UFC Sacramento: VanZant vs. Waterson Quick Picks
Welcome to another edition of the UFC Quick Picks! This is a great card in Sacramento and I wish I could go, but sadly, I will be once again watching from my couch/computer.
Thanks to everyone who has subscribed to the MMA Premium package this year, you have all really blown me away with the level of participation, and I’m hopeful we continue this trend in 2017.
If you want full breakdowns of all UFC Sacramento fights, plus Expert Rankings, Projections, access to Premium chat and more, you can purchase that for $5 here
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Also, keep an eye on the MMA Forums because we may be dropping a pretty fun announcement there soon (hint: It’s a year-long, DFS MMA Championship). Follow me on Twitter at BrettAppley and at DailyFanMMA.
Cash Game Plays
1. Colby Covington, 8.9k
There are several factors as to why I like Colby Covington in cash games, but let’s start with the basics, Covington is the second heaviest favorite on the card at -360. On DraftKings, however, he’s priced at 8.9k, which is fourth highest.
Just based on his odds to win vs. his price, I think you can consider him, but he’s also a blue-chip prospect and someone who could contend for a title down the road. While his striking game isn’t overly developed, he’s an elite wrestler for MMA, and has landed five or more takedowns in three UFC fights.
With the new DK scoring system that should give Covington a high floor, even if he loses. He’s fighting Bryan Barberena, a notorious prospect killer who’s defeated Sage Northcutt and Warlley Alves, and it’s possible he could compete with Covington. But I don’t think he will, Barberena is super tough and gritty but he’s not an overwhelming athlete and he’ll never be able to dominate a fight.
Even against Northcutt, Barberena lost the first round. I think Covington can land a few takedowns and passes on Barberena throughout the fight, and I think he’s a strong cash play at his price.
2. Michelle Waterson, 7.9k
The main event this week is Paige VanZant vs. Michelle Waterson, and as usual, I like targeting five round fights. This fight is close though, which makes it hard to pull out a single fighter for cash games, but I prefer Michelle Waterson.
Part of it comes down to her price, she’s only 7.9k compared to 8.3k of VanZant, and this fight is sitting dead even at -110 for both women. You are getting some discount on Waterson, and she also might be lower owned.
The main reason I like Waterson is that she’s more experienced and I believe technical than VanZant, nearly everywhere the fight goes. On the feet, Waterson is a longtime Karate blackbelt, and while PVZ has shown flashy kicks, I don’t think she can beat Waterson for five rounds. On the ground, VanZant’s size may cause trouble, but Waterson is a strong grappler and we’ve already seen PVZ get dominated in that area.
I doubt one fighter dominates this fight, but I’d be more surprised if VanZant did than Waterson. I expect both girls to land takedowns, passes and strikes but I’m favoring Waterson and I think she makes for a good cash play.
Tournament Plays
1. Mickey Gall, 8.2
There will be a lot of mixed reviews on this pick, but I like Mickey Gall to beat Sage Northcutt this weekend, and I think he makes for a strong tournament play. Gall famously beat CM Punk in his last fight, but that doesn’t tell the story on the kid.
Gall has been training at Tri-Star and will have Firas Zahabi, GSP’s coach, in his corner. Zahabi is one of the best minds in the MMA game, and I think it shows Gall is continuing to grow.
I also believe Gall is a talented grappler, I’ve seen him compete in high level BJJ competitions, and I’m confident he’s better than Northcutt. Of course Northcutt has a striking background, but he finds himself in grappling exchanges every single fight, and he’s almost lost the last two fights because of it. Even in his most recent win, Northcutt’s opponent had a full on armbar, and Northcutt didn’t really know how to defend, he just toughed out of it.
I don’t think either guy is an elite fighter, nor do I think they suck, but I do think Gall can take advantage of Northcutt on the ground and potentially finish the fight. Vegas likes Gall too as a -120 favorite, with an ITD prop of +110. Gall could legitimately be the highest scorer on the card, so even though there’s obvious risk to him, I will have exposure in tournaments.
2. Henrique da Silva, 9k
My next tournament pick is Henrique da Silva at 9k, facing a UFC newcomer in Paul Craig. I always like to target heavy fighters, and this is the only fight that takes place above the 170 pound division, it’s a LHW clash.
Silva has already fought against and finished two opponents in the UFC and I’ve been impressed by him. He’s not a world beater, but he’s a good striker with good durability and cardio, which are all important in this division. Craig doesn’t look great on the feet from the tape I’ve seen, and I think Silva knocks him out if the fight stays standing.
Craig has gotten seven of his eight wins by submission, so that’s where he’ll have the advantage on paper. But I still don’t see it as an easy path to victory, Craig has been taken down multiple times, and most of his wins come off his back or in transition, which isn’t the sign of a dominant grappler
Silva’s ITD prop is great at -160 and he has the best chance to win in the first round on this card. That’s the upside I want in tournaments.
Fade of the Week
1. Urijah Faber, 9.6k
I know plenty of people will be on Urijah Faber, but it’s mostly due to the narrative that he’s fighting in his home town in his last UFC fight before he retires, and I get it, it’s not a terrible path to follow.
But in general, Faber isn’t a guy I love to target because he won’t score many points outside of a finish, and for 9.6k, you can forget about it. There are so many strong plays on this card, but I’m not willing to pay 9.6k on Faber. Even if he scores 100 points, I doubt he’s on the winning lineup, which is really what scares me.
He can definitely win this fight, he’s a huge favorite, but I think you’re putting yourself at a disadvantage by targeting Faber often this weekend.