UFC Vegas 37 Odds: Smith vs. Spann Predictions and Picks
MMA betting analyst Liam Heslin previews UFC Vegas 37 odds for the main event between Anthony Smith and Ryan Spann. Dive in deep with Liam as he gives you his predictions & betting picks for Saturday, September 18, 2021.
Fifteen fights are currently slated to take place this Saturday night (9/18) at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas, Nevada. After a week of down time that left the focus on their shoulder programming, the Dana White Tuseday Night Contender Series, the UFC has returned with a large if lukewarm offering to grease the wheels before next week’s amazing pay-per-view (PPV) offering, UFC 266: Volkanovski vs. Ortega. However, before we turn our attention towards that star studded PPV event, we have a fun slate of fights to break down, none bigger than the main event between ranked light heavyweight contenders Anthony “Lionheart” Smith (#6-ranked contender) and Ryan “Superman” Spann (#11-ranked contender).
UFC Vegas 37 Main Event Preview
Anthony Smith enters this contest on the strength of two consecutive first round finishes over relevant players in the division. This was a stark reversal for Smith, who just prior was on a two fight losing streak, having been controlled by Rakic to a unanimous decision and bludgeoned by Glover Teixeira into a late TKO finish. However, he is now riding a wave of momentum which began last November, when he dispatched Devin Clark with a triangle choke from full guard. He followed up that sensational performance in March with an electrifying main card opener in April at UFC 261. After touching Crute with the hands and establishing a fast, rangy jab, Smith blasted the legs out from under Crute (another ranked light heavyweight contender) with hard low kicks, rendering Crute unable to answer the bell for the second round. Smith has accumulated a 10-6 record in the UFC since debuting with the organization in 2016. Aside from his recent wins over younger prospects, Smith holds finish victories over credible UFC fighters like Alexander Gustaffson, Volkan Özdemir, Shogun Rua, and “Suga” Rashad Evans.
Ryan Spann on the other hand debuted in the UFC in June of 2018 after earning a contract on his second appearance on Dana White’s Tuesday Night Contender Series. His first appearance on Contender Series saw him lose in familiar fashion to a flurry of elbows against the cage at the hands of Karl Roberson (KO1 @ :15). Thankfully for Spann, he was given another opportunity after rattling off three stoppage victories over credible opponents on the regional scene, including Myron Dennis (15-6) and Alex Nicholson (10-4). In his second appearance on Contender Series, Spann made short work (:26 guillotine choke) of Emiliano Sordi, a talented fighter who has been finding some measure of success in the PFL since his loss to Spann. (Professional Fighter’s League) Spann began his run on the main roster with four straight wins, including a decisive club and sub victory over Devin Clark and a lightning fast uppercut KO of Antonio Rogerio Nogueira. When I say Spann lost in “familiar fashion” against Karl Roberson, you can see the eerily similar finish loss he absorbed against Johnny Walker and decide for yourself. Regardless, he was able to bounce back in march of this year, dispatching the hit-or-miss Misha Cirkunov with massive punching power and vicious ground and pound.
UFC Vegas 37 Odds For Smith vs. Spann
Handicapping this fight is a difficult proposition on a number of levels. First and foremost, this is a step up in competition for Ryan Spann any way you slice it. One of Spann’s quality wins in the organization is over Devin Clark, whom Smith demonstrated his class difference against recently. Spann had competitive minutes standing and grappling with Clark in Rd. 1 before securing a second round finish as Clark panicked and winged punches from well outside of range. Smith is a composed fighter who has been in wars, responded to adversity, and demonstrated an ability (if not outright propensity) for clawing his way back into a fight that seems out of reach. Another important note is that Smith is 3 years older than Spann and 4 years deeper into his professional MMA tenure (2008 vs. 2012), but has accrued 51 fights to Spann’s 25 fights, doubling Spann’s professional experience. However, experience, which many refer to as the ultimate currency of combat, is a double edged sword. While Smith has the knowledge, repetitions, and experience of 51 professional fights, he has already incurred a career’s worth of damage, including a truly uncomfortable beating at the hands of Glover Teixeira. In that fight, Smith was stuck in control positions getting punched repeatedly to the point he was spitting out teeth and collecting them by hand during the fight.
My real concern for Anthony Smith in this spot is that he will be exposed as an undersized light heavyweight by someone with a massive frame and decided anthropomorphic advantages. Spann is three years younger, 1” taller (6’5” vs. 6’4”), and has a 5.5” reach adv. (81.5” to 76”). Spann possesses a Knockdown Rate of 3.6% with 0% Knockdowns absorbed. Smith on the other hand Knocks opponents down and gets knocked down at the same rate, 1.2%. These data points combined with what I saw on tape lead me to believe striking exchanges will be competitive; while Smith should be able to lead the dance with technicality, he will be live to get countered as Spann has the mobility, the natural punching power, and the hand speed to deliver devastating strikes on the lead and on the counter. If I am in Anthony Smith’s corner, I am looking to low kick Spann hard early and often; Spann has thrown very few low kicks in his UFC tenure, so Smith could try to exploit that phase of striking to avoid the more dangerous punching exchanges. I would also encourage Smith to work behind the jab we saw on display in the Crute fight, as Spann is powerful and rangy but not the most technically sound or diverse striking threat.
I think that the pure grappling in this spot favors Anthony Smith big time, but we have also seen that Anthony Smith can be grounded, forced to turtle, and remain stuck underneath for large, critical portions of a fight. I backed Aleksander Rakic to beat Anthony Smith for that exact reason, and he made it look pretty simple and straightforward to out wrestle Anthony for three rounds with a conservative game plan. Even against Devin Clark, Smith showed his willingness to play from his back and concede position to look for the finish. I think that the club and sub is Spann’s only path to finding a submission; otherwise, he will be looking to control minutes with his wrestling and create finishing opportunities with his ground and pound. Ryan Spann has had positive metrics so far through 8 UFC fights in the stat category control time domination (63.7%), while Anthony Smith’s been absolutely dominated in control positions for a (-32.1%) control time domination. That being said, I think Anthony Smith’s jiu jitsu black belt will keep him safe from Spann’s attempts, and Smith displayed his improved wrestling in the Clark fight, body locking him to a dominant position before finishing on the ground.
The final decision maker for me here is the ABC’s of fighting, which suggests that you Always Bet on Cardio (shoutout Jon Anik). With the notable exception of emptying the tank early in the Glover fight, Smith is reliable to hold up over longer fights, while Spann has displayed an inability to manage energy and put together a reliable 15 minute effort. This will be his first five round opportunity in the UFC, and while he has been booked and scheduled for 5 rounds on the regional scene, he has only gone the 25 minute distance twice in 5 scheduled 5 round bouts. The other 3 fights ended in the first round twice and the second round once. In other words, twenty four percent of Spann’s total fights (pro. and am. total 29 bouts) have seen Rd. 3 (7/29). Twenty percent of Spann’s pro fights (25 fight sample size) have gone to decision. On the other side, Anthony Smith has seen Rd. 3 in only 23% of his fifty-one professional fights. Moreover, only 10% of his 51 professional fights have gone the distance. In the UFC, only 4 of Smith’s 16 fights have gone the distance and 12 have ended inside the distance (25 % go to DEC). Spann has been finished by his opponent in 4 of 6 professional losses, while Smith has been finished by his opponent 13 times in 16 professional losses.
Smith vs. Spann Picks & Predictions
THE BET: 3.1U Fight Does Not Go To Decision -260
The Prediction: Anthony Smith submits Ryan Spann in Rd. 2
Betting Tip: I think that if you want to target this fight from a money line perspective, I would look for the -165 number on Anthony Smith at BetMGM or the +150 on Spann at DraftKings Sportsbook. This fight hinges on whether or not Anthony Smith can manage the striking at distance or close distance, dirty box, look for takedowns and opportunistic back takes. I think that an Anthony Smith KO is live as well as a submission, because Smith has solid counters, a strong jab, dangerous calf kicks, and powerful clinch knees. He can make this an uncomfortable fight for Spann if he can establish muay thai and wrestling clinch opportunities. However, if he choose to box with Spann at range, he is giving Spann his best path to victory outside of control grappling, which I don’t think Spann will be capable of doing in this spot. If I was going to back either side, I would probably end up targeting a prop market to get more value for less exposure; some of my favorite props here that I have not yet played but am considering are Smith by SUB +385 on Fanduel, Spann Inside the Distance +240 on Draftkings, Spann by KO/TKO +500 on Fanduel, and Fight Doesn’t Start Rd. 3 +130 (where I played it for .77U). That price is now moving, best available line is Fanduel +126. All market prices are according to BestFightOdds.com
The bottom line on my bet is simple. Why try to be a fortune teller in what appears to be a high variance matchup with a clear dynamic? If Spann is able to land explosive shots early he can finish, but if he can’t and he starts panic wrestling and eating shots to the side of the head against the cage, it will be a frustrating loss if you have big money line exposure. We have two fighters who are finish or be finished, and they have 5 rounds with which to work. Fight doesn’t go to decision line opened at -240 and has been bet to -270. I expect that line to close over -300 given the fire power and durability concerns on both sides. I think any line before it crosses that threshold may be playable. If you want to increase risk and decrease exposure, hit the fight doesn’t start Rd. 5 -200 or doesn’t start Rd. 4 -155 (both via Fanduel) are solid options as well in my opinion. I expect this fight to end inside of three rounds, likely in the favor of Anthony Smith. However, I am not ruling out Spann stinging him early, and I am glad I found a bet that covers both outcomes.
My full plays can be found before fight time on my Twitter account @LiamPicksFights, so if I add any props before fight time, that’s where you can find them. God bless, good luck, and enjoy the fights! Good guys vs. the bookies, each and every week.
Image Credit: Imagn