UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. Brunson Quick Picks
Welcome to the Thanksgiving edition of the UFC Quick Picks, and I wish you all a happy holiday with your families and loved ones. If you’re actually reading this on Thanksgiving, you must really love MMA and I can’t blame you!
“If you’ve already come this far, maybe you’re willing to come a little further.”
I will be expanding fully on my Quick Picks article with breakdowns of each and every fight, along with rankings, projections and access to the premium chat, which you can purchase here for only $5!
It may be Thanksgiving weekend but there’s plenty of cash up for grabs on DraftKings, including a 30K Takedown with 5K to the winner, and Qualifier #4 in the 100k MMA Bracket Challenge. Fill those up!
And you can follow me on Twitter at BrettAppley and at DailyFanMMA to stay up to date on the latest content.
Cash Game Plays
1. Jake Matthews, 9.3k
Jake Matthews is the most expensive fighter on the board, but in a card that only features 2 fighters of 26 who are favored -200 or higher, I think Matthews makes for a great cash game play.
He’s favored at -300, fighting with a “home field” advantage, and he should provide a nice floor for your lineup. Matthews is coming off a loss to Kevin Lee, but he takes a big step down in competition to face Andrew Holbrook.
Holbrook isn’t a complete pushover, he carries a complex choking game, but he’s pretty one-dimensional. His striking is poor, and he’s coming off a brutal knockout loss, so I think Matthews will have the advantage on the feet. I also think Matthews is the better wrestler, and if he can avoid getting choked, he should win this fight.
It’s hard to feel 100 percent comfortable locking in Matthews for the price, but I’m trusting the odds on this one.
2. Robert Whittaker, 7.4k
The main event features an outstanding fight between Robert Whittaker and Derek Brunson, two 185ers itching to crack the top five. Both have looked good in their UFC careers, and both are rolling on five-fight win streaks, including four straight first round knockouts from Brunson, which is incredible.
The odds indicate it’s a close fight, with Brunson as the -140 favorite and Whittaker the +120 dog, and I agree, I think it’s a close fight. It’s hard not lean toward Brunson just a bit in this matchup, based on how hot he’s been during the two years, but it’s also hard to ignore the price on Whittaker.
I really do like both fighters on DraftKings, and I think a main event stack is very much in play. For 7.4k though, in a five round fight, at +120, Whittaker is an easy play to me. He lands at 4.95 significant strikes per minute, much higher than the 2.94 of Brunson, and I think he’ll score well if the fight lasts a few rounds or more. Add on his probability to win and potentially win by finish, and he’s a great play for his cost.
Tournament Plays
1. Alex Volkanovski, 9.2
I’m honestly upset that Alex Volkanovski was priced up at 9.2k this week, but I think that also makes him a better tournament play. Volkanovski is making his UFC debut against Yusuke Kasuya, who’s 0-1 in the UFC.
Volkanovski is a high-pressure wrestler with power in his hands, and he’s a guy who can land 10 takedowns in a fight and earn a finish, and with the new scoring system, that’s exactly what I’m looking for. My concerns with Volkanovski in this fight begin with the fact that Kasuya is a decent submission grappler himself and it wouldn’t shock me if Volkanovski couldn’t outwrestle him like he has against regional opponents. I also question the size difference in this fight, as Volkanovski seems a bit small for 145, yet he’s taking this fight at 155?
I’d love to see how he matches up with Kasuya at the weigh-ins, but regardless, I’ll be in on him in tournaments. He’s not going to change how he fights, and he’s always going to be a high-upside target in a wrestle-heavy scoring format. Priced at 9.2k, I wouldn’t be surprised to see him owned less than 20 percent, and he’s a great tournament buy this weekend.
2. Khalil Rountree, 8.7k
It’s going to be hard for me not to target Khalil Rountree in tournaments every time he enters the Octagon. He lost in the TUF Finale to Andrew Sanchez and was outwrestled pretty easy, so it’s clear that wrestling is his weakness. But if he keeps the fight standing, he’s a great athlete and heavy hitter, and he’s always going to be in play for a first round knockout.
He’s fighting a newcomer in Tyson Pedro who’s relatively inexperienced, and I’m not sure what we will get from him in his debut. He’s won three of his four fights by submission, so in theory if his wrestling and submission grappling skills are good, he can get this fight to the ground and earn a stoppage himself. But I’m doubting how talented those skills really are, and I’m going to have more exposure to Rountree.
The Over 1.5 Rounds prop on this fight is only -115, meaning Vegas likes it to finish quickly, and I recommend getting a piece of this fight regardless of which route you want to take.
Fade of the Week
1. Chris Camozzi, 9.1k
I understand taking Chris Camozzi in cash games, as he’s a -245 favorite and priced at 9.1k, but I don’t want any of him in tournaments. He’s fighting Daniel Kelly, best known as the really really old guy who somehow holds a 4-1 record in the UFC.
Kelly is a former Australian Judo Olympian and his grappling skills are good, even for an old man. I’ve lost a lot of money betting against Kelly, and I absolutely see a route for him to win this fight against Camozzi.
At 9.1k, I think people are going to gravitate toward Camozzi, although I don’t think he’ll be 40 percent owned, he could be in the 25-35 range. Camozzi has shown weakness on the ground, and I expect Kelly to give him a tough fight. Kelly’s only loss in the UFC was a brutal knockout by Sam Alvey, and I don’t think Camozzi possesses those same power punching traits to put Kelly away quickly.
Sure it’s possible Camozzi finishes Kelly, but I just don’t see it being a high scoring win, and I’m not willing to pay the 9.1 tag on him, especially with Volkanovski and Matthews sitting right there. I’d be very surprised if Camozzi came out of that group scoring the highest, and I think he makes for a good tournament fade this weekend.