UFC Vegas 39 Odds, Betting Picks and Predictions: Dern vs. Rodriguez
MMA betting analyst Liam Heslin previews UFC Vegas 39 odds for the main event between Mackenzie Dern and Marina Rodriguez. Dive in deep with Liam as he gives you his predictions & betting picks for Saturday, October 9, 2021. For the rest of his picks, sign up at Scores and Odds
UFC Vegas 39 Odds: Dern vs. Rodriguez
- Mackenzie Dern -182 (Unibet)
- Marina Rodriguez +165 (BetMGM)
I believe in a very simple betting philosophy; own the wins, own the losses. Last week we whiffed big on the main event, predicting that Johnny Walker would be aggressive early and force a kill or be killed style on Thiago Santos. Instead, the pair engaged in a staring match of sorts, punctuated by infrequent, timid punching exchanges and outside low kick exchanges for twenty-five minutes. My most confident prediction was that the fight would end inside the distance, so I was disappointed to see the lack of engagement, but that is always a danger when laying chalk on a finish.
That being said, this weekend’s main event is also very compelling to me on paper. Marina Rodriguez has been fighting professionally since 2015, accruing an impressive 6 KO/TKO victories, including over credible UFC talent Amanda Ribas (4-1 UFC). She has only been defeated once via split decision, losing a hard fought battle to former champion and resurgent contender Carla “Cookie Monster” Esparza. After securing a five round win in her last outing at 125lb. against Michelle Waterson, she is returning to the strawweight division for a high stakes matchup with jiu jitsu ace Mackenzie Dern. Dern has been fighting professionally since 2016, accruing an 11-1 record as a pro including 7 wins via SUB. Dern began fighting professionally after proving herself to be one of the best competitors in the history of Brazilian jiu jitsu, and arguably the greatest women’s grappler of all time.
This fight seems fairly dichotomus in one respect; despite Mackenzie Dern’s slow and steady progress as a striker, we can expect that she will be the less technical, less polished striker with fewer layers to her striking arsenal. This is especially true in terms of her defensive striking capabilities. Dern has proved to be somewhat hittable through 7 UFC bouts, absorbing nearly the same amount of strikes as she lands (+.57 sig strike differential through). Her come forward style and aggression have allowed more patient strikers like Amanda Ribas and Virna Jandiroba to find some success with their straight punches, most especially the jab. I believe that the singlest biggest advantage for Rodriguez in this fight is her patient, voluminous striking approach. If she is able to keep this fight upright, she should be able to use pressure, cage position, and her anthropomorphic advantages (2” height and reach advantage) to snipe Mackenzie coming in, sting her with punches, and make her hesitant to move forward with impunity.
Conversely, Rodriguez’s technical superiority on the feet is matched by Dern’s technical superiority on the ground. Dern has secured a diverse array of submission finishes in mixed martial arts, including chokes, joint manipulations, and leg entanglements. She has also demonstrated some ability to secure offensive takedowns including in her most recent outing against Nina Nunes. Once on the ground, Dern is one of the most lethal and technical submission grapplers in the organization; she can pass guard, advance positions, threaten subs, secure control positions, and chain attacks together. If Mackenzie is on her back playing guard, on the feet securing the clinch, or in top position on the ground, she is live to finish the fight in rapid fashion.
Strike vs. Grappler
This matchup is particularly interesting because it is an archetypal striker vs. grappler matchup at the highest of levels in women’s MMA. When Dern has struggled in fights, it has been against ladies that could match her in the grappling (i.e. Amanda Ribas & Virna Janidroba) and score points and damage striking at distance. When Rodrigez has struggled in fights, it has been against pressure forward grapplers with decent durability and a willingness to absorb damage to get inside (i.e. Esparza, Calvillo, Markos). Rodriguez has one split decision loss and two draws as a result of her inability to prevent takedowns and control time. Rodriguez has a -20% control percentage differential (comparing her to her opponents) while Dern has a +12% control percentage differential. Marina spends almost 30% of her total fight time in control positions, allowing an average of 1.7 takedowns per fifteen minutes of fight time. The data on this fight leaves us with a difficult choice to make: do we back the striking prowess of Marina Rodriguez and her .6% KD rate vs. the 38% striking defense of Mackenzie Dern, or do we back Mackenzie Dern to secure control positions and submission attempts on the less qualified grappler?
Perhaps it is my grappler’s bias showing, but I believe that a developing striker with world class grappling is much more likely to find her win condition than the dangerous striker with an inability to keep the fight upright and prevent grappling advances. Dern is the kind of grappler that only needs one mistake or one opportunity to bring her game to bear, and I expect that that opportunity will present itself at least once on Saturday night. I believe that Dern will blitz forward early, wade through damage if necessary to get her hands on Rodriguez in the clinch. I believe if she is able to do so she will secure a takedown in the first two rounds and become the first woman to finish Marina Rodriguez in competition. Dern is the younger (by 6 years; 28 vs. 34), marketable, rising contender in this division while Rodriguez is something of an elder stateswoman defined by her inability to keep fight standing at critical junctures of the fight. Both Randa Markos and Cynthia Calvillo were able to exploit Marina so thoroughly on the ground they were awarded 10-8 rounds that ultimately cost Marina the win in fights in which she broadly won minutes standing. I don’t think Mackenzie will settle for a 10-8 based on damage and attrition. Dern will be subhunting and easily passing if this fight hits the ground; with twenty-five minutes for Dern to work, I like her chances to find the SUB.
That being said, the longer the fight goes on, the more sweat and blood could become a factor (lubricant for escaping SUB & takedown attempts). Rodriguez has demonstrated an ability to fight hard for five rounds, whereas this is Mackenzie’s first foray into a UFC main event and a scheduled five five-minute rounds. The longer Mackenzie spends stuck at range with Rodriguez, the more likely Rodriguez is to make reads on her movements, intercept takedown attempts with knees, elbows, and uppercuts. Mackenzie should be pressing her advantages from the opening bell or she could find herself getting drowned in volume striking down the stretch. Dern’s cardio, while looking improved in recent bouts, has never been the strongest part of her game. It will be interesting to see how Dern performs if she is forced into an extended battle with Rodriguez. I would think that the longer the fight goes, the more it favors Marina. However, Dern has shown toughness, durability, and a willingness to bite down and come forward, so even if she is getting lit up by Rodriguez, I don’t think it is a certainty that Rodriguez will finish. Dern has a .6% KD rate against her, but she has never been finished in mixed martial arts, so I could see Marina outpointing her over five rounds just as much as I can see Marina finding a mid to late round TKO from attritional volume.
UFC Vegas 39 Betting Picks
I bet Mackenzie Dern in this spot, but I wouldn’t necessarily recommend people follow me on the play. My bets are as follows:
.25U Dern ITD +115
.5U Dern RD. 1 +500
1U Dern SUB +150
All of those lines have been rightly steamed, and the market is now pricing this fight fairly appropriately. Dern is sitting -165 (62.25%) to -180 (64.25%) on the money line. Dern to win by SUB is +100 (50%) and Rd. 1 is +320. I would argue that on the money line, Rodriguez may be the smarter bet because she is slightly more proven and has more potential paths to victory. However, I think ultimately Dern is likely to roll here, so I will be sticking with my current tickets. If I was to add anything at this point, I would consider the Under 2.5 rounds, which maximizes my prediction on Dern early whilst covering the outcome that Marina tags her and puts her away early.
PREDICTION: Dern Submits Rodriguez via RNC in Rd. 1
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