UFC Fight Night: Werdum vs. Volkov Quick Picks
Welcome back to the UFC Quick Picks! We had a week off prior to this week’s UFC London and we get two weeks off afterward, so this is your last chance to get UFC action prior to UFC 223 on April 7!
Though it’s not the best card in the world, it’s an early Fight Pass card which means no commercials and I’m down with that. I’m just looking to have some fun and get my action in for this week in preparation for the big cards in April.
If you want FULL BREAKDOWNS of every single fight on the card, projections, rankings and more, you can find that in the Premium Section here. We’ve also launched the MMA LINEUP BUILDER which you can access with my projections if you purchase the premium content.
Onto the fights!
CASH GAME PLAYS
1. Magomed Ankalaev, $9,200
The top favorite on the board this week is Magomed Ankalaev who’s lined at -650 in his UFC debut against Paul Craig. Ankalaev is undefeated and a solid combat sambo fighter who’s fought and beaten solid competition, and it seems likely he can snatch another victory against Craig.
DraftKings released the salaries prior to odds coming out so Ankalaev is actually very underpriced at 9.2k, he should likely be north of 9.5k and that value is hard to pass up. He will have one of the better finish props on the card as well.
Craig is a decent submission grappler but I expect Ankalaev to get takedowns and work him with ground-and-pound. If Craig can keep the fight standing he’ll have some semblance of a chance, and maybe he can lock up a submission in transition, but the odds do not favor that. Ankalaev is a very strong cash play this weekend.
2. Charles Byrd, $7,300
The other big mis-priced fighter is Charles Byrd who is only 7.3k but comes in as a -110 favorite against J0hn Phillips. Some will question whether you can play Byrd in cash because if he loses it may be a quick stoppage, but that value is immense.
Byrd won twice on Dana White’s Tuesday Night Contender Series, both by submission, and he’ll need to use that grappling against the debuting power boxer in Phillips. Though he has potential to earn a knockout, Phillips is lacking in the defensive grappling game and that’s very clear.
Byrd has a clear path to victory even though this fight is far from a lock. I just think he’s a very strong cash game play at 7.3k based on those odds and in the long run these value plays are ones we need to take advantage of.
TOURNAMENT PLAYS
1. Dmitriy Sosnovskiy, $8,700
Mark Godbeer won his last fight via DQ after Walt Harris kicked him in the groin and then kicked him in the face after the ref tried to pause the fight. People are pissed, Harris was well on his way to a first round stoppage.
Now Godbeer faces a debuting fighter in Dmitriy Sosnovskiy who has potential to do what Harris could not. Sosnovskiy is an undefeated prospect who is a wrestle-grappler training at American Top Team. I do have concerns about what he can do on the feet, but in tournaments that is irrelevant.
If Sosnovskiy has his way, he will get the fight down quickly and finish the fight in the first round. Godbeer has shown defensive grappling issues in most of his fights and that’s the clear path to victory here. There is risk but also a tremendous potential for reward with Sosnovskiy.
2. Hakeem Dawodu, $9,400
He may be lower owned than Ankalaev but I think Hakeem Dawodu has an equal amount of upside in his fight with Danny Henry.
Henry won his debut by outlasting Daniel Teymur, but he was beaten up in the early portion of that fight while Teymur still had energy. Dawodu is making his UFC debut from WSOF and is a legit prospect who I’m very interested in watching.
Dawodu is a legit striker with power and technique, and he’s much more athletic than Henry. Assuming he doesn’t gas himself out like Teymur, Dawodu should have a big advantage on the feet. Henry will likely need to land takedowns which I find unrealistic because he’s not a good wrestler and he’s not very athletic.
He’s the most expensive fighter on the board at 9.4k, but Dawodu has clear upside and I want some exposure to him this weekend.
FADE OF THE WEEK
1. Leon Edwards, $8,800
Of all the top tier fighters, Leon Edwards is my least favorite for 8.8k. He has the least amount of upside in my opinion and a low floor as well.
Edwards is billed as a striker but he’s needed to wrestle in basically each of his UFC fights to earn the win, and I kind of expect him to go for that path again. He only lands 2 sig. strikes per minute on the feet so I can’t trust the volume there. He’s also fighting a much better submission grappler in Peter Sobotta so I’m not thrilled about his chances to land takedowns and have success on the mat.
Edwards may very well win, but I don’t love the price on him and I’m willing to take the risk and pass on him.