UFC Fight Night: Werdum vs. Tybura Quick Picks
Welcome to the UFC Sydney Quick Picks! We are coming off a very solid week and have a few more decent cards to go before we get to the final stretch of the year that includes UFC 218, 219 and major prize pools on DrafKings!
This isn’t the best card in the world, but as they say, there is money to be won on DraftKings, so here we are.
Onto the fights!
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If you want FULL BREAKDOWNS of every single fight on the card, projections, rankings and more, you can find that in the Premium Section here. We’ve also launched the MMA LINEUP BUILDER which you can access with my projections if you purchase the premium content.
Onto the fights!
Cash Game Plays
1. Alexander Volkanovski, 9.5k
I said it last week with Tatiana Suarez and I’ll say it this week with Alexander Volkanovski, there are certain fighters that it just makes sense to get exposure to every time they fight, and Volkanovski is one of those fighters for me.
He’s a legitimate prospect who has a high-paced grappling game and overwhelming power on the feet. He’s also the biggest favorite on the card at -700, and by far the safest fighter on the card. Even if he can win a so-called boring decision, he’s still likely to land a few takedowns and score moderately. At his best, he can land a couple takedowns early and win by ground-and-pound or via knockout.
At 9.5k, Volkanovski is expensive, but his odds only continue to rise and so I still think there is value in his price tag. He’s a great DraftKings play in all formats but I believe he’s strongest as an anchor to your cash games.
2. Ryan Benoit, 8.9k
There aren’t a ton of plays I love this week in terms of safety, and high upside, but one matchup I am targeting is Ryan Benoit against Ashkan Mokhtarian at 8.9k. Simply put, I am targeting against Mokhtarian, who was only brought into the UFC back when the promotion hit Australia. He was dominated by John Moraga in his debut, and now he gets a somewhat more forgiving matchup in Benoit.
But I don’t think it’s enough, I don’t think Mokhtarian has the tools to beat well-rounded UFC fighters. Benoit’s biggest flaw is largely his takedown defense, but he’s had struggles against high-level, explosive wrestlers. Mokhtarian is someone who looked average at best on the Australian regional scene. And if Benoit can keep the fight standing, he should have significant boxing and power advantages.
There are several spots you can target with your second cash game play, but I feel Benoit is reasonably priced and has a strong chance to win his fight, so that’s why I am targeting him. He also carries upside with an ITD line of +155 which only adds to his value.
Tournament Plays
1. Tim Means, 9.1k
By far the most exciting fight on the card, I think Tim Means sets up well to beat Belal Muhammad this week. Means is generally burned high physical athletes and high-level wrestlers, but I don’t think Muhammad will give him those troubles.
Muhammad has looked for the takedown and gotten it quite a bit, but he does it mostly based off hard work as opposed to physicality and athleticism. Means is a good enough defensive wrestler to stop those shots in my opinion, and so I have to assume this fight plays out on the feet for its majority.
And in that kind of fight, I have to favor the more varied, more explosive, more durable and more technical striker in Means. He’s known for destroying people in the clinch with elbows and knees and going for the kill. One worry I have is that he could be patient and sit back and win a decision if his opponent lets him. Muhammad will likely press forward though and that should allow Means to get to work.
Means has an ITD line of +155 and I think he has a reasonable shot to finish. Muhammad has been knocked out in the UFC and rocked multiple times, and while it’s not a lock, I think Means has the upside we are looking for in tournaments.
2. Tai Tuivasa, 8.8k
Generally, HW fights make for strong tournament plays and I think this bout with Tai Tuivasa and Rashad Coulter is no different. The problem is that both guys are relatively new and there’s little data surrounding them, which makes the fight overall hard to analyze.
But here’s what I can say, Tuivasa has clear power in his hands, is fighting close to home, comes in as the -165 favorite with an ITD line of -137. The fight overall has an ITD line of -515, and clearly if the fight does finish, someone should score well.
Coulter has only fought once in the UFC and got TKOd by Chase Sherman, and I think it’s very likely Tuivasa can do the same. I will have exposure to Coulter as well in tournaments, but Tuivasa is my preferred play and someone I’m definitely will to take a few shots on in GPPs.
Fade of the Week
1. Elias Theodorou, 9k
There are good traits in Elias Theodorou’s game, including his athleticism, intelligence and cardio. He likes to keep the fight at distance and throw kicks, and he’s capable of landing takedowns and grinding out the fight as well.
He’s not very dangerous, however, and that’s a big issue. Although he has TKOs on his record, nearly all of them come from ground-and-pound. He’s fighting Dan Kelly this week who has made a name for himself by constantly upsetting favorites, and I think he’s in play for another upset against Elias. Kelly is a former Judo Olympian and is strong in the clinch. I think Theodorou may have a difficult time landing takedowns, and so the fight is likely to play out on the feet.
We’ve seen Kelly get KOd before, by Sam Alvey and Derek Brunson, but I’m betting that’s based on the power and not based on Kelly’s chin. In all other fights he’s been able to take a punch, and Theodorou doesn’t have the power to scare me. Unless Theodorou does win by KO, I don’t see how he hits value at 9k. His line to finish is +370, which is again awful for that price.
There are simply better plays in all formats this week.