UFC Fight Night: Zombie vs. Rodriguez Quick Picks
Welcome back to another edition of the UFC Quick Picks!
There is a fight card nearly every week for the rest of the year, and this weekend’s should be a fun, action-packed card in Denver. Plus, there is more than $100K and four Qualifier Seats up for grabs on DraftKings, and that’s why we’re here.
If you want FULL BREAKDOWNS of every single fight on the card, projections, rankings and more, you can find that in the Premium Section here. We’ve also launched the MMA LINEUP BUILDER which you can access with my projections if you purchase the premium content.
Onto the fights!
CASH GAME PLAYS
1. Davi Ramos, 9.5k
Currently favored at -1000, Davi Ramos is the safest fighter on the slate and the one I am prioritizing most in cash games.
He’s fighting John Gunther, who is not a UFC-level opponent and is an amazing stylistic matchup for Ramos. Gunther is a poor striker with average wrestling and grappling, and Ramos is a world-class submission grappler.
Ramos should be able to win this fight in all areas of the game, and I expect him to earn a finish with an ITD line of -360. In cash games, Ramos is the clear top option on the slate and I’m making him a priority this weekend.
2. Yair Rodriguez, 7.7k
I’m always a fan of targeting the Main Event in cash games, and will likely stack both Yair Rodriguez and Chan Sung Jung in cash games, but the priority has to be Rodriguez at 7.7k with a betting line of -115.
We have to find ways to save on the slate in order to target the top options, and Rodriguez is simply too cheap to ignore in cash games. He has the potential to fight for five full rounds and has an ITD line of +170, so the upside is there as well.
I would advise targeting both fighters to some extent in tournaments as the winner has a strong chance to hit the optimal lineup, but in cash games if I could pick just one, it would be Rodriguez for the price and odds value.
TOURNAMENT PLAYS
1. Mark De La Rosa, 9k
One of the higher upside plays on the slate is Mark De La Rosa who comes in at the reasonable price tag of 9k flat.
Rosa is a black belt in jiu-jitsu and likely needs to take the fight to the ground to have an advantage over his opponent Joby Sanchez. Thankfully for Rosa, Sanchez defends takedowns at a rate sub 40 percent, and tends to give up his back in scrambles.
Rosa isn’t the best wrestler or striker in the world, but in terms of upside, Rosa has potential to land takedowns, find the back and the RNC. And that’s one of the best paths to score well on DraftKings, which is why Rosa makes for a strong tournament play.
Plus he has an ITD line of +155 which is fairly strong, and I’m definitely willing to target him in tournaments.
2. Bobby Moffett, 7.8k
Another salary-saving option, Bobby Moffett comes in at 7.8k as a -115 favorite against the veteran Chas Skelly.
I won’t be considering Moffett as a heavy-exposure play, simply based on his high projected ownership due to line value. But at the same token, I do think it makes sense to get some exposure to Moffett for the value and his fighting style.
Moffett is somewhat of a grinder, he’s a black belt in jiu-jitsu and wants to land the takedown and advance position where he can find the submission. That may be a tough path to victory against Skelly who can wrestle, but Moffett should be competitive in all aspects of the game and has upside for that reason.
In tournaments, Moffett is one of the better salary-saving options on the slate at 7.8k.
FADE OF THE WEEK
1. Germaine de Randamie, 8.8k
Although she’s a strong technical striker, Germaine de Randamie is facing Raquel Pennington who is widely considered one of the toughest girls in the division. I’m not expecting Randamie to land in volume or land takedowns, and her ITD line is poor at +330.
There just aren’t many options for Randamie to score well on DraftKings and she’s priced up at 8.8k, making her far too expensive to consider.
There are so many strong options in her pricing tier and Randamie is in a fantasy-limiting matchup, so she will be my fade of the week and it’s not a difficult call to make.