UFC Houston: Bermudez vs. Zombie Quick Picks
Welcome to another edition of the UFC Quick Picks!
There’s so many moderate to heavy favorites on this card that roster construction becomes super interesting and more challenging than prior weeks. Myself and gravycakes were on Grinders Live this week in which we broke down all the fights, as well as general roster construction. You can watch that podcast here.
I also broke down each fight in full in written format, and have expert rankings from some of the best players posted in Premium, which you can find here.
That will also get you access to Projections, Ownership, Chat and more for only $5.99, or you can purchase a package of all the February events for only $14.99!
Make sure to follow me on Twitter at BrettAppley for all the latest updates.
Onto the fights!
Cash Game Plays
1. Jessica Andrade, $9,300
I don’t think there are any locks on this card, but Jessica Andrade is someone you should strongly consider playing in cash games. Why? She’s the heaviest favorite on the card at -525, and while those odds may be a bit long, it’s hard to argue against a massive Vegas favorite longterm.
Andrade is taking on former a UFC fighter and current Invicta champion making her second stint debut in Angela Hill, who has hype of her own coming into this fight, but it’s a tough matchup. Hill is athletic, she’s a volume striker, but she’s had deficiencies in her grappling game which have cost her. She may have worked on that in her time outside the UFC, but Andrade is so much more physical.
Andrade can use her wrestling to get the fight to the floor, which is important for DK scoring, but she can also land damaging shots on the feet. With an ITD prop of -102, she has upside and a high enough floor that I think she makes for a good target in cash games.
2. Dennis Bermudez, $8,400
The main event this week is Dennis Bermudez against “The Korean Zombie” Chan Sung Jung. You may not have heard of Jung but his last fight was against Jose Aldo for the title more than three years ago. He had to give military service to his country and he’s hopefully healed up a bit, but it’s going to be tough for him to come back in this spot.
We have no idea how Jung will look if he’s at his best off the layoff, but the fact that he’s vs. Bermudez and in a five-round fight makes it even tougher. Jung is a great action fighter with good striking and a strong submission grappling game, but Bermudez has a big pace advantage over 25 minutes and he’s a very strong wrestler.
The worst case scenario for Bermudez is that he gets caught early on the feet or with a sub in transition, but otherwise, he should win this fight and score well. He’s a -200 favorite which is good for 8.4k, and he has an ITD prop of +270. Even in a decision, those takedowns and passes will add up and he’ll score well enough.
Tournament Plays
1. Curtis Blaydes, $8,900
One of my favorite tournament plays this week is Curtis Blaydes, who’s taking on Adam Milstead in the HW division. Outside of the obvious that heavyweight fights are likely to end in a finish, I think Blaydes is a legitimate prospect.
He lost his debut against Francis Ngannou by TKO (doctor stoppage), which I don’t hold against him. He beat up Cody East after that and he performed as well as I hoped. He’s a great wrestler for this division and that’s his big advantage against Milstead, who is smaller and not a very strong grappler.
Blaydes odds to win are -270 and his ITD prop sits at -120 which is one of the best on the card, and I think his upside is even higher based on his grappling. If he gets the fight to the ground early, I think he can score a first or second round TKO which would probably push him over 110 points, and I love that for 8.9k. There’s still risk because it’s a heavyweight fight and Misltead is aggressive on the feet, but I’m looking for upside and Blaydes has it.
2. Chas Skelly, $8,800
Another one of my favorite tournament targets is Chas Skelly, who can be had for 8.8k. He’s taking on Chris Gruetzemacher, who came from the Artem Lobov season of TUF. In fact, he got KO’d by Lobov on the show.
He did win his UFC debut against Abner Lloveras, in a sloppy, high-paced decision. If he wins here, it’s going to be in a similar manner. But Skelly is coming off the best win of his career in a 20 second submission over Maximo Blanco.
Skelly has the wrestling and grappling I’m looking for, and he’s aggressive. Gruetzemacher had his back taken multiple times against Lloveras, who couldn’t do much from there. If Skelly gets his back, or gets him on the mat, I think there’s a good chance he locks in a choke.
Skelly is a -270 favorite with an ITD prop of +107, and I’m hopeful he can use his grappling to secure a finish.
Fade of the Week
1. Tecia Torres, $9,000
I like Tecia Torres as a fighter and I think she’ll probably win here against Bec Rawlings, but I’m not willing to pay the 9k price tag on here. She’s never finished a fight in her career, so the upside simply isn’t there.
This fight is extremely likely to go to a decision, and Torres isn’t active enough or powerful enough all around to top 90 points in a decision. If you must take her in cash, I think it’s OK for the high floor but I really like better options everywhere. Going up to OSP or Andrade in GPP, or below to the bevy of options like Blaydes or Skelly is the right play in my opinion.
And if you’re looking for a cash play, I’d rather take Andrade or Grasso, or once again drop down. I’m not sure if she’ll be popular but whatever ownership she has, I will have less, and she’s my fade for this week.