more obvious choices.
Between the wrestling potential and the pricing value, I think Grundy at 7.3k is a great cash game option.
Tournament Plays
1. Dominick Reyes, 9.3k
There are certainly reasons to be hesitant on the hype that surrounds Dominick Reyes, but there’s no doubt he carries upside this weekend and will be a very popular tournament target at 9.3k.
Reyes is 4-0 in the UFC with three finishes, and he’s looked legit both on the feet and on the mat. He’ll be taking on Volkan Oezdemir, whom the public perceives as an inferior technician with weak cardio. I see the potential for this bout to be competitive on the feet, but if Reyes can get the fight to the mat he should have a significant advantage.
Reyes carries an ITD line of -121 which is one of the best on the slate, and at 9.3k I am willing to take some chances on him in tournaments.
2. Nick Negumereanu, 9k
This is a complete shot in the dark, as Nick Negumereanu steps in on short notice to fight Saparbek Safarov.
Negumereanu is only 24 years old and has fought very poor competition on the Romanian regional scene, which obviously does not compare to UFC-level talent. But Negumereanu has shown some skills, and he should have an athletic and power advantage over Safarov.
Safarov has been finished in both his two UFC fights and Negumereanu has proven capable of finishing fights on the feet and on the mat. With an ITD line of -120, I am more than willing to target Negumereanu in tournaments.
There is definite risk here, and a real unknown factor with Negumereanu, but we’re always targeting upside and I believe Negumereanu has a legitimate chance to earn a finish and hit the optimal lineup.
Fade of the Week
1 Darren Till, 9.2k
I don’t like to take the safe route with this segment and I’m not saying you MUST fade Darren Till by any stretch, but I’ll give you argument as to why he’s not the strongest play this weekend.
Till is taking on veteran Jorge Masvidal, who has only been TKOd once in 45 career fights. With an ITD line of +183, it’s not overwhelmingly likely that Till will earn a finish, and that severely limits his upside.
Till only lands 2.39 significant strikes per minute, a super low rate and he’s not likely to increase that volume dramatically in this matchup. He’s also not a strong offensive wrestler and I doubt he can have success on the mat against Masvidal.
Without that finish or multiple knockdowns, Till is going to be lucky to hit the 80 point mark in a win, and that’s just not enough for 9.2k. The proven durability of Masvidal is a big factor to me and I think you can make a strong case to fade Till on the slate.