UFC Vegas 34 Odds: Trevin Jones & The Line That Won't Sit Still
MMA betting analyst Liam Heslin previews one of his favorite fights ahead of UFC Vegas 34. Dive in deep with Liam as he breaks down the Jones vs. Kakhramonov matchup, and gives you insight and betting tips to help pick fights at the sportsbook.
UFC Vegas 34 Preview: Jones vs. Kakhramonov
Since the outset of the COVID-19 pandemic, the Ultimate Fighting Championship has been forced to constantly change plans and adapt as fighters and their teams struggle to remain injury and disease free in advance of their scheduled bouts. Short notice fights represent opportunities for talented regional fighters to burst onto the UFC scene without having to navigate one of the typical promotional vehicles for entry to the big show, like the Ultimate Fighter or Dana White’s Tuesday Night Contender Series.
Bantamweight prospect Trevin “5 Star” Jones has clearly been a massive beneficiary of the pandemic-era, as he was able to step in on short-notice and secure one of the biggest upsets of 2020, besting hyped Russian prospect Timur Valiev as a +430 underdog. After absorbing a hellacious beating in round one, Jones was able to rally in round two to finish a gassing Valiev. Jones collapsed him with a massive lead right hook before following him to the ground with thudding ground and pound shots.
Valiev was lucky to escape the bout with an official “No Contest” after the Nevada State Athletic Commission overturned Jones’ win based on a failed in-competition drug test. Jones tested positive for marijuana metabolites and was forced to serve a four and a half month suspension. Despite the official outcome, the fight proved that Jones was a UFC-caliber fighter with tremendous heart and toughness.
After serving his suspension, Jones was offered a fight with Randy Costa for March sixth of this year. Costa pulled out of the bout due to injury, and in stepped Mario Bautista. Bautista was riding a two-fight win streak that included a second round knockout finish of Miles Johns, who is also a well-regarded prospect. Jones was once again priced as an underdog, this time to the tune of +190, and he once again delivered a second round knockout off of a brutal counter uppercut with the lead right hand.
Since recording his first “official” UFC win, Jones has had the misfortune of losing three scheduled bouts due to cancellation (Tony Kelley, Ronnie Lawernce, and Mana Martinez). The UFC signed a promotional new-comer named Saidyokub Kakhramonov (8-2) to fill in as Jones’ opponent on less than one week’s notice.
UFC Vegas 34 Odds
No lines were available for this fight until Wednesday night of fight week, when Trevin Jones opened as a -300 favorite (75% implied) with Saidyokub Kakhramonov as a +250 underdog (25% implied). According to BestFightOdds.com, the current best market price on Jones is -145 (59.2% implied) while Kakhramonov’s best market price is +125 (44.4% implied).
Wednesday night I made and tracked my first bet on the card, which was a 1.5U bet (1U = 1% Bankroll) on Trevin Jones @ +107 (48.31% implied). Jones was briefly listed as high as +130 (43.5%), meaning the market had moved 31.5% in favor of Kakrhamonov shortly after the line opened. However, after the initial feeding frenzy on Kakrhamonov at plus money, there was a significant market buyback that has entrenched Trevin Jones as about a -150 (60% implied) favorite.
I certainly cannot blame anyone who backed Kakrhamonov at a +250 price tag, as the market recognized he is not a typical short-notice replacement plucked from the regional scene at random. Kakrahamonov’s claim to fame so to speak is that he kept a PFL showcase fight with Umar Nurmagomedov (of Nurgamoedov family fame) competitive despite losing a unanimous decision. His other professional loss was a third round knockout defeat via flying knee at the hands of Pipe Vargas in February of 2019. Despite having early success in that fight, Kakrhamonov was not able to sustain his pace in wrestling or striking, so he was eventually routed and exposed by Vargas as he got more tired. He would eventually succumb to a brutal knee to the head.
Since suffering his defeat to Vargas, Kakhramonov has rifled off two straight knockout wins over solid regional competition. Ironically, both Jones and Kakrhamonov last competed in March of 2021 and secured a victory via second round knockout. This difference being that Jones was preparing to fight Mana Martinez on this date while Kakhramonov was made aware of his opportunity this week.
UFC 34 Betting Tips
I believe that Trevin Jones should be priced somewhere between -150 and -186 in this matchup (60-65% implied) for several reasons. Firstly, Jones is the more proven fighter as both a UFC commodity and as a professional more generally. He has nearly twice the professional experience, he has fought in several five round fights (that have gone the distance, Kakrhamonov has only been scheduled for five rounds once), and he has bested the far higher level of competition. Secondly, Trevin Jones keeps an even, manageable pace whereas his opponent puts out an unsustainable amount of volume early, relying on big actions, overswinging, and non-technical slam takedowns (i.e. Vargas fight).
I expect Jones to be competitive with Kakrhamonov at striking range as he employs a more clever, less predictable striking arsenal despite the fact that he is generally lower volume. Kakrhamnov relies on a fairly basic but consistent power punching approach predicated on landing the 1-2 repeatedly throughout the contest or a flashy single kick (i.e. spinning wheel kick). Jones has proved to be an opportunistic finisher with his striking so far in the UFC, but I believe this matchup may give him an opportunity to show off his slick submission skills. Jones is a black belt in BJJ with four professional submissions, including two that he secured immediately before his UFC signing. Despite losing the first round against Takafumi Otsuka, Jones was able to rally for the second round submission after sweeping to a single leg of his own, finding the trip, taking the back and securing the rear naked choke finish. I wouldn’t be stunned if we saw something similar transpire in this fight, where Kakrhamonov keeps the fight very competitive in round one before his cardio begins to fail him and Jones is able to find an opportunistic finish of his own.
Props are not yet available on this fight, but I would consider targeting the Trevin Jones ITD prop if it is priced anywhere close to its historical antecedents (+800 and +500 against Valiev and Bautista respectively). Most of the money line value has been extracted from Jones at current market price, but if you agree with the more aggressive cap on Jones of -186, there is still a >5% edge available on the market if you shop for the best line. If you want a better price on Jones, I would be patient as more money may come in on Kakhramonov closer to fight time.
- The Pick: Trevin Jones via Submission (Guillotine Choke) in Rd. 2
- The Bet: 1.5U Trevin Jones @ +107*
- The Advice: Wait for props to drop on Jones ITD or FDGTD if you’re upset you missed the plus money opportunity on Trevin Jones. If you are confident in Jones, try to lock down a money line wager better than -150 (60% implied).
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