UFC Odds: Picks for Barboza vs. Chikadze & More Vegas 35 Predictions
Barboza vs. Giga UFC Odds & Picks
Two top 10 featherweights will do battle on Saturday night in the main event of the evening, as ninth ranked Edson “Junior” Barboza (-120) will take on tenth ranked Georgian striking sensation Giga Chikadze (+100). It is a fascinating matchup because both fighters are talented strikers with well developed kicking skills and a diverse arsenal of technically sound striking combinations at distance. Giga Chikadze is the latest toy in the toy box having converted himself from a Glory kickboxer into a ranked fighter in the stacked featherweight division. Meanwhile, Edson Barboza has amassed a UFC record of 11 wins and eight losses since making his promotional debut in 2010 despite fighting among the toughest schedules in all of mixed martial arts. Giga has had only six UFC bouts, but he has managed to come through as an underdog three times, including against Jamall Emmers (+160), Brandon Davis (+145), and Omar Morales (+130). It is also interesting to note that while Edson has been a profitable fighter to back across his 19 fight UFC career, betting on him as a favorite (he has been favored to win 13 UFC bouts) has been a losing proposition over the same period. Barboza is a fighter we would much rather back as an underdog, as he has returned a nearly 14% ROI to his underdog bettors across six dog opportunities in the UFC.
Pick: Barboza over Chikadze by 4th Rd. TKO
Ultimately, I am going to have to side with Edson Barboza in this spot as he is far more proven UFC commodity. Barboza has been facing the best the UFC has had to offer over an 11 year period, accruing scalps from respected UFC strikers like of Shane Burgos, Paul Felder, Anthony Pettis, Beneil Dariush, and Dan Hooker. Chikadze on the other hand was a somewhat middling kickboxer from 2010 until December of 2015, when he made and lost his professional debut in mixed martial arts at 155lb. I believe that in a protracted striking affair with fire power on both sides, the variability in this fight outcome will be high. As the old adage goes, “anything can happen in four ounce gloves.”
Best Bet: Under 4.5 Rounds (-130)
This is ultimately a fight that I will target for an Under 4.5 Rds. (-130) or no play at all. Edson Barboza seems to be a very popular play this week, and for understandable reasons. He throws powerful strikes, he has better pure pocket boxing and combination striking, and he is more likely than Chikadze to pursue or achieve takedowns. That being said, I think Edson is comfortable in a stand up fight and will put himself in harm’s way in order to try to take Chikadze out in spectacular fashion.
Advice: If you weren’t interested in playing Barboza at -106, there is no reason to chase the number now at -120. I think this may be a good spot to pass on, enjoy as a spectator, and collect data for future bets.
I believe this is a tricky main card from a betting perspective, as three bouts will be featuring contestants from the return season of the Ultimate Fighter (TUF), all of whom have limited sample sizes against mid-level professionals outside of the Ultimate Fighter house. Therefore, I am going to tell you to sit back and enjoy those fights, and we’ll run through quick hits across the card.
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Bryan Battle (-175) vs. Gilbert Urbina (+150)
Pick: I think Battle should have plenty of opportunities to land hard blows on the feet as Urbina showed himself to be extremely unpolished on the feet against Tresean Gore, walking onto jabs and getting knocked down four times.
Best Bet: I don’t hate a bet on the Bryan Battle money line (-175) but backing professionals with a 5-1 record at a chalk price seems like you’re asking for a sweat. That being said, I think Battle is a superior prospect to Urbina and I may end up playing him by fight time.
Ricky Turcios (-155) vs. Brady Hiestand (+134)
Pick: I am expecting a highly competitive scrap between these two combatants. Turcios has more wins against higher quality competition, but Hiestand did his best work on TUF, earning a gritty and high quality win over the far more experienced Josh Rettinghouse over 3 Rds. I think that Hiestand may be able to bank early rounds with his aggressive takedowns and relentless top pressure. However, if Hiestand’s cardio begins to suffer as it has in previous losses, that could spell disaster against a pace-centric mad man like Turcios.
Best Bet: Dog or pass position. Turcios is very hittable, able to be wrestled, and often fool hardy in his assessments of how to approach a ground position (i.e. conceding bottom position and working from back rather than actively trying to get up from bottom). If his cardio holds up better, he certainly can win here. But if Brady has made cardio improvements, he should be able to produce three rounds of effective pressure.
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Kevin Lee (-155) vs. Daniel Rodriguez (+135) @ 170lb
Pick: While it may seem counter-intuitive, I have to go with Daniel Rodriguez in this spot as an underdog. D-Rod has been staying very active in the UFC, having accrued six fights since 2020 began. He last fought 41 days ago, picking up a knockout win over Preston Parsons in the first round. During that same period, Kevin has been rehabbing major knee surgeries, resting rib injuries, and trying to find the answer for his fighting woes. It will have been 531 days since the last time Kevin Lee fought when he stepped in the octagon. Lee has never had tremendous cardio, and we know that implementing wrestling and grappling heavy game plans against larger opponents is known to be difficult from a cardiovascular perspective. I believe that the longer this fight stays standing, the more likely that D-Rod will hurt Kevin and finish him or outland him to a decision. Unless Kevin is able to wet blanket him for 15 minutes or find a submission, it should be a great scrap with a live underdog. As a fight fan, I am rooting for Kevin Lee to show up looking like the best version of himself. As a bettor, I am expecting Lee to be roughly the same fighter we have seen thus far in the UFC except significantly more undersized at welterweight.
Best Bet: D-Rod better than +130. I will likely end up with a ticket on Daniel Rodriguez this week, just waiting to see how this line progresses. Rodriguez is the bigger guy who has been staying far more active and has a functional game for the division. I don’t blame you if you are on Kevin Lee, but I think it is hard to bank on his functionality at welterweight give the limited sample size and the poor previous results (gas and smash from RDA).
Andre Petroski (-600) vs. Michael Gillmore (+400) @ 185lb
Pick: Petroski over Gillmore via SUB1
I believe Andre Petroski (-600) should absolutely steamroll Michael Gillmore (+400) on the ground as Gilbert Urbina was able to do in the TUF House. I predict he will submit Gillmore in the 1st Rd., but I see no effective way of targeting this fight as the SUB prop is (-105).
The Play: PASS. I can see the Petroski in Rd. 1/2 tickets. Sloppy fight. I want no part of it.
Makhmud Muradov (-700) vs. Gerald Meerschaert III aka GM3 (+450)
Pick: Muradov over Gerald Meerschaert via KO2
Rounding out the main card is another middleweight matchup between submission ace GM3 and the Money Team’s (yes, Floyd Mayweather’s Money Team) lone mixed martial arts representative, Makhmud Muradov. Muradov is the faster, more accurate striker, and he should be able to find the chin of Meerschaert and get him out of there at some point. However, through three outings, Muradov has struggled to put opponents away early, finding finishing shots only 66% of the time and normally long after the opponent is tired and frustrated.
The Play: Dog or pass. While it would be hard to pick against Muradov, I think the idea that there is any value in betting Muradov at this point is a fantasy. Current odds suggest Muradov wins this fight 87.5% of the time. Those are the kind of bets you can never get wrong if you want to be profitable in the long term. Something to keep in mind!
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