UFC Vegas 38 Odds, Betting Picks and Predictions: Walker vs. Santos
The intrigue of mixed martial arts as a spectator sport is the air of finality that hangs over the contest. To viewers both casual and obsessive in their level of fandom, it is some combination of the “don’t blink or you could miss it” suspense and the degree to which “anything can happen.” With that being said, sometimes it is the most binary and predictable fight that offers the most compelling, violent, rapid conclusion. Johnny Walker and Thiago Santos were booked for the main event of UFC Vegas 38 precisely because they are violent sluggers who can kill or be killed, and who are likely to meet in the middle of the octagon with clashes of punctuated violence until one giant falls.
UFC Vegas 38 Odds: Walker vs. Santos
- Johnny Walker -155
- Thiago Santos +130
The fight does not go the distance line opened at -350 (~78% implied) and was quickly bet up to a market average of -527 (~84% implied). Much like Ryan Spann vs. Anthony Smith from a few weekends back, this light heavyweight bout has enough explosive firepower, sufficient durability concerns, and at least one athlete with poor cardio, making it a fight ripe for a violence bet.
Given that Thiago Santos was one scorecard away from holding a UFC Championship belt in his lone title opportunity, it is certainly understandable why oddsmakers would open the favorite in this spot. Thiago has secured finishes over the likes of current UFC Champion Jan Blachowicz, surging light heavyweight contender Anthony Smith (albeit it 185lb.), and former divisional standout Jimi Manuwa. However, Thiago suffered devastating injuries to both knees in the Jon Jones fight and was sidelined with major knees surgeries as a result. I was able to cash tickets on Glover Teixeira and Aleksander Rakic against Thiago in his last two fights as I expected to see a diminished version and a regression to his mean performances. Before rejuvenating his career in the light heavyweight division, Thiago Santos was a talented but somewhat middling middleweight contender who had just been flatlined by BJJ Black Belt and primary grappler David Branch. Now, post knee surgeries, at an advanced age (37.75 years old), against a much younger and longer opponent, I find it hard to back Thiago Santos from a money line perspective as a favorite. Against Rakic, Santos looked very measured to a point of being lifeless at points, and his blitzing attacks which once inspired fear were often countered, thwarted, or evaded entirely.
Unfortunately for gamblers, Johnny Walker does not represent the most bankable fighter to rely on from a fight IQ or a durability perspective. Walker is a quintessential glass cannon in MMA. He has a remarkable 10.3% KD rate for, but a piss-poor 9.4% KD rate against. Even in fights that Walker wins, like the Ryan Spann fight, Walker was the one who absorbed 2 knockdowns before finding the KO finish. Walker is built for excitement, securing 15 KOs and 2 SUBs in 18 professional wins for a 94% finish rate. However, he is not built for the long haul, having been finished in 80% of his pro losses, often in brutal fashion in the first round (i.e. Corey Anderson or Henrique Silva fights). Even in the decision loss to Nikita Krylov, Walker slowed down tremendously and was taking big deep breaths between the first and second rounds.
The things to like about Johnny Walker in this matchup are physical and stylistic. Walker is reliable to come forward with violent bursts of explosive offense like flying knees, high kicks, long straight punches, and hellacious clinch strikes (both elbows and knees). He also has a massive frame, standing 6’6” tall (4” height adv.), with an 82” reach (6” reach adv.), and a chiseled athletic physique. As the significantly bigger and younger fighter, Johnny Walker certainly has some attributes that you want to see in a big plus money underdog. The cardio limitations of Walker are what make him difficult to back in his first five round contest, especially when coupled with the questionable durability. We have also seen that the threat of wrestling has been an effective tool for pressuring Walker, but Santos averages fewer than one takedown per fifteen minutes on less than two attempts on average.
Ultimately, while this fight is hard to read in terms of who will win, it seems to me fairly straightforward how this fight is most likely to play out. These fighters are likely to engage early and often until one man falls, and I think our betting priorities should be geared towards exploiting the predictable nature of this violence. The way I have chosen to target that is multifaceted.
UFC Vegas 38 Betting Tips
One of my biggest tracked bets on this event will be the Fight Does Not Start Rd. 4 (alternatively listed as Fight Ends in Rd. 1, 2 or 3) at -240. I put down a 2.5U bet at -240 believing that -400 (80% indication) is closer to accurate. With tremendous finishing power on both sides and a combined 30 KO wins and 6 KO losses between them, the fight to end by KO/TKO at-360 may be a sensible buy up option if you have a larger bankroll and want to shorten the price on FDGTD at -500. I think that if you are convicted on the Thiago Santos line it makes sense to play him straight at the -155 figure available on Draftkings because his ITD line offers very little additional value (-120 best market price). However, for those with access to Fanduel Sportsbook you can still bet the boosted Santos to win by KO/TKO line at +130 (rest of the market +105 best available). If you are convicted on the Walker side the money line value has been totally extracted at +133, but his ITD line at +210 seems like it may be worth a small play. I truly believe that Walker is a first-round fighter (at most a 2 round fighter) so Walker to win in Rd. 1 at +470 on Fanduel is a no-brainer as a hedge if you’re big on Santos or as a play if you’re trying to maximize value on Walker. I also think Walker Rd. 1/2 at +275 is a better value than the +133 available on his money line.
Reasoning: Despite believing that Thiago Santos is the more skilled fighter in every facet of MMA, I believe that this is a tough matchup for him at his advanced age and his diminished physical capacities. Without his power and explosiveness, a lot of the dynamism has seeped from Thiago’s game and left him with an uninspiring kick-boxing offering. Santos will need to sting Walker with an early counter or proactively grapple in order to avoid the four minute barrage of effective violence that the larger, younger man will be bringing on the feet. I believe that Santos would have been a nightmare matchup for Walker earlier in his career, but at this point, he may be a manageable task. The UFC obviously want to build Johnny Walker as he is a marketable, interesting character in a division bereft of youth and excitement. I think the matchmakers are seeing what I am seeing; a lesser version of Thiago Santos ripe for exploitation by future title contenders (see Rakic/Texeria fights). Even a weathered, older Glover Texeira was able to survive the best efforts of Thiago and find a finish. Rakic fought a measured game plan with patience and tact to win a fifteen-minute decision, which we will not see from Walker. I expect a car crash in the middle of the octagon with the larger, newer vehicle coming out damaged but ultimately victorious. The longer the fight goes, the more it favors Thiago, but I expect violence early and often.
Prediction: Johnny Walker defeats Thiago Santos via KO1 (Head kick/GNP Punches)
My Tracked Bets:
- 2.5U Walker/Santos Fight Doesn’t Start Rd. 4 -240
- .51U Johnny Walker ML 195
- .19U Walker Rd. 1 +470
Tracked Exposure: 3.2U
Untracked Degeneracy:
- .25U Walker Rd. 1/2 +275
- 2U Walker/Santos Ends VIA KO/TKO -370
Untracked Exposure: 2.25U
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