UFC Fight Night: Weidman vs. Gastelum Quick Picks
Welcome to the UFC Long Island Quick Picks!
If you want FULL BREAKDOWNS of every single fight on the card, projections, rankings and more, you can find that in the Premium Section here. We’ve also launched the Beta version of the MMA LINEUP BUILDER which you can access with my projections if you purchase the premium content.
Myself and h3budda also broke down the card in full on GrindersLive, which can be found here.
Onto the fights!
Cash Game Plays
1. Shane Burgos, $8,700
This is a very interesting week on DraftKings because the salaries came out prior to odds, so there are a lot of discrepancies between the two. That means there’s a lot of value floating around, one of those values is Shane Burgos.
Simply, he’s the heaviest favorite on the card, -390 fighting against Godofredo Pepey, but he’s only priced at 8.7k. There are five fighters priced ahead of him, and he holds at least $600 worth of value if not more. Burgos also carries an ITD line of -167, which is the best on the card.
It is a risky matchup in the sense that Pepey is boom or bust, first round finish or bust, so I can’t say Burgos is the safest play on the board. But I will take that long term value all day in cash games, and if it makes you nervous, toss in some Pepey in GPPs as a hedge. But this is a strong matchup for Burgos, he should be able to keep the fight standing, land heavy strikes and earn a finish.
2. Eryk Anders, $7,400
This is another risky pick in the sense that I’m not at all confident Anders will win, but in cash games, I’m looking for long term value and Anders clearly has that. He’s only priced at 7.4k, one of the cheapest fighters on the card, but he’s a -125 favorite with an ITD line of +168.
I just don’t see many reasons to avoid that in cash games, it allows you to spend up and take five or six favorites, which gives your overall lineup a very high floor.
Anders is a former NCAA Champion in football at Alabama in 2009, and he fights like a football player learning how to fight.. It’s not the best I’ve ever seen but he’s a freak athlete and has natural power.
His opponent Rafael Natal is a veteran and a live dog in this spot, but I think Anders can hurt him early and potentially finish the fight. But the price is most important and it’s something I can’t ignore.
Tournament Plays
1. Gian Villante, $8,100
Another fighter with value, Gian Villante comes in at -165 with an ITD prop of +145, but he’s only priced at 8.1k
I would target him in this spot against Patrick Cummins regardless of his numbers though, I always target against Cummins in some regard. Cummins takes more damage than most fighters in the UFC and often doesn’t survive it, even in wins he barely escapes.
In his last fight for example he was hurt badly early but escaped three rounds by landing takedowns. I think he can do that here too, but I see this fight having too many stand-up exchanges, and I see him getting hurt badly and probably finished. Villante loves to brawl, and he’s going to look for the kill here, it just comes down to whether he can keep the fight standing.
I think the likelihood of that is high, and I’m willing to target him in tournaments for those reasons.
2. Chase Sherman, $8,900
Another high risk, high reward fighter, Chase Sherman is in a great spot to get an early finish this weekend. He’s not a good fighter, I’ll admit, but his opponent Damian Grabowski has looked awful in two UFC fights.
Sherman will come forward and land in volume, and I doubt Grabowski can take the punches. Sherman has one of the best finish props on the card at -154, and although I expect him to be popular, he’s one of my favorite tournament targets.
I will say, if you are planning on going heavy on Sherman, get a small piece of Grabowski too because there’s a chance he goes out here and wrestles early, and Sherman is bad enough that his ground game could completely fail him. I don’t expect it, I expect a Sherman finish, but this is a great fight to target overall.
Fade of the Week
1. Marlon Vera, $7,000
It’s a rare day where I give my fade of the week on the cheapest fighter on the card, but here we are. And let me clarify because I haven’t made lineups yet, I’ll probably throw 1-2 Vera lineups in the mix, but I plan to be vastly underweight compared to the field.
And I do think Vera will be popular, for the price especially. He’s coming off a knockout of Brad Pickett and a lot of people were on him then. He’s also fighting Brian Kelleher, a fighter who shocked Alcantara with a submission victory in his debut. DraftKings also mispriced this fight by making Kelleher the most expensive and Vera the cheapest.
I get the feeling a lot of people are like.. pshh, this is an easy target to fade Kelleher, the guy who got lucky. But I maintain that Vera is not a good fighter, and I will fade him continually. The only reason I’ll have a share or two, is because he’s an OK submission grappler and he’s cheap, and Kelleher has been subbed before. But there’s no other way Vera makes value.
Vera doesn’t wrestle. He barely throws any strikes. So how is going to score points? He needs a knockout, which is very unlikely. Or a submission. Vera’s ITD is +380 which isn’t good, but I think people will fall for the trap anyway because of the price. Don’t fall for the trap.